Now that the byes are all done, each NFL team has just four games remaining. Everybody has something to play for, whether they're competing for a playoff spot in either of the hotly-contested conference races or hoping to build momentum for next season before landing a top-10 pick.
For this week's bold predictions, we're focusing on the biggest storylines in the AFC, since two teams with 10-game winning streaks face arguably their toughest challenge yet, and yet that pales in comparison to the return of Philip Rivers, who has rejoined the Colts in the wake of Daniel Jones' Achilles tear.
The Bengals may be toast, but they'll drag the Ravens with them
If any Bengals or Ravens fans had a nightmare strong enough to wake them up before the season started, this is pretty much what it would have looked like. This has been a worst-case scenario season for both would-be contenders, as each of their All-Pro quarterbacks has missed multiple weeks due to injury, while the teams around them have failed to do their own job to elevate them into contention.
After being the victims of a literal and figurative avalanche of snow and points in Buffalo last week, the Bengals are, for all intents and purposes, dead. Even a four-game winning streak to end the season would only get them to 8-9, though now that I say that, it could, given what we've seen from the Steelers and Ravens, be enough to win the division.
The Ravens were among the Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, and they've done well to fight back from the 1-5 hole they dug themselves. Even during their five-game winning streak though, they didn't look like the kind of dominant team that everyone expected them to be. That's been borne out as they've lost to their two most hated rivals, the Bengals and the Steelers, in the past two weeks.
Lamar Jackson just doesn't look like the same guy that won two MVPs. Long one of the most electric players in the league, he doesn't have a single run of 20 yards or more this season. He also has few weapons in the passing game, and he's only had two games all year where he wasn't sacked multiple times.
Despite all evidence to the contrary, the betting markets still believe in Baltimore. They're favored this week in Cincinnati despite the Bengals blowing their doors off just two weeks ago, and I'm not sure why. Sure, Cincy's defense is historically bad, but the Ravens don't have the weapons to take advantage of it. Josh Allen put on his Superman cape last week and the Bills defense came up with some huge plays, but when Lamar goes into a phone booth these days, all that comes out is Clark Kent.
The Ravens got carved up by a washed Aaron Rodgers last week, so just imagine what Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase will do to them. If the Steelers win on Monday night, this division might just about be a wrap.
The Bills exact revenge on the Patriots
The Patriots are 11-2, and they're returning from their bye with a home game against a team they already beat. Their fans are going to be juiced up beyond belief. Drake Maye has been phenomenal, and Mike Vrabel has once again proven himself to be an outstanding coach. Those factors alone should be enough to ensure a New England win on Sunday.
Maybe it's because I just watched all 275 minutes of Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair this weekend, but I have revenge on my mind, and I'm sure the Bills do, too. The AFC East turned on a dime when the Patriots went into Buffalo and walked out with a primetime win in Week 5, and as the Bills have scuffled since, the Pats have kept on rolling.
New England has only lost twice this season, to the Raiders in Week 1 and the Steelers in Week 3. Both results seem like tremendous flukes that would flip drastically with a rematch, but since then, this young team has gotten over its growing pains and proven that it knows how to win.
So does Josh Allen, and he's the reason why I'm going with the Bills here despite believing that the Patriots have the superior roster and superior coaching. Allen is the one guy in the league I refuse to bet against, and he'll have all the motivation in the world to prove that he's not ready to turn over control of the division just yet.
The Patriots won't make it easy on him by trying to take away his big plays. Meanwhile, the Bills' run defense will struggle to get Maye and company off the field. Expect a game where each team takes the ball and methodically marches down the field over and over. This feels like a 31-28 kind of game where neither team punts more than a time or two. Give me Allen and the Bills to find a way.
The Broncos hold serve at home in a possible Super Bowl preview
There are so many great games this week, but only one features a possible Super Bowl preview. The Broncos are the current 1-seed in the AFC with an 11-2 record, while the Packers are leading the NFC North and just a half-game behind the Rams for the 1-seed after last week's huge win over the Bears.
Denver hasn't lost at home this season, and yet the Packers are favored in this game. Green Bay is a complete team, especially when Jordan Love looks the way he has lately. They can run the ball, they find explosive plays in the passing game, and led by Micah Parsons, they have one of the best pass-rushes in the league.
I say "one of" because that title clearly goes to the Broncos. Denver has 11 more sacks than the next closest team, and they also have arguably the league's best secondary, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, who returned two week ago after missing time with a pec strain.
The Broncos rarely blow teams out, but like the Chiefs last year, they have an almost spooky ability to win when the going gets tough. Eight of their 10 wins in their ongoing streak have been by one score, and Bo Nix has come up clutch in the fourth quarter time and again.
The Packers won last week, but they nearly allowed the Bears to steal the game from them in the second half. That's not something they can afford to do against the Broncos, but the problem is they'll also have a tougher time getting out to a big early lead against this defense, especially since Josh Jacobs is less than 100 percent with a knee injury that he's expected to play through.
That will put more on Love's plate, but against the Bears he benefited from facing very little pressure. Green Bay did a tremendous job of protecting him when Dennis Allen sent the blitz, and that's where Love hit many of his big plays. The Broncos won't need more than their front four to apply pressure, plus they have the corners to stay with the speedy Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, who looked good in his return to action last week.
This is going to be a low-scoring game, but the Broncos' home field advantage, coupled with their ability to win close games, gives them the edge.
Philip Rivers holds his own against one of the league's best defenses
Though he hasn't been named the starter just yet, everyone is expecting Philip Rivers to get the call after the Colts made the (Desperate? Inspired?) decision to re-sign him this week. The man is an actual grandfather, so is there any way he can save the Colts from a late-season freefall?
In one respect, Rivers is coming into a great situation. The Colts have had the No. 1 scoring offense throughout the year, and that was with Daniel Jones at quarterback. They've relied on the do-everything ability of Jonathan Taylor to a large degree, but in Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, they also have a very capable receiving corps, not to mention Tyler Warren as their standout rookie tight end.
On the other hand, this Seahawks defense is a nightmare. Just like the unit that Mike Macdonald oversaw when he was the defensive coordinator of the Ravens, this group is stout up front, can get after the quarterback, and features a ball-hawking secondary capable of embarrassing opposing quarterbacks and winning games themselves.
The Seahawks are favored by 13.5 points in this game, and they've won their last three at home by just under 19 points per game. I actually think the Colts can hang around in this one, though.
Rivers has never had any athleticism, so it doesn't bother me that he's probably been watching Bluey from his couch as much or more than he's been working out. He was always a smart quarterback and a fiery competitor, and I expect Shane Steichen to draw up a lot of high-percentage throws for him. Taylor is the great equalizer, because he's one of the few backs in the league who can be tasked with taking 30 touches. He'll be a workhorse, and having him and Warren as safety valves for when Rivers feels pressure should keep the Seahawks from making game-changing defensive plays.
Playing at home, I think the Seahawks will find a way to squeeze this one out in a game that will be much closer than the spread. This isn't the time of the season for moral victories, but with Rivers under center, the Colts will leave this one feeling like they have a chance in the final weeks to sneak back into the playoffs.