The busiest player transaction period of the NFL offseason is over, and the next flurry won’t come until roster cutdowns just before the season. But some front offices still have a lot of work to do in the interim.
The coming months will be decisive for certain organizations who are facing critical contractual decisions on potential blockbuster extensions, especially at the quarterback position. Frankly, none of these three situations is getting nearly as much attention in the media as they warrant, but they are the talk of NFL salary cap/negotiating circles, and the outcomes with these teams and these QBs could have a massive impact on future talks between other teams and their passers.
So, if people are watching these situations, they are certainly gossiping about them, and plenty of other general managers and personnel executives have strong opinions about how they'll play out. Here's what I'm hearing.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
This is the most pivotal contractual issue in the entire NFL, and it’s not even close. A should-be three-time MVP, who has always gotten his deals 15-plus months after other top quarterbacks in the same situation — like Josh Allen, again — now has a $90 million cap hit in 2027 after the Baltimore Ravens had to restructure his deal before the start of free agency, because league sources said they got nowhere on a new deal.
There seems to be but one solution here: a five-year, fully guaranteed mega-deal that surpassed Dak Prescott’s $60M per year by some significant margin. Everyone I speak to, including other contract negotiators, GMs and agents, believe Jackson has the Ravens check-mated with a no trade and no tag clause. What they can’t figure out is how it got to this point in the first place, again.
“They didn’t have much leverage before the restructure,” one GM said, “and now they don’t have any. You either sign him before the season or there’s a good chance he’s not there in 2027.”
Jackson turned down multiple short-term fully guaranteed deals in his last negotiation, sources said, and was adamant then that well more than three years had to be fully guaranteed at signing. That’s not changing now. “He has them by the balls,” another GM said. "He doesn’t have to sign anything he doesn’t want to sign, and they can’t carry him at $90M (in 2027).”
The Ravens haven’t learned from past mistakes, and Jackson has already requested a trade in the past. The next four months are crucial for this franchise. We suspect it gets done, but if it bleeds into the season, look out. What are the Ravens waiting for?
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mayfield has performed like a fringy- MVP-ish QB for spells the past few seasons, and the Buccaneers love his guts and verve. Signing him proved to be sage. But now he’s over the age of 30 and coming off a season during which his productivity took a nosedive (injuries were certainly a factor), and he is one year away from being an unrestricted free agent.
So how should they proceed? One longtime personnel executive cautioned, very carefully. But this seems like a solid fit. Tampa remains in a division that looks pretty winnable most years, and they tend to win too many games to pick high enough for a QB derby in the draft. This exec looked at a similar situation with a late-blooming, former top-five QB who became a UFA a year ago.
“I’d try to get a short-term deal, structures like what Seattle did with [Sam] Darnold. I think there are some similarities with the players. You worry about the interceptions, can they get you over the top? It’s not totally similar, and Darnold was on the market and this is an extension. That’s the structure I would be looking at.”
Darnold signed what truly amounted to a two-year, $70 million deal. Mayfield’s last deal averaged $33 million per season. People seem to think this has ample potential to get done.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
The Texans executed the fifth-year option on the former first-round pick ($25 million), but there are buyer-beware signals all over the place with his regression the past two years. His playoff meltdown had rival GMs wondering about his future in Houston.
The overriding reality is that the Texans don’t have to do anything with his deal for years, and other front offices would be shocked if they did. We’ve seen former top-five picks flame out after getting overpaid (Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray), and the Texans have every reason to slow play the situation. Sure, QB salaries always surge, but Texans general manager Nick Caserio is pretty shrewd, and it’s seen as doubtful he gets lulled into anything until seeing at least another season from his QB.
“Nick’s not going to make the mistake the Dolphins and Cardinals made,” the first GM said. “He’s not going to be in a hurry to do anything. Stroud has to go out and prove it." Would be pretty surprised if this wasn’t tabled until 2027.
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