The quarterback class of 2024 was one of the most heralded in NFL history. A record six QBs were taken in the first 12 picks, and though some franchises seem to have struck gold, a couple others are wondering if they made a terrible mistake. For the Minnesota Vikings, they took J.J. McCarthy, trading up one spot to the 10th overall pick. And after he missed the entirety of his rookie season due to injury, he was installed as the starter for the 2025 season.
McCarthy is such a fascinating case because, after missing the 2024 campaign, he has only played five games since being named the starter in the offseason. Every quarterback needs time to develop, but with a roster that's otherwise ready to win now, the Vikings are wasting the primes of some of their best players by hitching their wagon to a quarterback that clearly isn't ready.
J.J. McCarthy isn't close to measuring up to his 2024 draft peers
Jayden Daniels was the early leader of the pack in the '24 class, running away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award as he led the Commanders to the NFC title game. Daniels has dealt with myriad injuries this year, but there's still reason to be incredibly high on him if and when he gets healthy.
Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Bo Nix are just apparently not going to lose ever again. The trio has combined to go 23-1 in their last 24 games, and each of their respective teams currently sits in first place.
Maye has emerged as a legit MVP candidate in just his second year, while Williams and Nix have led one fourth-quarter comeback after another by showing incredible resiliency, elusiveness and clutchness.
Then there are Michael Penix Jr. and McCarthy. Penix has struggled to stand out despite being surrounded by weapons, even being briefly benched for a clearly over-the-hill Kirk Cousins at one point, but we'll get to him another day.
McCarthy's struggles have led to severe Vikings regression
The Vikings are 2-3 in McCarthy's five starts, but that doesn't tell the whole story of how he's looked. Accuracy has been a real issue, as he's only completed more than 56 percent of his passes one time. Yesterday was a perfect example, as there were several easy throws that could have moved the chains that he missed badly on.
It needs to be pointed out that his receivers didn't help him with some killer drops, but McCarthy was not good no matter which way you cut it. In only one of his five starts, in fact, has he thrown for more than 158 yards. Yesterday, his home fans booed him and he was dragged on social media by franchise legend Cris Carter.
The knock on McCarthy coming out of Michigan was that he wasn't asked to do much for a dominant Wolverines team that could run the ball at will and stop opposing teams with an elite and physical defense. Would he be able to thrive if he didn't have those advantages in the NFL?
The Vikings do have a good defense, and they made life difficult for Caleb Williams, who also had his struggles yesterday. Brian Flores is a master at making young quarterbacks miserable with his disguised looks. The running game is weak, though, as Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason have combined to lead the league's 25th-ranked ground attack.
Despite having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to throw to, McCarthy hasn't been able to step up.
Sam Darnold really complicates the Vikings' looming decision on J.J. McCarthy
The frustration Vikings fans have with McCarthy is compounded by the season Sam Darnold is having in Seattle. Yesterday's ugly four-interception showing notwithstanding, Darnold has been outstanding for the Seahawks, and before yesterday's game, he led the league in QBR. Even with the loss to the Rams, Seattle is 7-3 and looking good in the NFC playoff race.
Darnold proved last year that a team can win with him, at least in the regular season. He led the Vikings to a 14-3 record and made his first Pro Bowl, and he even finished 10th in the MVP voting thanks to his 36 total touchdowns and 4,319 yards passing. Despite his prolific season, the Vikings made a calculated gamble that they could get similar production and success out of McCarthy, but to this point, it's completely backfired on them.
These days, it's nearly impossible to draft a quarterback near the top of the first round and then sit him for a couple of years. The Vikings were able to get a redshirt year out of McCarthy thanks to his injury. That, combined with Darnold's stellar play, made it so that head coach Kevin O'Connell didn't have to worry about a quarterback controversy derailing his team's season. Wanting to get ahead of that possibility this year, the team opted to go with the young guy.
Ironically, Darnold's career is the exact reason why the Vikings should be patient with McCarthy. Given up on by the team that drafted him, the Jets, Darnold spent time with the Panthers and 49ers before really breaking through in his seventh professional season and his first with the Vikings. Sometimes it takes quarterbacks a while to figure it out, and Darnold's own draft mate Baker Mayfield is another good example. The Browns took him No. 1 overall and then dumped him for Deshaun Watson. Baker also had a couple of stops around the league before turning into an MVP candidate with the Bucs.
If the Vikings jump ship on McCarthy too soon and he goes on to become a franchise quarterback with someone else, they'll look like fools who ignored the lessons that were right in front of them. Not every slow starter evolves into the best version of themselves, though, so if Minnesota keeps McCarthy and he flounders for another year or two, they'll almost have no choice but to blow things up and rebuild.
What are the Vikings' options outside of J.J. McCarthy?
There's also the question of who would replace McCarthy if the Vikings go in another direction. Are they going to pin their hopes to Mac Jones (another late bloomer who has thrived in relief of Brock Purdy this season after flaming out in New England)? Will they make a run at Kyler Murray if the Cardinals move on from him, as expected? Will they try to outbid the Colts for Daniel Jones' services? None of those options sounds very appealing.
The Vikings could also draft another quarterback, but that would be a bad look. There's also no can't-miss prospect in this class, plus the Vikes won't have a top-five pick anyway since they already have four wins.
If the Vikings don't dump McCarthy and they decided to hand the keys to someone else, they have two options remaining. They can ride it out with McCarthy and give him another year, hoping that he makes the leap. Contract-wise, that's the move that makes the most sense. They could also keep McCarthy, but have him sit behind someone like Mac Jones for a year. That kind of delayed redshirt is practically unheard of, but it could allow him the time to have the game slow down without the win-now pressure that comes with being the starting quarterback.
As Darnold has shown, giving up on a quarterback too early can be a catastrophic move. The Jets are still wandering the quarterback wilderness all these years later, and the Browns are no closer to solving their QB dilemma after letting go of Mayfield. If the Vikings commit to McCarthy and he never fulfills his promise, though, it will set the franchise back all the same.
The one silver lining to McCarthy's play is that he's overcome some dreadfully slow starts and stepped up in the fourth quarter. He stole the game against the Bears in Week 1 with two late scoring drives, and he would have done it again yesterday if not for a long Devin Duvernay kick return and a last-second Cairo Santos field goal. He's started slowly this season, but he has seven games left to turn it around and make his case heading into next year.