Joe Burrow is thinking Super Bowl with overconfidence in the Bengals defense

Things have only gone downhill for the Cincinnati Bengals since they made it to the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow's second NFL season. They lost in the AFC Championship Game the following year, went 9-8 while missing the playoffs the two years after that, and went 6-11 in 2025. Yet, despite their record trajectory suggesting otherwise, Burrow believes the Bengals are back on a Super Bowl track ahead of the 2026 NFL season.

"We have everything we need," Burrow said. "We made a big trade for a big-time player. Signed a free agent top safety on the market, and other additions. We'll see how the rookies end up. … But first impressions, we've got guys that care about the game, care about their job, and want to be great. When you have young guys like that and veterans like we do, it's a recipe for success."

Burrow seems to think that after years of the Bengals rostering horrendous defenses, Cincinnati has built up a unit capable of helping the team win a Super Bowl. While Burrow's confidence isn't exactly misplaced, it does feel like a bit much.

Joe Burrow hits the nail on the head regarding Bengals improvement, but with a catch

Burrow isn't wrong with most of what he said. The Bengals did make a trade for a big-time player, Dexter Lawrence, who has long been one of the NFL's best defensive tackles. The Bengals did sign a top free agent safety, Bryan Cook, who has been a key cog in a Super Bowl-caliber Kansas City Chiefs defense for several years. The Bengals did make other additions, signing guys like Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Kyle Duggar.

The Bengals even added to their defense in the draft, using their top two picks on Cashius Howell and Tacario Davis, a defensive end and a cornerback, respectively. While I'm unsure either of those players will be Week 1 starters, both can make an impact in 2026 and offer a good amount of upside. When factoring in possible improvement from Shemar Stewart in his second season, why can't this defense be better?

Is it really at a Super Bowl level, though? That's where Burrow sounds awfully overconfident.

Bengals defense still looks far from complete when discussing Super Bowl

Duke Tobin had his work cut out for him when it came to revamping this Bengals defense because of how bad it was. The Bengals allowed the second-most yards per game (380.9) and third-most points per game (28.9) in the regular season, leading to their demise, and that was with Trey Hendrickson, one of the most prolific pass rushers in the sport, playing seven games.

You can argue that the Bengals' defense is more well-rounded, but it's not as if the new additions don't have clear question marks. Lawrence is a star, but he's also coming off his worst season. Mafe has been productive in his career, but he had just two sacks in 2025. Allen is a 31-year-old who is past his prime, and even as good as Howell can be, he slid to the Bengals in the second round of the draft for a reason (his arms are very short).

Might these moves work out? Sure. You can see the path for all of the new additions playing huge roles for Cincinnati. There's also a world where Lawrence isn't the same player, Mafe has another down year, Allen's age shows, and Howell needs more time to develop. The defense is no sure thing.

The Bengals' high-powered offense, led by Burrow, will always keep them relevant, but there's a wide gap from relevance to the Super Bowl. Even if the Bengals' defense is better (and that's no sure thing), the jump from the 30th-ranked defense in points allowed to a defense that's good enough to win a Super Bowl is substantial. I love Burrow's optimism and would never want or expect him to talk his defense down, but even assuming the defense is improved, it's hard to envision it being good enough to get the Bengals to the Big Game.

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