Derrick Henry rumbled for over 200 yards and four TDs to lead the Baltimore Ravens to a convincing 41-24 win over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in late December. It was exactly the sort of result Ravens fans were dreaming of at the start of this season ... except all it did was improve the team's record to 8-8, and delayed its inevitable elimination from the NFL playoff picture.
It's been that kind of year in Baltimore, as another slow defensive start and injuries to Lamar Jackson have left the team once again frustratingly short of its Super Bowl aspirations. Saturday night's win was at least cathartic, a reminder of this roster's potential when it's clicking on all cylinders. But while it was a fun few hours, it also might cost Baltimore dearly come this offseason.
Ravens almost certainly won't be moving on from John Harbaugh
I understand that Ravens fans have suffered through diminishing returns in recent years, and that the failure to realize this roster's potential in the Lamar Jackson era has been excruciating at times. But there are roughly 25 (at least) other teams who would leap at the chance to have Harbaugh as their head coach. He makes consistently strong coordinator hires, he makes consistently strong game management decisions, he's made five divisional round appearances (with six seasons of double-digit wins) in the past eight years and clearly his team is still playing hard for him.
If Jackson is explicit that it's either he or Harbaugh, then that's a different conversation with a potentially different outcome. Until that happens, however, this feels like a non-starter, if for no other reason than the fact that Baltimore would be hoping Harbaugh's replacement would be ... as successful as the head coach they currently have. At the very least, he's earned enough benefit of the doubt to survive a year in which his team (and his two-time MVP quarterback) have struggled to stay healthy.
Baltimore's Week 17 win could have dramatic draft consequences
That said, while Baltimore's win in Green Bay on Saturday night turned the heat down some on Harbaugh and eased concerns about this team's potential moving forward, it could be devastating as the Ravens approach a critical offseason. Now at 8-8, Baltimore has fallen to the bottom of the first half of the first round, dropping multiple spots to pick No. 16. And that might not be the end of their slide.
Barring a spectacular choke job, the Pittsburgh Steelers should take care of business against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon, clinching the AFC North and officially eliminating Baltimore from playoff contention. Pittsburgh would then almost certainly rest key starters (like their 40-something QB, Aaron Rodgers) for the regular-season finale against the Ravens. If Baltimore wins that game, they'll end the season at 9-8, and could potentially wind up picking as low as No. 18.
That would be a meaningful setback. Because while much of the hope for a 2026 bounce-back hinges on Jackson getting and staying healthy (and repairing his relationship with Harbaugh), it also can't be ignored that the offensive infrastructure around the QB simply isn't good enough right now. The Ravens are a draft-and-develop team that simply hasn't drafted well enough at key spots, most notably edge rusher, the interior of the offensive line and wide receiver. They have the opportunity to fix at least one of those holes in next spring's draft, provided they pick high enough to get the guy they want.
Who the Ravens could lose out on with worse draft positioning
There isn't a single piece of the Ravens passing game that truly strikes fear into a defense (all due respect to Zay Flowers, a good player but one whose limited catch radius and critical high-leverage mistakes put a ceiling on his potential). They've also gotten limited return on investment from draft picks at both guard spots, right tackle and edge rusher.
Someone like Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate would be an ideal fit as a true ball-winner on the outside, but he probably won't be available if Baltimore does wind up picking later than No. 15 in the first round. Ditto a tackle like Miami's Francis Mauigoa, or an edge like Texas Tech's David Bailey. This isn't the deepest of draft classes, and the Ravens' chances of landing an impact talent may go out the window with another meaningless win in Week 18.