Kirk Cousins signs with Raiders: Ripple effects for Aaron Rodgers, Steelers and NFL Draft

Kirk Cousins has signed a five-year, $172 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders. If that sounds odd, or like a day-late April Fool's joke, fear not. It's basically a one-year, $20 million contract with a club option for two years and $80 million, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. The rest is just for show, essentially — and to appease the mighty salary cap gods. Here's the full breakdown:

How exactly Cousins received this contract is confounding, even if it's a one-year deal. Was his value really $20 million after two lost seasons in Atlanta? He's 37 years old, still not far removed from major knee surgery, and he hasn't looked like himself since 2023, back before his knee exploded. Cousins has now earned more in his career than Tom Brady, so if anyone deserves credit here, it's his agent.

Now, let's dive into the implications of this move in Vegas and elsewhere:

Does Kirk Cousins change the Raiders' plans with No. 1 pick?

Almost certainly not. While Cousins could compete for the starting job in camp, the Raiders will undoubtedly select Indiana quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall. While there has been debate recently around Mendoza's qualifications as the best prospect in the draft, those debates are mostly the product of boredom or bias. He's clearly QB1 and the only right pick for a team in Las Vegas' position.

Whether or not he starts Week 1 remains to be seen. Cousins spent a good chunk of the last couple years backing up Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta, ironically on an ever higher salary. But $20 million is a lot of money for a backup. There's so much pressure and anxiety around getting quarterbacks on the field as soon as possible nowadays. Historically, however, even the greatest quarterbacks need a year or two to find their footing. Tom Brady started his career as QB2, and now he's in charge of the Raiders' day-to-day operations as a minority owner.

Mendoza feels smart enough and talented enough to produce out of the gate, but he probably benefits from taking a slow-burn approach and learning from a veteran with Cousins' pedigree. It helps that Cousins knows Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak, his former QBs coach in Minnesota. It also sounds like Kubiak is very much planning for Mendoza to take a backseat early on:

This means Mendoza will have both Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady to learn from, with built-in, pre-planned patience and a tremendous offensive head coach to grow under. That is one hell of a situation to step into as a rookie quarterback, especially one with Mendoza's well-documented work ethic and mental makeup.

Steelers and Aaron Rodgers have the blueprint

This is an easy blueprint for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers to follow. If Cousins is worth $20 million next season, so is Rodgers. In reality, neither of them probably "deserve" that money, but Rodgers did step up to the plate and deliver a postseason berth in Pittsburgh in his age-42 season. That is an impressive feat in its own right, and it was impressive enough for the Steelers to plainly want him back.

New head coach Mike McCarthy happens to be Rodgers' old head coach, with the pair having spent many successful years together in Green Bay. One has to believe the connection is purposeful, even if hiring an older head coach who hasn't won anything in years, all to appease a mid-40s quarterback who is contemplating retirement, is objectively the worst strategy imaginable.

Rodgers signed a one-year, $13.7 million contract with Pittsburgh last offseason. Has he earned a raise? Perhaps. The Steelers probably won't tack on a club option and the extra void years that Cousins received, but the latter's was a market-setting contract. Now we know the price for has-been former Pro Bowlers with glitzy pedigree and a lot of respect around the league. Especially if another team wants to pry Rodgers away from Pittsburgh — all the Denver buzz is, um, fascinating — that could drive the price up into the $20 million range, easy.

Cousins signing could impact NFL Draft well beyond Las Vegas

Cousins was a popular hypothetical target for many quarterback-needy teams around the league. Nobody ever really pointed to Vegas because of the Fernando Mendoza of it all, even if now, in hindsight, in makes all the sense in the world. Cousins should serve functionally as the Raiders' bridge quarterback, hopefully bringing Mendoza up to speed for a promotion either midseason or in 2027.

But what about those QB-needy teams leftover? The Steelers, if Aaron Rodgers doesn't re-sign. The Broncos, if Bo Nix can't get healthy in time. The Cardinals. The Jets. The Browns. Maybe even the Panthers. All of these teams could, on the surface, need a quarterback. Cousins was probably the best unsigned free agent left, and he just went to a team with its QB pipeline already set. That could have major implications on the upcoming draft.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is widely regarded as the second-best QB on the board behind Mendoza. His lack of experience is alarming when placed in the context of past NFL Draft busts, but teams clearly believe in the talent and the upside. So now, might his stock soar with the QB market drying up? The Jets pick as high as No. 2 and plan to meet with Simpson. Arizona picks third. Cleveland picks sixth. If Simpson does not pull off such a miraculous ascent, the Steelers at No. 21 would make a lot of sense on paper.

Other QBs in the second- or third-round range, such as LSU's Garrett Nussmeier or Miami's Carson Beck, could also end up filling roster spots where Cousins was once considered a fit. Time will tell if the impact spirals out in a big way, but Las Vegas is about to win the quarterback sweepstakes on multiple fronts this offseason, which is a rarity.

More NFL news and analysis: