Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- June 1 brings easier salary cap math for the Patriots pursuing star receiver A.J. Brown this offseason.
- Both sides have operated with the expectation of a deal despite one major hurdle remaining.
- The final sticking point centers on how much future draft capital will change hands to complete the transaction.
June has arrived and the A.J. Brown trade watch is officially back on. The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles have been circling June 1 as a potential target to resume trade talks for the star receiver since the salary cap implications of a deal are much easier to swallow now for the Eagles.
Moving Brown prior to today would have left the Eagles with over $43 million in dead cap money (according to Over The Cap), which would have made it tough for Howie Roseman to build his roster for this season. Any trades executed after today will allow the Eagles to split the remaining dead money from Browns' deal over two seasons, so it will cost Philadelphia just over $16 million in dead cap this season to send him out now.
Both teams have progressed through their offseasons as if a Brown trade is an eventuality. The Patriots bypassed receivers in the draft to keep a spot open for Brown while the Eagles traded ahead of Pittsburgh to take Makai Lemon as Brown's potential replacement.
While the end result appears fairly obvious, it seems as if there is still a bit of negotiating to do before a trade is finalized. The holdup, which shouldn't shock anyone, appears to be draft compensation.
Why draft pick compensation could hold up an A.J. Brown trade
The big question that New England and Philadelphia have to solve at this point is how much draft capital the Patriots will need to part with to land Brown. A first round pick seems to be a fair valuation, but when or how it materializes is still an open question.
It seems fairly certain that the Patriots would be unwilling to part with their first round pick in next year's draft, which has a loaded class of prospects that can fill multiple need areas. A 2028 first rounder is a more likely asset to move, but Philadelphia would likely prefer a straight pick while New England would want some conditions attached to it.
Conditional picks are often set at a lower price point with easily obtainable escalators to have them end up at the desired result. For example, the Patriots could trade a conditional 2028 second round draft pick to the Eagles with the condition that it becomes a first rounder if Brown plays a certain percentage of snaps or achieves something like 800 receiving yards.
The idea behind the conditions is to protect the acquiring team in the event of an unfortunate result like an injury. A good recent example came with the New York Jets' trade for Aaron Rodgers in 2023, which saw them swap first round picks in that draft but send a conditional second round pick for the 2024 draft based on Rodgers' playing time.
The idea was that if Rodgers took 65 percent of the Jets' snaps in 2023 that second round pick would escalate to a first rounder. The only way it made sense for the pick not to convey as a first was in the event of an injury, which happened when Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon four snaps into the season.
Philadelphia obviously wants the greatest possible return for Brown, so if New England insists on making its 2028 pick conditional the Eagles may want an additional mid-round pick in 2027 to ensure fair value for a game-changing receiver.
The key to note here is that these two teams need each other to make a deal happen. There is no obvious landing spot for Brown outside New England and Philadelphia has seemingly moved on, so it is just a matter of time until the teams agree to terms on a trade.
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