Week 11 of the NFL schedule is here, so buckle up boys and girls, because it's a doozy. This is one of the most interesting slates of games we've had this year, with matchups that will go a long way toward deciding divisions and playoff seeding.
Only the Colts and Saints have a bye this week. That will give the Manning family a bit less to do, but for the rest of us football fans, we'll have a full plate. The Jets and Patriots kicked things off last night, and we've got an action-packed Sunday that begins with a morning game between the Commanders and Dolphins, live from Bernebéu, the famous home of soccer's Real Madrid, and will end with a clash between a pair of NFC favorites when the Lions visit the Eagles. The Cowboys and Raiders will finish the week with a Monday Night Football matchup that at the very least should be an entertaining affair.
This is a week not only for Super Bowl contenders to prove it against similarly skilled teams, but for those on the fringes of the postseason conversation to make a statement that they'll be heard from down the stretch. We'll begin our bold predictions with two of those teams — one of which has lost four straight and found excruciating ways to come up short the last two weeks, while the other has won six of seven while repeatedly pulling a rabbit out of a hat in crunch time.
The Falcons and Bears avenge earlier losses to division foes
The Falcons and Bears are two teams heading in different directions, but they have similar goals this week. They're both out for revenge for embarrassing losses planted on them by divisional opponents.
The Falcons got annihilated by the Panthers 30-0 in Week 3, giving Carolina its first win of the season and springboarding Dave Canales' club into surprise contention. Given that the Panthers have since leapfrogged the Falcons in the NFC South standings, this was already going to be a tough game, but it's even more daunting now that Rico Dowdle has emerged as a true workhorse back. The Falcons give up more yards on the ground than all but three other teams, so they'll have their hands full in stopping Dowdle.
The book on the Panthers early in the year was that they were good at home but couldn't win on the road. That's no longer the case, as they beat the Jets and the Packers the last two times they've left Charlotte. They're not an easy team to figure out, because they lost at home to the lowly Saints just last week.
The Panthers have scored only 45 points in their last four games, which means the Falcons should have two objectives: slow Dowdle down and don't turn the ball over to give away easy points. Michael Penix hasn't looked great, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have. This will be a "three yards and a cloud of dust" kind of game, even indoors, and at the end of the day, I trust Bijan and Allgeier to be the 1-2 punch the Falcons need to get back in the win column. Neither team might score 20 points, but give me the Falcons to keep their season alive.
The Bears absorbed a different kind of embarrassment at the hands of the Vikings in Week 1. This was the pilot episode of the Ben Johnson era, and though it started off well enough with the Bears taking an early lead, the second half was a disasterpiece reminiscent of the Matt Eberflus era. JJ McCarthy came alive in the fourth quarter in his first NFL start, and he even won Offensive Player of the Week for his role in securing the comeback win.
Things are much different now. The Bears have learned how to win by any means necessary, with Caleb Williams transforming into one of the league's most elusive and clutch quarterbacks. McCarthy has missed more than half the season with an ankle sprain, but he did enough to knock off the Lions in his first game back before losing to the Ravens last week.
The Bears' defense has been extremely banged up, but they've excelled at forcing turnovers. McCarthy has thrown at least one pick in each of his four starts, so expect that to continue. The matchup to really watch though is between Caleb and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Caleb has shown all the makings of being the league's next elite quarterback, but Flores and his exotic gameplans are tailor-made to frustrate young QBs.
The Bears have run the ball well to take some pressure off Caleb, and that's an area where Minnesota's defense is vulnerable. The Vikings are too well-coached to just get blown out in this one, and that hasn't been the Bears' M.O. anyway, but it feels like Chicago is just the better team right now. This game will be competitive the whole way, but McCarthy's tendency to turn it over combined with Caleb's ability to turn losses into gains should give the Bears the win.
Joe Flacco kills the Steelers again
Mike Tomlin was not happy when the Browns traded Joe Flacco to the Bengals, and he's probably in an even worse mood for this second meeting of the season, since the Ravens have pulled to within a game of the Steelers' division lead.
Flacco has thrown for over 1,000 yards in three games since coming to Cincinnati, and he got it rolling by lighting Pittsburgh up for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a Thursday night upset. Unlike the Falcons and Bears, whom I expect to get revenge, I think Flacco throws it all over the yard again to serve their second helping of humble pie, with a side of Skyline chili.
Cincinnati's offense has been cooking with gas ever since Flacco arrived, and with the knowledge that Joe Burrow will soon be back from the injured list, the Bengals will be desperate to get a win and stay in the race. They're also coming off of two tough-luck losses in which they scored a combined 80 points (something that's never been done before), and most importantly, a bye.
That week off should give the defense time to at least come up with some plan of attack to stop a Steelers offense that looked old and slow last week against the Chargers. Conversely, Pittsburgh's pass defense has been putrid, actually last in the league, so how are they going to stop Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins?
This will be another shootout, and it'll end with Tomlin mad all over again.
Matthew Stafford becomes the MVP favorite as he leads the Rams over the Seahawks
There are some great games on Sunday, but no matchup features a better combined record than the 7-2 Seahawks traveling south to take on the 7-2 Rams. This game might not just determine the NFC West and the 1-seed in the conference, it could be an NFC Championship Game preview.
Both teams have elite pass-rushes. Both have reliable running games, stud receivers and quarterbacks playing at an extremely high level. When push comes to shove, though, I'm taking Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay's experience over Sam Darnold and Mike Macdonald.
Stafford has been on fire of late, throwing an obscene 13 touchdowns and zero touchdowns in his last three games. Those preseason health concerns seem like they happened eons ago, and with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams lining up on either side of the field, there's not much a secondary, even one as good as Seattle's, can do.
Darnold has been fantastic in his own right, and the Seahawks have been destroying everyone in their path. If this game was in the Pacific Northwest, I'd give them an edge, but without that home field advantage, I trust Stafford to make the right reads with a ferocious front four bearing down on him more than I trust Darnold after he wilted in the Vikings' two biggest games last season.
The Rams have had kicker issues lately, with Joshua Karty losing his job before last week's game. Paradoxically, I think that will help them going into this one, as it will free McVay to open up and be more aggressive with the knowledge that he's usually in four-down territory. It's probably going to take a score in the high 20s at least to win this game, and if I were a betting man, I'd rather rely on Stafford to get me there and further strengthen his growing MVP candidacy.
The Chiefs and Lions pull off huge road wins
When elite teams face off, it's usually the more desperate one that wins. That's why I like the Chiefs and Lions to go into hostile environments and make a statement this week.
The Chiefs seem to have their mojo back this year, yet they're only 5-4. They're not used to looking up at anyone in the standings, but both the Broncos and Chargers are ahead of them now. Denver is 8-2, which means they can pretty much bury the Chiefs' regular season hopes with a win here. They're also a perfect 6-0 at home, while the Chiefs are only 1-3 away from Arrowhead. It says a lot then that the Chiefs are favored in this game.
In a way, this year's Broncos look a lot like last year's Chiefs. They rely on their defense, then find ways to improbably pull games out in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs aren't a team you can mess around with for three quarters though, and they're much more desperate since their playoff standing is far less assured. Reigning Defense Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II will miss his third straight game with a pec strain, and though neither the Texans nor the Raiders had the offenses to make Denver pay, Kansas City does, especially since they've had their bye week to cook up something extra special. Andy Reid is 22-4 in his career after a bye. Don't overthink it.
The Lions were humbled by the Chiefs in Week 6, but they've mostly righted the ship by winning two of three since. Unlike the Eagles, who have the NFC East all but wrapped up, Detroit is in a dogfight in the North. They're tied with the surprising Bears and only half a game up on the Packers. Even the Vikings are just two games back but own a head-to-head win after winning at Ford Field two weeks ago.
Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties last week, and his team responded by scoring 44 points against the Commanders. That's just what the Dan Quinn's team does now though, as they're allowing 39 points per game in their last four. The Eagles' defense won't be nearly as generous, and they seem to be in top form after holding the Packers to just seven points at Lambeau Field this past Monday night.
That primetime pitcher's duel gives Philly one less day of rest, and that's meaningful against the Lions' multifaceted attack. Detroit has the better run defense and the much less dysfunctonal passing attack, so even though they're on the road, I think they'll find a way to win and stay atop the division.