The NFC North remains one of the most fascinating divisions in the NFL this year. It helps that Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears have pulled a rabbit out of their hat once or twice. Who doesn't love a magic trick? On Saturday, it was an onside kick that might have changed the outlook of the division for good. Chicago flipped a 10-point deficit going into the final two minutes into a 22-16 overtime victory, capped by the throw and catch of the season.
The Bears win over the Packers puts them firmly in the driver's seat atop the NFC North, but the playoff scenarios for all three teams still alive in the postseason hunt are still plentiful.
NFC North Standings
NFC North Standings | Record |
|---|---|
1. Bears | 11-4 |
2. Packers | 9-5-1 |
3. Lions | 8-6 |
4. Vikings--e | 6-8 |
The Bears and Packers have obviously played but the Lions take on the Steelers on Sunday with the chance to creep closer to the Packers at 9-6. Detroit is a touchdown favorite in that game.
Remaining schedules
- Bears: at 49ers, vs. Lions
- Packers: vs. Ravens, at Vikings
- Lions: vs. Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears
Probability to make the playoffs and win the NFC North
Team | Playoff Chance | Division Chance |
|---|---|---|
1. Bears | 97% | 83% |
2. Packers | 82% | 10% |
3. Lions | 22% | 7% |
After Saturday night's win, the Bears are inches away from locking in a place in the postseason — their first since 2020. They're also the runaway favorites to win the division for the first time since 2018. Hell, they're one victory from tying their best record since 2006 with 12 wins. Everything is coming up Chicago.
The Packers still have a strong chance of making the playoffs. They just need to avoid cracking the door open for the Lions. But winning the division is out of their hands. It will take a collapse from Chicago.
The Lions are still more likely to miss the postseason than make it. They're not dead yet though. They even have the slightest chance of winning the division, nearly as much as the Packers anyway.
Bears playoff scenarios
Chicago clinches if...
- Lions lose to Steelers in Week 16
- Bears beat Lions in Week 18
- Packers lose in Week 17 or 18
At this point, the Bears' eyes are on the division crown and No. 1 seed more than anything. For the latter, it's simple: Make it to 12 wins and the division is there's. For the former, it'll take two more wins and a Seahawks loss.
In order to miss the playoffs, Chicago would have to watch everything go wrong. Not only would the Bears would have to lose their last two games against the 49ers and Lions, but both the Packers and Lions would have to win out (technically, GB could tie one of their final two games).
Losing to the 49ers and Lions is within the realm of possibility. San Francisco has to win one game to clinch the playoffs and they're not only alive for the division title but the No. 1 overall seed. They'll be motivated. Detroit has to win out, so there's a chance they will be deeply motivated or utterly crushed by the time Week 18 comes around.
And the Packers and Lions both winning out is on the table, though Chicago controls whether that happens or not.
Packers playoff scenarios
Green Bay clinches if...
- Packers win in Week 17 AND 18
- Packers win in Week 17 OR 18 + Lions lose in Week 16, 17 OR 18
- Lions lose in two of Week 16, 17 or 18
The Packers have a very simple way to get into the playoffs: Just win, baby. Winning out guarantees Green Bay a spot without having to worry about any other scenarios. Of course, it's nice when you get a little help. One Packers win and one Lions loss would put them through. And two Detroit losses would also do the trick.
Winning the division though, that would require Green Bay winning out and the Bears losing out. Either way, the Packers are a threat to compete for the Super Bowl so long as they get in by any means necessary.
Lions playoff scenarios
Detroit clinches if...
- Lions win in Week 16, 17 AND 18 + Bears lose in Week 17
- Lions win in Week 16, 17 AND 18 + 49ers lose in Week 16, 17 and 18
- Lions win in two of Week 16, 17 and 18 + Packers lose in Week 17 OR 18
There is a chance Lions fans, but it mostly hinges on winning out or, at worst, winning two-of-three. The latter outcome requires the Packers to lose one of their last two. But Detroit's best chance is leaving nothing to chance and finishing at 11-6
As wild as it may seem, they can even win the division by winning out and having the Bears lose to the 49ers and the Packers lose one of their last two.