The NFL regular season has officially hit the stretch run, and after 15 weeks ... we've learned shockingly little about who might be left standing in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Already eliminated from playoff contention. The defending champion Eagles? They might implode from within before we get to January. This is as wide open a playoff picture as we've seen in the league in recent years, and it feels like just about anybody (well, fine, maybe not the Titans) is capable of making a run at the Lombardi Trophy.
Is it possible to sort through all that chaos and come up with a pecking order? Maybe not, but we're sure going to try. With just three weeks remaining before the postseason begins, we've ranked every current playoff team, 1-14, by the odds that they can reach the Super Bowl.
1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3, first NFC West)
I'm not sure there's a more balanced team in the NFL right now than the Rams, who are not only 11-3 but also rank at or near the top of the league in most advanced metrics — including DVOA, which has L.A. narrowly second behind the Seahawks. (And even that's misleading, given that Seattle's recent struggles have yet to be fully reflected.)
The injury to Davante Adams is a concern, considering how much multiplicity he afforded Sean McVay. But that multiplicity should also allow them to weather the storm: The Rams have slowly become a 13 personnel (one receiver, three tight ends) team of late anyway, with a devastating run game and arguably the best wideout in football in Puka Nacua. They can win in a variety of ways, they have an MVP candidate in Matthew Stafford at the helm and there are fewer glaring weaknesses here than anywhere else in the league.
2. Buffalo Bills (10-4, 2nd AFC East)
Lord help me, but in an AFC playoff picture without Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, I have a hard time ignoring the edge that Josh Allen brings the Bills come January. Of course, Buffalo has looked plenty vulnerable at times this season, and I have my concerns about Sean McDermott as both a game manager and a defensive coordinator. But when the rubber meets the road, do you really trust Drake Maye, Bo Nix or Trevor Lawrence to hold Allen at bay? If they can't get over the hump this season, I'm not sure it'll ever happen for this team, and Allen is such an offensive force that I simply trust him more than anyone else.
3. Denver Broncos (12-2, 1st AFC West)
Even as arguably our nation's foremost Bo Nix hater (with all due respect to FanSided colleague Cody Williams), I'm starting to buy what the Broncos are selling. For one thing, Nix is playing better than he ever has before. For another, this defense is ferocious, a unique blend of big-play prevention and havoc-wreaking power.
Denver's defensive front comes at you in waves, and they're no longer quite so reliant on Patrick Surtain II to lock things up in man coverage. That unit figures to keep them in every playoff game they take part in, and when you add to that a significant home-field advantage at altitude — plus Sean Payton's documented schematic greatness — I have more faith in the Broncos than any other AFC team without a future Hall of Famer at quarterback.
4. Houston Texans (9-5, 2nd AFC South)
I did think long and hard about bumping Houston up to the No. 3 spot, though. I'm a huge believer in this defense, which has always been a bad time under Demeco Ryans but has now become something downright terrifying. Nick Caley is doing just enough to keep CJ Stroud on schedule and out of harm's way, even against good defenses, and you simply don't need to score all that much when you've got Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and Co. at your back.
Unfortunately, I just have a few too many questions that remain unanswered about this offense's ultimate ceiling. They still can't really run the ball, and I'm still waiting for someone to step up opposite Nico Collins. Combine that with likely having to go on the road for much of the AFC playoffs, and it's enough to leave them at No. 4.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 1st NFC East)
Look, I get it. The vibes are rancid in Philly right now, and this offense leaves a lot to be desired. I also refuse to read much into any result of a game against the Las Vegas Raiders, who are barely a functional football team.
And yet. I still believe in Vic Fangio and this defense, and I still believe in the Eagles' ability to manufacture first downs on the ground. This has as much to do with an easy path to a top-three seed (and the tumult currently enveloping much of the rest of the NFC), but I have a sneaking suspicion that will look up on Divisional weekend and realize that this team is still a pain to deal with.
6. Seattle Seahawks (11-3, 2nd NFC West)
I want to believe. Mike Macdonald's defense is tremendously fun to watch, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a one-man show and it's great to see the 12th Man given a chance to really roar again. Unfortunately ... well, you've watched Sam Darnold before, right? He's done a remarkable job reviving his career, and yet it's hard to avoid feeling like we're watching the same old script play out again as his performs tails off with the calendar turning to December. Can you honestly tell me you trust Darnold to win not just one but multiple playoff games?
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, 1st AFC South)
It feels weird to put faith into both Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars as a franchise, but here we are. Lawrence is playing like the generational quarterback we were promised coming out of Clemson, delivering the ball into tight intermediate windows with timing and accuracy. We've seen flashes before that have been all too short lived, I know, but if he can keep this up, I don't see why this Jacksonville team can't make a Super Bowl. Liam Coen has the goods as an offensive play-caller, and the defense does just enough to muck up games and get after the quarterback despite not boasting a ton of star power. They're just a good, solid team, and in this wide-open bracket, that might be enough.
8. New England Patriots (11-3, 1st AFC East)
I'm sorry, Patriots fans, please stop yelling at me. Drake Maye is the truth, TreVeyon Henderson is a walking big play and Mike Vrabel is a heck of a coach; the long-term arrow is pointing straight up for this team. Unfortunately, I feel like they're a year ahead of schedule in 2025.
Their schedule has been such a breeze that, despite their gaudy 11-3 record, they're still just 17th in DVOA. It generally takes a playoff run or two for a young team to learn how to win games in January, and I have a hard time considering this good but flawed group a true Super Bowl contender right now.
9. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 2nd NFC North)
Green Bay likely would've been a lot higher on this list had Micah Parsons not gone down with a season-ending ACL tear over the weekend. As it is, I just don't trust this defense enough to make a deep playoff run, especially not when the typically devastating run game we're used to seeing from Matt LaFleur has yet to fully materialize. The Packers are going to be asking a whole lot of Jordan Love over the next month or so; will he finally realize his ceiling, or will he continue to make one or three choices a game that leave everyone scratching their heads?
10. San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 3rd NFC West)
San Francisco deserves a ton of credit for getting to 10-4 despite a downright comical run of injuries, but both their point differential (+51, fifth in the NFC) and their DVOA (12th in the NFL) point to a team that's good rather than great. It just feels like a matter of time before they run out of steam: Sure, Kyle Shanahan will squeeze every drop out of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Co., but eventually the close-game magic and lack of playmaking is going to catch up to them. Not to mention how ravaged the front seven is defensively.
11. Chicago Bears (10-4, 1st NFC North)
We talked in the Patriots section about teams that were maybe a year ahead of schedule, and that's also how I feel about Chicago. The Bears have ridden this high-wire act to 10 wins and first place in the division, but I still can't fully trust this defense — and, crucially, I still can't fully trust Caleb Williams not to miss throws at the worst possible time. All the underlying indicators point to Chicago being closer to average than elite, and while everyone should be thrilled about year one under Ben Johnson, I'm not sure how sustainable this particular formula really is.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, 1st AFC North)
Well, Steelers fans, your team is back atop the AFC North, ticketed for another playoff berth under Mike Tomlin. The bad news is that, from every indication, this Pittsburgh team is pretty much the same as all the other high-floor, low-ceiling versions we've seen in recent years. Sure, Aaron Rodgers can protect the ball, and the defense has its moments when the edge rushers are cooking. But eventually Rodgers is going to be asked to try and push the ball down the field, and I'm not sure how that'll go. We've seen this movie before and we know how it ends.
13. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, 2nd AFC West)
Can someone please undo whatever curse has apparently befallen Justin Herbert? Just when it seemed like this might finally be the year for he and the Chargers to break through, his offensive line has completely fallen apart as injuries have exposed a lack of depth. Jim Harbaugh, Jesse Minter and Co. deserve credit for weathering that storm, but sneaking past the Eagles (thanks to a bundle of turnovers) and Chiefs (without Patrick Mahomes) doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Unless they can find a way to keep Herbert upright, I doubt they can win multiple games in January.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 1st NFC South)
At a certain point, you are what your record says you are. It feels like Tampa has too much talent to be mired in mediocrity like this, but 14 games tells us that's exactly what they deserve. Baker Mayfield has regressed badly since his hot start, spraying the ball far too often, while Todd Bowles' defense has gotten exposed in recent weeks. Even if the Bucs do manage to fend off the Panthers and hold on to the South, does anyone seriously think a Super Bowl run is in the cards?