This year's NFC North race has been a doozy, but it hasn't gone down the way anybody expected. Whereas last year the Lions beat the Vikings in the final week of the season to break a 14-2 tie in the standings, this time around it's the Bears and Packers who will be fighting it out to see who wins the division and the likely No. 2 seed in the postseason.
Most everyone was high on the Ben Johnson hiring for the Bears, but I'm not sure anyone could have expected him to work his magic so soon on a team that had a double-digit losing streak just last year. The Bears started the season 0-2 but have improved each and every week, learning how to win along the way.
How the Bears and Packers have proven themselves in the playoff race
People around the league have been reticent to label the Bears as real contenders due to the many close games they've pulled out, but after physically dominating the Eagles on Black Friday, nearly coming back to steal a win over the Packers at Lambeau Field and dismantling the Browns 31-3 on Sunday, it's clear that this is a team that needs to be taken seriously.
The Packers retook the division lead with that win over the Bears, but their time at the top was short-lived. Sunday's loss to the Broncos, coupled with the Bears' win, flipped the standings yet again, and with the Lions also losing, it's a near-certainty that the division is now a two-horse race.
There are only three weeks left in the regular season, but much still to be decided. Better yet, both teams still control their own destiny, and the 1-seed is still in play depending on what the Rams and Seahawks do the rest of the way. Here's how the NFC North will be won.
Bears scenarios to win the NFC North
By virtue of the Packers' tie with the Cowboys back in Week 3, this division won't come down to a tiebreaker, unless of course another tie happens. That's why the Bears' current half-game edge over Green Bay is so important. If they can just have the same record as the Packers in these final three games, they'll take the division.
That means that beating the Packers on Saturday won't clinch it, but it will put the Bears 1.5 games ahead with two to play and drop their magic number to 1. A win over either the 49ers or the Lions in the final two games would be all it takes to make it official. Even if the Bears were to lose both of those games, beating the Packers would be enough to win the division if Green Bay loses one to either the Ravens or Vikings to end the year and the Lions lose to either the Steelers or Vikings.
If the Bears lose on Sunday, they're far from out of it. They would need a better record than the Packers in the final two games, and to make sure that the Lions don't catch them in the final week, because Dan Campbell's group would have the tiebreaker over the Bears by virtue of winning twice in that scenario. Beating the Niners and Lions would get them the division if the Packers lose one more game, regardless of whether or not Green Bay sweeps the season series on Saturday.
To put it simply, the Bears will win the division if they win two of their final three games, with the only exception being if their one loss is to the Packers and the Packers run the table.
Packers scenarios to win the NFC North
As you can probably gather, the Packers really need to beat the Bears to give themselves a realistic chance to win the division. A loss would drop them 1.5 games back with two to play, meaning they would need two wins and two Bears losses to take it back.
If the Packers win on Saturday, they'll be looking good, since they'll be favored at home over the Ravens (though the Ravens will be desperate for a win as they try to keep their own playoff hopes alive), and they'll almost certainly be favored on the road against the Vikings in Week 18. It'll also be a tough road for the Bears to hoe as they travel to San Francisco and then host a Lions team that beat them by 31 in Week 2.
There are some things working against the Packers in this upcoming game, though. The most obvious is that Micah Parsons will be out for the rest of the season and possibly longer as he recovers from the torn ACL he suffered against the Broncos. Christian Watson's status is also in doubt after he left the game on a scary play with what the team called a chest injury. Test results revealed no serious damage though, so there's a chance he could be able to suit up. Considering the difference he made in catching four passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears in Week 14, that would greatly bolster his team's chances.
Lions scenarios to win the NFC North
Since they're not technically eliminated yet, let's throw the Lions in the mix, as well. Now a disappointing 8-6 after they couldn't keep up with the Rams on Sunday, Detroit is on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, and they'll need everything to go almost perfectly to win the division.
Winning out is mandatory, which means beating the Steelers at home and then getting road wins over the Vikings and Bears. That would still only result in an 11-6 record, so the Bears would have to lose one more game and the Packers would have to lose two. The most likely of these admittedly unlikely scenarios is that the Bears beat the Packers but lose to the Niners, while the Packers follow up a Bears loss with one to the Ravens.
If the Packers beat the Bears, it would mean the only way the Lions could win the division is if Green Bay loses its last two, and that's probably not going to happen. Still, the Lions should be rooting for the Pack this week, since it could get them to within a game of the Bears with a chance to play their way into the playoff field in a Week 18 game that would be a lock for a primetime flex.
Postseason outlook for the NFC North
As it stands right now, the Bears would be the 2-seed and the Packers would come to Soldier Field in the Wild Card Round as the 7-seed. The Lions are 1.5 games out and in real trouble. They'll need to catch either the Bears or Packers, which, as outlined above, is not going to be easy. Technically they can still jump the 49ers, but that would take winning out and San Fran losing out since the Niners have the tiebreaker by virtue of being 8-2 in conference games, while the Lions are only 5-5.
Dating back to the 2023-24 season, the Lions have won 15 straight games after a loss. That ties an NFL record, but the problem is that while they always bounce back from defeat, they just can't seem to string together wins anymore. The Lions haven't won two straight games since they beat the Browns and Bengals in Weeks 4 and 5, which is why they're in this mess to begin with. That will have to change if they have any chance of returning to the playoffs for the third year in a row.
This Saturday's Packers-Bears game is the biggest one this rivalry has seen since Aaron Rodgers won the division and eliminated the Bears with a 48-yard, fourth-down touchdown pass to Randall Cobb in the final minute of the regular season in 2013. Soldier Field will be rocking on Saturday. Will the Bears finally flip the script, or will they continue to be the little brother in the NFL's oldest rivalry?