The New England Patriots bore signs of regression before their bizarre offseason even began. To some of the same evaluators who warned me about the 2025 Commanders and 2024 Texans in real time, New England already looked like the NFL’s next team due for a fall back.
The seemingly never-ending drama about head coach Mike Vrabel’s relationship with NFL reporter Dianna Russini will do nothing to quelch those concerns among NFL decision-makers, and the story’s news cycle shows no signs of waning.
It is undoubtedly a distraction and resulted in Vrabel removing himself from Day 3 of the draft. But on a football scale, it’s relatively minor in terms of reasons why this Patriots team has the look of last year’s Commanders and the Texans from the year before that. Those teams came out of nowhere to over-perform expectations, they feasted on a lesser schedule (that was easier and offered fewer prime time pressure-cookers), and they did so with their quarterbacks far exceeding expectations and doing so without a quality offensive line in front of them.
That usually doesn’t go so well the second time around. The Patriots have the entire league focused on their offense in a way it never did before. The weight of expectations is heavy, and the similarities are there.
The Patriots' personnel looks shaky, and the schedule will be tough
“I feel you brother, 100 percent,” said one high-ranking AFC club official on the similarities between this year's Patriots and the Commanders and Texans in years prior. He does a lot of advance scouting work on other teams. “It’s funny you’re asking me this, man, I was just looking at them. Last in sacks allowed. [Quarterback Drake] Maye gets hit 121 times, that’s the most. The left tackle isn’t a left tackle. I’m with you.
“The schedule is much tougher with them winning a division now. Put the Vrabel stuff aside, I think they’re in trouble. Didn’t like their redzone offense. They rely heavily on the run. The defense, bad in the redzone. They don’t have enough impact defensive linemen. Look at their sacks, plus pressures, plus QB hits, I’ve got them 31st in the league.”
This evaluator was hardly alone. One NFL general manager put it pretty succinctly: “There is nowhere for them to go but down. Kansas City is going to be back. Baltimore should be better. Cincinnati is better. I don't think New England got better.”
We also have yet to mention the inevitable Super Bowl hangover for the losing team — you know the one that the mighty Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes fell prey to last year and the mighty 49ers the year before that. The ’25 Commanders and ’24 Texans did not have to contend with that dynamic.
One year ago, everything seemed to break New England’s way. The proverbial magic carpet ride. That doesn’t happen in consecutive years very often. And while the schedule isn’t out yet, we know the opponents and know what’s at home and what will be on the road.
“I’m looking at it right here,” the first exec said. “At Jacksonville, at Seattle. Denver at home. What if that game is in December? You have to watch Drake Maye in the cold. It looked like in the playoffs there last year [OC] Josh [McDaniels] was telling him to hang in there for six more minutes so they could go to the Super Bowl.
“He didn’t look good playing in the elements. At the Chargers and at the Chiefs, that won’t be easy. You know Buffalo is going to be ready for them after what happened last year.”
Yeah, that’s a lot.
Talent trumps all, and the Patriots spent a ton of money in 2025, and they went from a team that hasn’t been able to win at home for years to one that just couldn’t find ways to lose. When you look at the most important positions on any roster — quarterback, edge rusher, defensive tackle, left tackle, corner — they don’t check enough blue-chip boxes to come close to repeating what they did a year ago. They just don’t. And if they aren't in the AJ Brown sweepstakes anymore, that's not great, either.
The Patriots also faced a Texans team in the payoffs at home with CJ Stroud looking unable to function in the snow and cold, and they barely got past Denver despite the Broncos being without their starting quarterback. I expect merely reaching the postseason to be more of a chore in 2026. This long offseason is showing no signs of letting up, either.
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