Last year's Christmas slate was good on paper, but both games turned into blowouts, with the Chiefs beating the Steelers 29-10 and the Ravens taking down the Texans 31-2. It was definitely a letdown, especially that Houston/Baltimore game, which looked like it could be a good one until the Texans remembered that they are very, very bad against Lamar Jackson.
This year's slate is bad on paper, with multiple teams going into the week with backup quarterbacks. Maybe, though, we'll get some actual good football games?
Whether the games or good or not, though, there are major playoff implications set to play out on Christmas Day. Let's look at what's at stake on Thursday.
Cowboys vs. Commanders, 1:00 p.m.
NFC Impact: None, but there are some weird AFC implications that I'll outline below
We start with a game with no real playoff implications, as both the Cowboys and Commanders have been eliminated from postseason contention.
This wasn't what the NFL expected when they scheduled this one for Christmas. Washington made the postseason last year and was expected to be a contender in 2025, but the Jayden Daniels injury situation killed this Commanders' season, while the Cowboys' defensive issues doomed the team even as the offense surged. Luckily for Dallas, those defensive woes shouldn't matter this week, as Washington may be forced to start Josh Johnson at quarterback as Marcus Mariota deals with hand and quad injuries.
With all that said, there is a playoff implication here. There are 20 different scenarios where the Bills are knocked out of contention for the No. 1 seed. Five of those scenarios include the Cowboys — this is confusing, but suffice it to say that a Bills loss and a Cowboys win would make it very difficult for the Bills to get the No. 1 seed.
Lions vs. Vikings, 4:30 p.m.
NFC Impact: The final Wild Card spot between the Lions and Packers
What a Lions win does: Keeps Detroit alive
What a Lions loss does: Eliminates Detroit from playoff contention
The situation for the Lions is dire here, as a loss or a Packers win this week eliminates Detroit from playoff contention. Detroit's got to win out and the Packers have to lose out for the Lions to make the postseason.
That's good news for Green Bay, but Detroit is likely to get a boost this week as Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy could be out. McCarthy injured his hand against the Giants last week and sat out the second half, with rookie Max Brosmer replacing him.
Simply put, a Brosmer start on Thursday would put the Lions in position to accomplish their end of what's needed to get Detroit to the postseason. Brosmer completed 77.8 percent of his passes in the win over the Giants, but only finished with 52 yards, and in his lone start this season, he tossed four interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks.
Broncos vs Chiefs, 8:15 p.m.
AFC Impact: Broncos race for the No. 1 seed
What a Broncos win does: Moves Denver closer to clinching the No. 1 seed
What a Broncos loss does: Opens the door for New England
Right now, the Broncos have the edge over the Patriots in the race for the No. 1 seed, as the team holds the tiebreaker in common games. Denver could clinch the No. 1 seed this week, but it would need some help there. A Broncos win plus a Patriots loss, and either losses or ties from the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills, would hand Denver the No. 1 seed. Even beyond that, the Athletics' playoff predictor algorithm gives Denver a 59 percent chance to earn the No. 1 seed with a win, regardless of any other results.
But a loss to the Chiefs would be brutal for Denver. A Broncos loss, coupled with a Patriots win over the hapless Jet,s drops the chance of earning the No. 1 all the way down to 4%. The Broncos shouldn't lose to the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs, but weirder things have happened. Oladokun struggled to move the ball after Gardner Minshew went down with a knee injury, but maybe having a few days to practice with the first team can lead to better results this weekend?
Or, the Chiefs will just look bad, and the Minshew injury will hurt Kansas City on the field while improving the team's draft stock for next season. This is probably the more likely result.
How today’s results reshape the playoff picture immediately
Let's just quickly resummarize this. Here's your ;tldr for how Christmas Day impacts the NFL playoff race.
1) Dallas vs Washington: Doesn't immediately change anything, but a Cowboys win could play a role in
2) Lions vs Vikings: Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss
3) Broncos vs Chiefs: Denver needs to win this one if it wants to remain the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed
So, there you have it. Every game has some implications for the playoffs, though the first game of the day is only tangentially part of the playoff picture. It's the other two that have immediate impacts.