While most football fans are gearing up for holiday festivities, NFL head coaches have a weary eye looking towards January 5th, which is this year's edition of Black Monday. The end of the NFL regular season brings with it a slew of head coaching changes, and two teams have already gotten a job on the process with the Titans and Giants moving on from Brian Callahan and Brian Daboll earlier in the year.
Things could accelerate early as Week 16's NFL action could cement most of the playoff picture before Christmas, which may inspire owners looking to make a change to get the ball rolling earlier on their search process. Six teams changed coaches after the 2024 season and this year's coaching carousel could almost double that if all nine coaches listed below end up joining Callahan and Daboll on the unemployment line.
NFL Hot Seat Meter After Week 16
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
Miami has already made the first GM change of this cycle, firing Chris Grier at mid-season and opting to keep McDaniel due to owner Stephen Ross' belief that he could get the most out of the team. McDaniel and the Dolphins got hot after that, winning five of six to climb within a game of .500, but they were lackadaisical late in a loss to Pittsburgh that eliminated them from the playoffs, leading McDaniel to bench Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers.
The choice to switch quarterbacks is an interesting one for McDaniel since his best claim to keep the job is his ability to get the most out of Tagovailoa, who is basically anchored to Miami through next season with a prohibitive $99.2 million in dead cap hit to account for if he's cut. If Miami decides to bite the bullet and move on from Tagovailoa, which could happen with a release via post-June 1st designation that splits the obligation between 2026 and 2027, there is little reason to hold onto McDaniel since the team looked to have quit on him earlier in the season.
Hot Seat Meter: 8/10
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
Only Mike Tomlin has been at his post longer than Harbaugh, who was hired by the Ravens in 2008 to succeed Brian Billick. Harbaugh has a Super Bowl title from 2012 and masterfully transitioned the franchise from the Joe Flacco era to the Lamar Jackson one, but eventually any coaching marriage grows stale if the same voice remains in place for too long.
Ownership did hand Harbaugh a contract extension in the spring but they can't be pleased about the Baltimore's string of late-game collapses over the past two years, which cost them valuable seeding in 2024 and arguably the postseason this year. There is a possibility teams may try to trade for Harbaugh, whose track record is better than most of the candidates in this year's cycle, but the fact that Lamar Jackson missed so much time due to injury likely gives him a mulligan.
Hot Seat Meter: 2/10
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Stefanski has been the longest-tenured head coach of the re-activated Browns, with 2025 being his sixth season. The run has been largely successful with Stefanski winning two Coach of the Year awards when he took Cleveland to the playoffs in 2020 and 2023, notably winning a game at Pittsburgh in the 2020 Wild Card round with Baker Mayfield, but his tenure has been short-circuited by the collosal failure of the Deshaun Watson trade.
Owner Jimmy Haslam did take responsibility for the Watson mistake, but Stefanski hasn't helped himself by having a poor quarterback plan this season and failing to take advantage of a strong defense. With the possibility of a reboot under center (again) if Cleveland ends up with a top pick in the draft, the Browns may boot Stefanski to give a new coach a clean slate, but its safe to say that Stefanski wouldn't be unemployed for long given how much success he had in a dysfunctional environment.
Hot Seat Meter: 7/10
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Few coaches outside of Daboll and McDaniel entered 2025 with more to prove than Steichen, who went a combined 17-17 in his first two years while narrowly missing the playoffs in both. The addition of Daniel Jones appeared to revitalize Steichen as the Colts raced out to a 7-1 start, putting them in position to have the best record in the AFC, but a rash of injuries (including a season-ending Achilles' tear for Jones) have Indianapolis poised to fall out of the playoffs entirely if they lose tonight against San Francisco.
The Jones injury may offer Steichen a mulligan, especially after his controversial call to pull Philip Rivers out of retirement galvanized the locker room behind him. It is also unknown how new owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon, who took over after her father Jim passed away earlier this year, feels about Steichen's capability to lead a team that was backsliding even before Jones got hurt.
Hot Seat Meter: 5/10
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders
After publicly flirting with Ben Johnson last year, the Raiders made a surprising call to tab 73-year-old Pete Carroll to try and establish a new culture with Las Vegas. Carroll has brought some positive energy to the building but wins have not followed, with the Raiders the owners of the league's worst record at 2-13, and his decision to fire offensive coordinator Chip Kelly after making him the league's highest-paid coordinator looks very bad.
It's not Carroll's fault that GM John Spytek built a horrendous offensive line and wasted a premium asset on Ashton Jeanty, a talented running back who has had no room to maneuver behind said line, but this situation looks poised to be a one-and-done as the fit has not worked. Ending up with the worst record in the league could bring Fernando Mendoza to Las Vegas and it makes more sense to hire a younger offensive-minded coach to try and get the best out of him.
Hot Seat Meter: 8/10
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
Morris was likely out over his skis when he was named Tampa Bay's head coach at the age of 32, when he only had a few years of coaching experience, so it made sense for Atlanta to give him a second shot in 2024. Arthur Blank had hopes that Morris' ability to unite the locker room would get the most out of a talented Falcons' team that had underachieved for Arthur Smith, but things have not changed much in two years.
The high-water mark for Atlanta came in Week 5, when they beat the Bills in a primetime game to announce their arrival as a contender at 3-2, and they responded by dropping seven of their next eight games to be eliminated from playoff contention. A messy quarterback situation could actually benefit Morris since Kirk Cousins is headed for the exits after this year while Michael Penix is an unknown quantity coming off a torn ACL, which could make the job less appealing to external candidates. The fact the team is playing hard for Morris, winning two straight after being eliminated (including delivering a big dent to Tampa Bay's playoff hopes with a comeback win in another nationally televised spot), is also a help to his case to get a third season at the helm.
Hot Seat Meter: 5/10
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a rough first head coaching tenure with the Jets, Bowles has looked capable with Tampa Bay, taking over for Bruce Arians prior to the 2022 season and winning the NFC South in his first three seasons. That run included a strong transition from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield under center while his first two offensive coordinators (Dave Canales and Liam Coen) landed head coaching jobs, showing he knows how to identify talented coaches to fill out his staff.
Injuries have put a big dent into this year's Buccaneers, who hit their bye at 6-2 and dropped 6 of their next 7 games to lose control of the NFC South to an 8-7 Panthers' team. There has been a sense that Tampa Bay may have a ceiling of a Divisional Round exit under Bowles and if they collapse to miss the playoffs entirely Bowles could be thrown overboard to find a new coach to maximize this group's contention window.
Hot Seat Meter: 6/10 (And Rising)
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
It feels like every year there is a surprise firing or two that no one sees coming and LaFleur could be this year's candidate for that distinction. The trade for Micah Parsons accelerated Green Bay's contention window, but the Packers' inconsistent play even before losing Parsons to an Achilles' injury had raised attention on whether LaFleur is getting the most out of his team.
It looks like Green Bay is poised to land the No. 7 seed for a third consecutive year, which is not the kind of success Packers' fans are hoping for, and another early playoff exit could inspire change since all three of their rivals have won the division more recently than Green Bay has if Chicago wraps up the title over the next two weeks. LaFleur is only under contract through the end of next season so Green Bay will either need to extend him or move on to avoid an uncomfortable lame-duck situation in 2026.
Hot Seat Meter: 7/10
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals
The temperature on Gannon's seat was scalding early in the season as Arizona continuously found ways to blow leads late, with Gannon himself drawing criticism for putting his hands on running back Emeri Demercado after a critical mistake late in a collapse against Tennessee. The loss of Kyler Murray to injury appears to be a blessing in disguise for Gannon, whose team has been much more competitive with Jacoby Brissett under center.
It appears that Murray will be the scapegoat for the Cardinals, who will likely move on from their one-time franchise quarterback after the season, and Arizona is likely picking too late in the draft to add a quarterback in the first round. Giving Gannon a chance to reset with either another year of Brissett or a stop-gap veteran appears to be the play for Arizona, which can see if Gannon can establish a culture without Murray that could benefit whatever quarterback they try to land in the 2027 draft.
Hot Seat Meter: 4/10