While some teams will be continuing their push for the NFL Playoffs, others will be thinking about their NFL Draft position when it comes to their NFL Week 16 games. The Miami Dolphins, however, will start getting a full picture of their future as rookie Quinn Ewers has been tabbed to replace the now-benched Tua Tagovailoa against the Cincinnati Bengals. Though they can't financially move on from Tua after this season, replacing him is another matter entirely, and Ewers could more than make his case if he can lead Miami to a win at home against Cincy. And that adds a slice of fun to our NFL picks this week.
There's plenty of other fun to be had, though, of course. Thursday Night Football is a big one with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks vying for NFC West supremacy. We also get treated to another iteration of the Packers-Bears rivalry in Chicago on Saturday. Sunday delivers, too, with the Mahomes-less Chiefs with a chance to score a moral victory, and several key matchups for the playoff race. It's been a bit since we've seen a slate that I feel this good about — which is simultaneously comforting and terrifying, but let's make our NFL Week 16 picks with predictions straight-up and against the spread for all 16 games.
NFL Week 16 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 16 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Rams at Seahawks (TNF) | Rams | Rams -1.5 |
Eagles at Commanders (Sat.) | Eagles | Eagles -6.5 |
Packers at Bears (Sat.) | Bears | Bears +1.5 |
Chargers at Cowboys | Chargers | Chargers +2.5 |
Vikings at Giants | Vikings | Vikings -2.5 |
Bills at Browns | Bills | Browns +10.5 |
Jets at Saints | Saints | Saints -4.5 |
Buccaneers at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers +3 |
Bengals at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins +2.5 |
Chiefs at Titans | Chiefs | Chiefs -3.5 |
Falcons at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals +2.5 |
Jaguars at Broncos | Broncos | Broncos -3 |
Steelers at Lions | Lions | Lions -6.5 |
Raiders at Texans | Texans | Texans -14.5 |
Patriots at Ravens (SNF) | Patriots | Patriots +2.5 |
49ers at Colts (MNF) | 49ers | 49ers -6.5 |
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 131-93 (Last Week: 9-7 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 101-121-2 (Last Week: 8-8 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
We've already mentioned Bengals-Dolphins, Rams-Seahawks, Chiefs-Titans, and Packers-Bears as some of the big games this week, but that's what makes Week 16 feel quite special. That's especially true with so little time remaining in the regular season. But on Sunday, looks at Bucs-Panthers or Jags-Broncos, or even Steelers-Lions all offer us a glimpse into some postseason races. That, however, all leads up to one of the most consequential games of the week with Patriots-Ravens on Sunday Night Football as both teams fight for their playoff berths.
Don't forget the flip-side, though! Games like Vikings-Giants, Jets-Saints and several others will have major NFL Draft implications. That's what makes this time of the season so much damn fun, even if it can be stressful to make picks from time to time. It doesn't get much better than all of the drama and twists and turns that Week 16 has on full display.
Toughest NFL Week 16 prediction to make
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
In this historic NFC North rivalry, the Packers obviously won the first meeting with the Bears earlier this season. However, things have obviously changed since then, most notably with Micah Parson tearing his ACL.
Now, to be clear, Chicago isn't coming into this game healthy at all either. Rome Odunze could miss the action in Week 16, while Luther Burden III is also banged up. At the same time, though, the negative effect on Green Bay's defense caused by losing Parsons is just so much more dramatic. While the Bears have been finding their way offensively in the run game, the loss of Parsons is going to send ripples down the rest of the defense.
As wholes, I still think the Packers are the better team. Moreover, when it comes to playoff time, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see Green Bay maintain that as they adjust to life without Parsons following the ACL injury. But in the first game since that injury occurred, I'm going to side with Ben Johnson and a Bears team that has simply been better than people would like to give them credit for.
Easiest NFL Week 16 pick on the board
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
While we haven't yet gotten to the pick that's going to leave fans and people scratching their heads, you might think so. The Chiefs are about to start their first game this season without Patrick Mahomes, meaning that Gardner Minshew is going to be under center. Oh, and for good measure, Kansas City was just eliminated from the postseason, so there's really not much to play for.
That all seems to stack up in favor of the Titans — and yet, this remains an easy pick because Tennessee is just that bad. Cam Ward has kept up with the pattern wherein he's showing promise but is still making too many mistakes. Though Steve Spagnuolo's defense for the Chiefs has certainly been hit or miss this season, I think he has more than enough at his disposal to cause a world of problems for the rookie signal-caller in Nashville.
Make no mistake, I'm not optimistic about the Chiefs offense with Minshew. Despite the team's lack of overall or relative success, Mahomes was playing phenomenally this season, and this is a drastic step down. At the same time, this feels like a game in which the Kansas City defense is still dominant enough for them to not only win, but cover too.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Of course, we're going to talk more about Quinn Ewers taking over the Dolphins offense from Tua Tagovailoa (and over Zach Wilson). Not only are we going to keep talking about it, but we're taking the seventh-round rookie to step into that role and then beat the Bengals as underdogs on Sunday.
Now, anyone who's been with me for the past couple of years knows that I'm a big believer in Ewers, despite some of the obvious evidence. But I'm also of the belief that Mike McDaniel was never the problem with this Dolphins team — it was first the roster construction of Chris Grier and, perhaps more importantly, secondly the hamstringing limitations of Tagovailoa running the offense. And while Ewers isn't a perfect quarterback, he simply has less fear and perhaps more of an arm than Tua at this point.
So now Ewers gets to make this start against one of the worst defenses in the league, Cincinnati. Furthermore, though the Miami defense has been a sieve, the Bengals are coming off a dismal offensive showing against Baltimore. The vibes are atrocious with Joe Burrow and Company right now and, with the lackluster nature of their defense, I think Ewers takes over and ultimately starts a dialogue about next season and if he should get the shot to start with a decisive upset win.