The NFL Playoff bracket isn't set yet. There are still three weeks of games after the events of Week 15 to resolve. But what if the season ended now and the current standings decided the playoff matchups? Well, we'd get to see what playoff newcomers like the Patriots, Jaguars and Bears have in the tank while watching masters of the craft like Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford go to work. And we'd get much needed answers about what the Eagles, Seahawks, Chargers and 49ers are actually capable of.
How would the playoffs play out if they started today? Let's have a look.
How the AFC bracket would look if the playoffs started after Week 15
Wild Card round
No. 7 Houston Texans (9-5) at No. 2 New England Patriots (11-3)
The Texans had a rough start in 2025, dropping to 3-5 in the early going. They've surged back six straight wins, including Week 15's 40-20 beat down of the Cardinals. That's without CJ Stroud for three of those wins. With wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Colts and Chiefs in that span, Houston is hitting their stride at just the right time.
As for the Patriots, the vibes are a bit different. New England blew a 24-7 lead over Buffalo in Foxborough. The Pats are already dealing with accusations of a fraudulent record having played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year (to be fair, the Bills, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers and Bears are not that far behind). The loss to Josh Allen and company isn't helping keep a lid on things.
Houston has played the fourth-toughest schedule, making them battle-tested coming into the playoffs. They've got the second-best defense in FPI even if their offense leaves something to be desired. Still, CJ Stroud and this team have made it out of the first round each of the last two years. As excellent as he's been this year, Drake Maye will be getting his first taste. An upset is brewing here.
TL;DR Defense wins playoff games and the Texans own that edge.
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (10-4) at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
The Jaguars have won five in a row with Trevor Lawrence playing some of the best football of his career in recent weeks. This is the QB Jacksonville was ready to pin their hopes on. As impressive as this run has been for Liam Coen, I'm not losing sight of the fact that two of their four losses have come by more than a TD against contenders like the Seahawks and Rams. They split the season series with the Texans and beat the Chargers and the collapsing Colts. Their record against playoff teams is still a question.
The biggest issue for the Jaguars is their first round competition, assuming the Patriots hold on to win the AFC East. Josh Allen and the Bills haven't been able to get over the hump in the playoffs, but that has far more to do with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Buffalo is coming off a momentum-building win over the Patriots. With Allen seemingly coming out of his concerning midseason slump, the Bills will be a scary playoff prospect for everyone in their path.
TL;DR I'll take Josh Allen over Trevor Lawrence every day and twice on Sundays.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
If it were as simple as picking the 10-4 Chargers against the 7-6 Steelers, there wouldn't even be a debate. Pittsburgh is a middling team with middling postseason aspirations. But it's not that simple, because the Justin Herbert is playing through a broken left hand (non-throwing hand) and I can't confidently say what that will mean for LA in the postseason.
Herbert hadn't been playing particularly well even before he suffered the injury in an overtime win over the Eagles. He's a warrior for playing the entirety of that game and playing the week after undergoing hand surgery. He put up 210 yards in a 16-13 win over the Chiefs. That's impressive.
But what'll it be like when Herbert has to play in 34-degree January weather in Pittsburgh?
The good news is the Chargers have a first round matchup with the Steelers, a team they already beat by 15 this season despite Herbert playing his worst game with both hands intact. Even if the QB isn't at full strength, LA's sixth-ranked defense can pick up the slack.
TL;DR Justin Herbert could have a broken throwing hand and I'd still pick the Chargers over the Steelers.
Divisional round
No. 7 Houston Texans (9-5 at No. 6 Buffalo Bills (10-4)
This will be a fun matchup of opposites with the No. 2 ranked FPI defense of the Texans taking on the No. 4 ranked offense of the Bills. And on the other side, it's the No. 24 ranked offense of Houston against the No. 16 ranked defense of Buffalo. Good on good. Bad on bad.
Playing this game at Highmark Stadium gives the Bills a significant advantage. The Texans are 0-4 in their last playoff games played below 30 degrees. And when it comes down to it: Josh Allen > CJ Stroud.
TL;DR Brr, it's cold in here, there must be some Bills in the atmosphere.
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (12-2)
The Broncos might be the most balanced team in the NFL this year. They rank eighth in FPI defense and 10th in FPI offense. Bo Nix has been a middle-of-the-pack quarterback, but that's all Sean Payton needs from him. When you only give up 18.3 points per game, scoring 25 points per game is more than enough. Everything about Denver's offense is just fine. Critically, they're better than fine at avoiding turnovers, with a turnover rate of 7.7, seventh in the NFL.
The Chargers have a higher ceiling on offense, but they haven't hit it thus far. I don't expect that to change with Justin Herbert playing through a broken hand and wide receiver Quentin Johnston and right tackle Trey Pipkins dealing with injuries themselves. That's without even mentioning season-ending injuries to tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Could LA's defense give them a chance by shutting down Nix and company? Maybe, but this team has been punching above their weight all season and they can only scrape and claw so far.
TL;DR Covered in black and blue, the Chargers finally stay down.
Championship round
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (10-4) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (12-2)
The Broncos have lost two games by a combined four points. Since those losses, they've won 11 straight. They're the No. 1 seed in the AFC and have the best record in football. So why, oh why, can't I bring myself to project them into the Super Bowl?
Maybe it's the nature of their record. They haven't beaten a 10-win team yet this season. They'll get their opportunity with the Jaguars and Chargers coming to town in the final three games, but those results are yet to come. Their best wins are over the Packers, Eagles and Texans. Green Bay led 23-21 in the third quarter before Micah Parsons and Christian Watson exited the game with injury. The Eagles may have the Fans of the Year, but the team hardly looks like a true contender this year. And the Texans had Davis Mills at quarterback after CJ Stroud suffered a first-quarter concussion.
Don't get me wrong, the Bills' schedule has been just as soft. And they lost to the Dolphins and Falcons for Christ's sake. But Josh Allen has thrown 25 touchdowns to just four interceptions in his playoff career. If not for Patrick Mahomes, he'd have played in several Super Bowls by now. This is his opening.
TL;DR Am I putting too much faith in Josh Allen and the Bills? Yes, yes I am. Will I do anything about it? No, no I won't.
How the NFC bracket would look if the playoffs started after Week 15
Wild Card round
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (10-4)
It's a real shame the Packers lost Micah Parsons to a season-ending knee injury, because they would have been a monster to deal with in the playoffs. They may still be with Jordan Love playing as well as he ever has. PFF has him graded just one slot below Matthew Stafford among quarterbacks. Unfortunately, Love and that offense have been weighed down by their defense before. Parsons was their magic bullet, and now he's gone.
The Packers beat the Bears just a couple of weeks ago, keeping the race for the division crown alive, but that was a close game at Lambeau Field. One in which Chicago had to account for Parsons on every play. When they play again this weekend at Soldier Field, we'll find out just how much of a difference he makes.
The Bears aren't the finished article yet. They're the lowest-rated 10-win team in FPI with an mid-level offense (12th) and defense (13). However, Ben Johnson has them believing in a way we've rarely seen. And I like them in this spot for that reason.
TL;DR No Micah Parsons, mo problems. Mo Ben Johnson, mo belief.
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
God grant me the serenity to accept the things I do not know (like whether the Eagles or 49ers are any good), courage to make a pick I'm not slightly confident in (like whether the Philadelphia can beat San Francisco) and wisdom to know when to stop waffling (over which one is more likely to disappoint me).
The Eagles lost three games in a row, only breaking out of their slump to trounce the hapless Raiders. That same team beat the Lions, Packers, Buccaneers and Rams this year. Philadelphia was an unstoppable force on the ground last year with an expected points contributed on the ground of 91.17. That same team now ranks 24th in yards per attempt with EXP of 1.53. Yes, that decimal is in the right place.
As for the 49ers, they've won 10 games despite losing Brock Purdy for half the season. Kyle Shanahan proved once again he can get the best out of any quarterback by making Mac Jones look like a capable starter. Christian McCaffrey is still Christian McCaffrey. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are still studs.
Is it really that simple after an injury-plagued 6-11 season. Are the Niners back and ready to compete for Super Bowls again? Is skepticism still warranted? Is it time to trust Shanahan again? Maybe it is...
TL;DR Fine! Fine! I give up! All vibes time: 49ers. Are you happy now?
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-3) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
The Seahawks are the most efficient team in FPI so far this season, ranking first in defense and special teams and ninth in offense. Sam Darnold has lived up to the expectations from his standout year in Minnesota (critically bouncing back from a concerning late-season dip). Mike Macdonald's defense is holding teams to the lowest yards per play in the league and the second-fewest points. They could even still claim the NFC West crown.
Sorry Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, home field is your only advantage. Sometimes it feels like Tampa Bay and Carolina are in a battle of who wants to lose the division more. They're riding in a parallel competition with the Colts for who can back their way into the playoffs least impressively. The Bucs have lost six of their last eight games. Sure, we'll forgive them for losses to the Patriots, Bills and Rams. But a three-point win over the Cardinals followed by divisional losses to the Saints and Falcons? Oof.
TL;DR I wouldn't touch the Buccaneers in these predictions with a 39-and-a-half foot pole.
Divisional round
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (10-4)
Every good story has to end some time and it's here that I see a magical season ending for the Bears. They've exceeded expectations (literally, the oddsmakers put their win total over/under at 7.5) but outperforming the odds in the regular season doesn't count for much in the playoffs.
As much as I don't trust the 49ers' defense, their offense can ride with most teams. In the playoffs, efficiency is king. It's simply more likely that Caleb Williams and his young supporting cast will slip up more often than Brock Purdy and company. There's experience on the field and sidelines for San Francisco. Being there before means something.
TL;DR It would be fun if the Bears made it all the way to the NFC title game, but Ben Johnson doesn't have those pieces in place just yet.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-3) at No. 1 Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
If the Seahawks grab a win over their division rivals on Thursday Night Football in Seattle, my opinion here might change. As it is, the Rams are a more complete team than the Seahawks with a more battle-tested head coach and quarterback. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have been in this rodeo together before. And it helps that they won't have to deal with the 12th man at a game played in Los Angeles.
Seattle's defense is a wild card here, because they're capable of throwing a wrench in just about any offense they face. However, their offense needs to make the most of each possession to reward their efforts. Sam Darnold has the highest interception rate of any playoff quarterback this year and the Seahawks as a whole have committed the second-most turnovers in the NFL. You won't make it to the NFC Championship Game unless you protect the football. Notably, the Rams have committed just one more turnover (12) than Darnold has interceptions (11).
TL;DR Sam Darnold turnovers give the Rams the edge over the Seahawks
Championship round
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at No. 1 Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
The 49ers and Rams faced off in the NFC title game in January of 2022 with Los Angeles punching their ticket to the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford out dueled Jimmy Garoppolo, while Los Angeles scored 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win.
San Francisco has upgraded at QB with Brock Purdy but Matthew Stafford is still playing at an MVP level at 37 years old. He's traded one prolific receiver (Cooper Kupp) for another (Puka Nacua). Even more critically, Sean McVay has upgraded his defense, allowing just 18.6 points per game this season (the Super Bowl Champion Rams allowed 21.9).
The last time the Rams faced the 49ers, Stafford tossed four touchdowns in a blowout win in Santa Clara. This one might be tighter, but the outcome won't be different.
TL;DR Who's stopping the Rams? It's not the 49rs.
Super Bowl prediction after Week 15
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (10-4) vs. No. 1 Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
The last time the Bills played the Rams, the two met at SoFi Stadium in a thrilling shootout. LA won 44-42, surviving Josh Allen's three fourth quarter touchdowns. Who doesn't want to see a repeat of that one?
Buffalo's defense has quietly hit their stride with the regular season ending. LA is also far more capable of shutting down an opposing attack. So this time it might not be an +80-point thrill ride. It would still be a matchup with juicy storylines to follow.
Allen and Matthew Stafford are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Like Stafford before he broke through with the Rams, Allen needs only a Super Bowl ring to secure his legacy. Rams receiver Davonte Adams is in a similar boat after an illustrious career. Stafford himself could be looking to go out on top with another ring.
So who gets their happy ending? Give me the Rams.