How did we get to the NFL Christmas Day slate and just two weeks remaining in the regular season already? This year has completely flown by as we go into Week 17, but that doesn't mean we don't have a treat. Yes, the holiday games are going to be fun (even if they aren't the best games that we've ever seen, thanks largely to the Kansas City Chiefs), but it's a nice appetizer before a big weekend that will climax with the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers clashing on Sunday night. All that to say, it's a fun time to be making NFL picks and predictions with what this Week 17 has to offer.
Bears-49ers is going to be electric in primetime, but it's not alone on the slate. We have plenty of games like the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles in a cross-conference showdown with playoff implications, but there are also a ton of matchups that will have a major effect on the NFL Draft and the draft order specifically. We have that all in mind and are ready to rock now with this full slate of NFL picks, providing predictions for all 16 games in Week 17 straight-up and against the spread.
NFL Week 17 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 17 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys at Commanders (XMas) | Cowboys | Cowboys -7 |
Lions at Vikings (XMas) | Lions | Lions -7.5 |
Broncos at Chiefs (XMas) | Broncos | Broncos -12.5 |
Texans at Chargers (Sat.) | Texans | Texans +1.5 |
Ravens at Packers (Sat.) | Ravens | Ravens +3 |
Buccaneers at Dolphins | Buccaneers | Dolphins +5.5 |
Cardinals at Bengals | Bengals | Bengals -7 |
Steelers at Browns | Browns | Browns +3 |
Patriots at Jets | Patriots | Patriots -13.5 |
Jaguars at Colts | Jaguars | Jaguars -6.5 |
Seahawks at Panthers | Seahawks | Seahawks -7.5 |
Saints at Titans | Saints | Saints -3 |
Giants at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders -1.5 |
Eagles at Bills | Bills | Bills -1.5 |
Bears at 49ers (SNF) | Bears | Bears +3 |
Rams at Falcons (MNF) | Rams | Rams -8.5 |
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 141-99 (Last Week: 10-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 110-128-2 (Last Week: 9-7 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Late in the season, we always get some scheduling quirks, but none as quirky as this one. The shift for Christmas Day gives us three games on the holiday, but it doesn't stop there either. We also get a pair of games — both of which are better than any of the ones being played in the 25th — on Saturday before an obviously lighter Sunday slate of action.
With that said, we should still get quite a good slate of games. Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers should gives us a rush of blood to the head on Saturday, then we get some terrific matchups on Sunday. Seahawks-Panthers is a sneaky fun game, Giants-Raiders may be two bad teams, but features a ton of draft implications, and then, of course, Eagles-Bills and Bears-49ers give us a massive nightcap in the late window and on Sunday Night Football, respectively.
Speaking of that big NFC showdown in San Francisco, we'll start there as that was quite a tough pick to make in Week 17.
Toughest NFL Week 17 prediction to make
Chicago Bears (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
Make no mistake, the 49ers have been cruising over the past month — but maybe we should look a bit closer at what that's actually looked like. Over their five-game winning streak, San Francisco has beaten the "murderer's row" of the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, Titans, and Philip Rivers-led Colts. That's not to entirely diminish how dominant Brock Purdy and Co. have been in these games, but there's no denying that they've faced inferior competition across this run.
What makes that interesting is the apparent lack of respect we've seen for the Bears over their recent run of success. They're 4-1 over their last five games, and three of those four victories have come against teams currently in the playoffs — the Steelers, Eagles and Packers. And on top of that, their one loss was on the road at Green Bay, and Chicago got their lick back two weeks later in last week's overtime thriller.
If that weren't enough, the Bears are coming off a long rest after playing on Saturday in Week 16, while the 49ers have short rest after playing on Monday night. These two teams are close in terms of their quality, but I like Chicago's situation just a hair better, so I'm taking them as the road dog to win outright.
Easiest NFL Week 17 pick on the board
New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Jets
It'd be completely understandable that you would consider taking the Jets here, especially if you look at the previous matchup this season between these two division rivals when the Patriots were at home. New England only won that game 27-14, which obviously wouldn't be a cover with this line for the favorite, and is now on the road at MetLife Stadium in what should be a cold environment that could limit scoring.
Here's the thing, though — that consideration does not take into account how awful the Jets have looked over the last three weeks. Tyrod Taylor returning and starting over Brady Cook would certainly help alleviate some of that, but that's also not a guarantee. More importantly, however, the New York defense has fallen completely off a cliff as the offense has struggled, giving up at least 29 points in each of the three losses, which came against the Saints, Jags and Dolphins. The smallest losing margin over that span has also been 23 points.
Drake Maye and the Patriots could overlook this game, if not for the fact that they're still competing for the No. 1 seed. I think the Jets are simply mailing in these final few weeks, and that's going to lead to them getting molly whopped by New England in this matchup.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (+5.5)
I promise this isn't just be overhyping Quinn Ewers for no reason. In fact, the Dolphins side of this equation is not one that anyone should feel confident in, especially with the way the defense has performed over the back half of the regular season. Tampa is still the pick straight-up for this game, but I'm taking Miami against the spread at home because of what the Bucs have looked like of late.
Tampa Bay has completely wasted their hold on the NFC South and are now trailing the Panthers in the division race. While that could (and should) increase the sense of urgency, the Bucs haven't shown signs of being capable of that. They come into this matchup having lost three straight games to the division, two of them coming at home and while allowing at least 23 points in each of those defeats.
Miami, for all its faults, can still score and the Buccaneers defense appears more than willing to give it up right now. The Dolphins defense is going to do the same, to be sure, but there should be enough offense to go around this game to keep it within that 5.5-point number, especially with the 'Phins at home.