With just two games remaining that will determine our Super Bowl LX, the quarterback narratives feel like what's driving the NFL Playoffs forward. Is Drake Maye already going to carry the New England Patriots to the Promised Land in year two? Could Jarrett Stidham have his own Nick Foles run with the Denver Broncos after Bo Nix's injury? Will we see Sam Darnold fight off the demons for good by taking the Seattle Seahawks to the Super Bowl? Does Matthew Stafford getting another ring with the Los Angeles Rams mean we should have his bust in Canton getting made already? And that's just the QBs suiting up in the AFC and NFC Championship Games this weekend as we make our picks.
Make no mistake, the NFL Playoffs to this point have been fascinating and highly entertaining. And there's a real chance we get some proverbial new blood playing for a Super Bowl once we get through conference championship Sunday. But we've been hot in the postseason with our NFL picks and predictions, so let's do it once more, going straight-up and against the spread for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games this weekend, with some analysis on the two matchups, of course.
AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
- TV Channel: CBS
- Point Spread: NE -4.5
- Total O/U: 42.5
Jarrett Stidham being thrust into action for Denver in this game is obviously the biggest storyline. It's not just that the Broncos lost Bo Nix to an ankle injury, which would be devastating in its own right, but they're now handing the keys to a quarterback who hasn't thrown a pass all season, and who hasn't made a start since the 2023 campaign. And now they face a Patriots team that's not only healthy, but also posted the same regular-season record as well.
Because of the quarterback situation, all immediate logic would point you toward taking New England. At the same time, Drake Maye hasn't been a world-beater in these playoffs, albeit while playing against a highly underrated Chargers defense and the all-world Texans defense. Even still, Denver is in that same mold, and the Broncos might be at their most dangerous in this game when they don't have the ball in their hands — especially with this game at Mile High.
All this is to say, the line for this game shifted by nearly a touchdown after the Nix injury — but is that too much of an overreaction? Nick Foles led the Eagles to the Super Bowl as a backup, albeit with a bit more experience before the playoffs, and not making his first throw of the year in the AFC Championship Game.
Straight-Up Pick: Patriots | ATS Pick: Patriots -4.5
Let me be clear that I don't think that the Patriots are going to pummel the Broncos simply because Stidham is the starter for Denver. I have a ton of faith in Maye as an ascending young star, but he's shown that he's susceptible against elite defenses, and that's what the Broncos have. When you combine that with a home environment, New England's offense could very well be quite stop-and-go in this matchup.
However, what I can't escape is the Patriots defense and how that unit factors into this. Both Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud looked almost like they didn't belong in the NFL against what New England and Mike Vrabel were throwing at them. Against a sack and interception-prone quarterback like Stidham (not to mention one who Josh McDaniels is familiar with), that simply doesn't bode well for them.
The AFC is likely decided quite similarly to how the Pats-Texans game. Denver's defense will do enough to keep them in it for a while, but it'll be New England's defense that ultimately allows them to pull away and secure the victory.
NFC Championship Game: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 25
- Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
- TV Channel: FOX
- Point Spread: SEA -2.5
- Total O/U: 46.5
It's fitting that we get to conclude a trilogy between the Seahawks and Rams with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Though there were ebbs and flows to the season, these two teams separated themselves atop the NFC over the course of the year, though obviously only one could win the division.
But in the two regular-season meetings for Seattle and Los Angeles, they not only split the pair of games, but did so by a combined score of Rams 58, Seahawks 57. It goes well beyond just this season, though. The two franchises have met 57 times in their respective histories, with Seattle holding a 29-28 advantage overall, but with the cumulative score giving the Seahawks just a one-point margin (1,223-1,222).
That's exactly what this game feels like, too. At this point, it'd be foolish to not have more faith in the Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay combo offensive given their experience than you would in Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak. At the same time, the Seahawks defense is truly one of the best in football, and has slowed the Rams down once already this season.
For the third time around, though, what's going to give?
Straight Up Pick: Rams | ATS Pick: Rams +2.5
Though the Seahawks ultimately won the second meeting between these NFC West rivals (in Seattle, no less), the way that game played out would terrify me if I was a Seahawks fan. The Rams put up 37 points in a game that went to overtime, and it seemed as if Sean McVay found the antidote to attacking Mike Macdonald's offense. And while Seattle answered enough times to get the win in that one, do they really have enough to do it again?
As much as I would love for the Sam Darnold Renaissance to carry him to a Super Bowl berth, this feels like where the buck stops. I'm taking cues from that final regular-season meeting and think the Rams have figured out how to attack the Seattle defense, and I don't believe Darnold will have enough answers for what Stafford puts on the board. To be sure, it'll be another nail-biting close game, but LA will eke out a win on the road and try to get McVay a second ring.
2025-26 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 169-113 (Last Week: 3-1 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 134-145-3 (Last Week: 3-1 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.