The championship rounds are here, with four NFL teams left standing: Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams in the NFC, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots in the AFC.
These are juicy matchups. Drake Maye against that Broncos defense, with Jarrett Stidham hoping to follow in Nick Foles' footsteps as a backup QB facing New England on the main stage. The Rams and Seahawks are division foes, already responsible for one of the best games of this season. In the end, however, only two can advance. There are four potential Super Bowl matchups. Here are the best possible outcomes:
4. Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams
Entertainment and Intrigue Grade: C+
The Bo Nix injury puts a damper on Denver's intrigue — there's no way around it — but here's the thing. The Broncos have won on the strength of their defense all season. Bo Nix does not play defense. Moreover, Jarrett Stidham is much better than your average backup. He has quite proudly stated that he considers himself a starting-caliber QB. That is up for debate, but Stidham has captained the ship well in past NFL starts. It's not like he's replacing Tom Brady either.
Denver won 14 games and exerted its will against opponents all season. Sean Payton is a Super Bowl-winning coach known for maximizing the performance of his QBs. This matchup pits an old-school offensive whiz in Payton against the new school leader in Sean McVay. It feels like McVay has been around forever, but the dude is turning 40 this week.
That clash of offensive styles and philosophies should keep this game interesting. Los Angeles is pretty clearly the weakest defensive unit left in the postseason. Carolina put up 31 with Bryce Young. The Chicago game was more of a rock fight with snow and a subzero wind chill, but Caleb Williams found cracks when he needed to.
This should allow Stidham and company to keep things interesting, ideally. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford — the betting favorite to win league MVP — would face his toughest test on football's grandest stage. Denver's ballhawking DB room will give L.A.'s star-driven offense a proper challenge. The Rams do not run the football well. The Broncos will apply pressure, squeeze routes, and do their damndest to flip the game script in their favor. This game still has juice, especially if it means Denver has already dispatched Drake Maye, Stafford's primary MVP challenger.
3. Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks
Entertainment and Intrigue Grade: B
The Broncos are docked slightly without Bo Nix, again, but it's hard to complain about a battle of No. 1 seeds. If the dropoff talent-wise from Nix to Stidham is as marginal as it feels — if Denver beats New England puts the fear of God back into teams — this matchup will still command plenty of intrigue.
Seattle ranked second in the NFL in estimated points added (-0.12) per play on defense. Denver essentially tied for sixth (-0.09). These are the best defenses left in the postseason. We've seen the Broncos win a Super Bowl by dominating the line of scrimmage fairly recently. A decade ago, with a crumbling Peyton Manning. Seattle's most recent Super Bowl era was also built on elite defense. The Legion of Boom. We all know the narratives at play here.
This is another fascinating chess match on the coaching front, with Payton's offensive savvy pitted against the whiz-kid defensive mind of 38-year-old Mike Macdonald. Denver's exceptional pass defense should challenge Klint Kubiak and Sam Darnold, who remains unproven on such a grand stage. Seattle, meanwhile, tends to put a stopper on the run game, meaning Stidham would need to step up to the plate and deliver big throws to keep the chains moving for Denver.
Absent the MVP frontrunners in either conference, this matchup does lack the outright star quality of other potential showdowns. From a schematic and personnel standpoint, however, it might be the most even match left on the table. This would be a tense, competitive, spirited football game with the ultimate stakes. What more could you ask for?
2. New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks
Entertainment and Intrigue Grade: B+
Unstoppable force (Patriots offense) meets immovable object (Seahawks defense). Seattle is built to put a lid on Drake Maye scrambles and apply constant pressure on a weaker Pats O-line. From the jump, this is a real put up or shut up test for the NFL's next superstar quarterback. So often, the greats must fall before they reach the mountaintop. If Maye is going to buck that trend and jump immediately to the top of the NFL hierarchy, it would require a brilliant performance in a tough matchup.
That said, New England does hold some advantages here. The Pats are not typically a team reliant on the run game. Seattle's defensive backfield is solid, but the Seahawks win in the trenches. If Maye can get a clean pocket, he's going to put up some fireworks and Seattle will be on the ropes.
That's where the Seahawks offense comes in. The Patriots are the most efficient passing offense in the NFL right now, but Seattle likes to chuck the football — a lot. And when Sam Darnold finds a rhythm, he can look as good as any quarterback in the NFL. The arm talent is major. The redemption arc is a ripe narrative. New England has really gotten after the QB against Los Angeles and Houston. That defense is turning a corner, but can it keep the lid on Seattle's big-play engine? The answer to that question may determine the outcome of this game.
Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald are two coaches from very different backgrounds who would probably be great friends in a different timeline. These teams both play physical football, with a focus on intent and willpower in all areas. Darnold-Maye is more fun than folks think. These defenses should land their blows. This game has all-time classic potential.
1. New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Entertainment and Intrigue Grade: A+
This is what we all want, yeah? Unless you are a Seahawks or Broncos fan, you probably want to see the two best offenses in the NFL face off. Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye have gone head-to-head in the awards discourse all season. Stafford probably has the edge, but Maye's case is quite strong, especially when considering all the variables at play.
Stafford has breezed through his age-38 season, pulling the strings on the NFL's most talented offense. Puka Nacua has an MVP case on an alternate timeline. He led the league in receiving yards. Stafford led the league in passing touchdowns (and yards). Davante Adams leads the league in receiving touchdowns. McVay runs a tight ship and while talent has never been lacking for L.A., this group in particular is built to bulldoze the competition.
Maye, on the other hand, has operated behind a flawed offensive line, with a much less established group of pass-catchers. Stefon Diggs is Stefon Diggs, but this Pats roster pales in comparison to LA's on paper. And yet Maye has been so efficient, so prolific, with a run element that Stafford cannot replicate.
The QB battle alone plants this matchup firmly at the top of the wishlist. It's a chance for Stafford to cement his Hall of Fame legacy with a second Super Bowl ring. It's a chance for Maye to topple the old guard and submit his claim as the league's best player. To return the Patriots to glory in a post-Tom Brady world, an outcome nobody thought possible before the season.
Both teams are equipped with talented defenses, but neither is good enough to prevent fireworks with such talented QBs on the other side. Mike Vrabel is all about winning the battle up front. Sean McVay is a madman with the play sheet. There's just a lot of juice to this matchup, football-wise, narrative-wise, however else you want to qualify it. There is no bad Super Bowl matchup at this point, but Rams-Patriots feels like a proper spectacle.