Christmas is just days away and the NFL playoff picture is nearly set. Week 16's results saw eight more teams punch their postseason tickets, leaving only four spots up for grabs, with the potential for all of them to be accounted for by the close of play on Sunday.
Who is in a good position heading down the stretch, and who entered the holiday week with a lump of coal in their stocking? Read on for a look at the latest NFL playoff-themed stock watch, with Aaron Rodgers firmly on the rise.
NFL Stock Watch: Risers
Aaron Rodgers
After a disappointing two year run with the New York Jets, Rodgers is finding more joy in football again as he is on the verge of returning to the postseason for the first time in four years. Sunday's dramatic win in Detroit, when combined with Baltimore's loss to New England on Sunday night, left the Steelers a win or Ravens' loss away from securing the AFC North crown.
Rodgers has stepped up his game since the calendar flipped to December, throwing four touchdown passes with no picks in the past three games with a passer rating of at least 92.1 in all three of Pittsburgh's wins. In an AFC postseason field without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and (in all likelihood) Lamar Jackson, there is no reason why a red-hot Rodgers can't turn back the clock to help the Steelers win a postseason game for the first time in a decade.
San Francisco 49ers
The crazy finish in Seahawks-Rams drew all of the oxygen in the room for the NFC West, but San Francisco is sneaking right back into the hunt for the division crown. Monday night's blowout win in Indianapolis was the fifth in a row for the 49ers, who are a game back of Seattle with a chance to steal the division with a win in Santa Clara in Week 18.
Brock Purdy was firing on all cylinders against the Colts, tossing five touchdown passes to win a game that had shootout vibes early on, and his return has elevated the 49ers' offense to a new level. The injuries to the 49ers' defense would crush most teams but the return of Robert Saleh as defensive coordinator has allowed them to mask some of those deficiencies with excellent schemes, making them a legitimate dark horse to win the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has leveled up over the past few weeks and the Jaguars look like the best team in the AFC. Sunday's two touchdown win in Denver, one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL, was a statement-making result that established Jacksonville as the team no one wants to play right now.
A win over the Colts combined with a Houston loss at Los Angeles on Saturday would secure the AFC South crown for Jacksonville, who still remains in play for the top seed if they win out while New England and Denver each lose one game. Liam Coen is also climbing up Coach of the Year ballots for his tremendous work with Lawrence, who is having a much-needed breakout after years of inconsistent play under Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson.
NBC
The NFL's Week 16 schedule is spread pretty thin thanks to its Christmas tripleheader on Netflix and Amazon Prime but NBC has to be thrilled with their draw. Saturday night's Holiday Exclusive on Peacock has huge playoff stakes with Baltimore fighting to stay alive against Green Bay, who can wrap up a playoff spot with a win, while Sunday night's originally scheduled 49ers-Bears game looks much more appealing than it did when the schedule came out in May.
San Francisco and Chicago are two of the contenders for the top seed in the NFC with the contest serving as, at minimum, a postseason preview. Fans will be glued to NBC on Sunday night while there should be a nice uptick in Peacock subscriptions to check out the Saturday night showdown.
New Orleans Saints
They may not be postseason bound this year, but the Saints look like a team to keep an eye on for the 2026 season. Tyler Shough's ascension to the starting role has proved to be a turning point for New Orleans, which has seem their rookie quarterback steadily improve and helped them win four of their last six games.
Even though those results have taken the Saints out of play for the top pick in April's draft, Kellen Moore has to be encouraged by his team's 3-1 record against Tampa Bay and Carolina over that stretch. The Buccaneers and Panthers have been the NFC South's top teams this season so it's not hard to imagine New Orleans vying for the division title next fall with a good offseason and continued improvement from Shough.
NFL Stock Watch - Fallers
Baltimore Ravens
Another blown lead late for the Baltimore Ravens may be the death blow for their season, who fell to the New England Patriots on Sunday night to lose control of their postseason destiny. Any loss for Baltimore or win from Pittsburgh, who faces the hapless Browns on Sunday before a rematch with the Ravens at Acrisure Stadium in Week 18, will eliminate the Ravens from postseason contention.
A 1-5 start and chronic injuries to Lamar Jackson have been killers for Baltimore, who watched their star quarterback depart Sunday night's game early with a back contusion that left him in significant pain. There is a chance Jackson may not be able to power through the pain for Saturday night's contest against the Packers, leaving Baltimore's fate in the hands of Tyler Huntley, which is not how most Ravens' fans drew up a season that began with so much promise.
Officiating
When two of the craziest games of the year are being overshadowed by officiating questions, it's not a good thing for the NFL. The controversial two-point decision in Seattle on Thursday night was not properly handled by the game's refs, who did a poor job explaining the situation in a call that could decide home field advantage in the NFC.
Another crazy finish came in Detroit, where a wild sequence that saw Jared Goff scoop up a loose football to score the winning touchdown for the Lions wiped off the board due to an offensive pass interference call earlier in the play on Amon-Ra St. Brown. Even though the call was correct, the officials did not offer a clear explanation, leaving fans and players staring around in confusion wondering what exactly just happened on a play that effectively swung the fates of several team's seasons.
Indianapolis Colts
While Shane Steichen's decision to go to Philip Rivers at quarterback was an inspired one that galvanized his locker room, it hasn't resulted in any stoppage of the bleeding of the Colts' season. Rivers played well against the 49ers on Monday night, throwing for 277 yards with two touchdowns against one pick, but that interception was returned for a touchdown and Indianapolis' short-handed defense was gashed for 440 yards of offense in a 48-27 defeat.
The loss was the fifth in a row for the Colts, who are now on the brink of postseason elimination if they lose one more game or Houston earns one more victory in their final two games. The collapse a 7-1 start to the season to potentially missing the playoffs is a wild one that could cost Steichen his job if owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon feels that the loss of Daniel Jones to an Achilles' tear in Week 14 isn't an excuse for flopping down the stretch.
Denver Broncos' Defense
Experts have regarded the Denver Broncos' defense as one of the best units in the league this season, but they have hit a skid at the worst possible time. The Athletic's Mike Sando noted in his Pick Six column this week that the Broncos' defense ranks 29th in the league in defensive EPA (expected points added) since Week 11, a stretch that has seen Denver surrender 24.4 points per game.
Bo Nix and the offense are not built to carry Denver through a rugged AFC, which has a ton of elite defenses in its playoff field like Jacksonville, New England, Houston and Los Angeles. A game against a Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs' offense on Christmas could be a much-needed morale boost for the unit, which needs to clean up a lot if they hope to hold on to the top seed in the AFC and make a Super Bowl run.
Christmas Schedule
The NFL hit a home run with its Christmas doubleheader a year ago as Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore and Kansas City were all in postseason contention at that point, creating a ton of drama for Netflix's first live games. The stakes are much lower for this year's Christmas games, with four teams eliminated from postseason contention and a fifth barely hanging onto life as Detroit could be bounced if they lose to Minnesota.
Injuries have also wrecked the quarterback play for the Christmas games, which could see a third-stringer start in each game: Josh Johnson for Washington, Max Brosmer for the Vikings and the aforementioned Oladokun for Kansas City. Denver is the only team playing on Christmas that is playoff bound and the quality of football could be quite poor with this many backup quarterbacks under center for standalone games.