Black Monday is near, which means some head coaches won't survive the coming week. The AFC North division, for one, could see a complete overhaul from top to bottom thanks to Kevin Stefanski, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh and Zac Taylor – though some of those longer-tenured coaches will receive a second (or third) chance at redemption.
Compared to last offseason, there will be far less openings, thanks in large part to the overall lack of big-name assistants available. There is no Ben Johnson or Liam Coen in this class. Instead, former head coaches like Mike McCarthy and Brian Flores are searching for another opportunity. That's where the Raiders and Tom Brady come in.
Tom Brady could revive the Patriot way with the Raiders
Brady isn't your average minority owner. While Mark Davis and even Brady deserve a lot of blame for how poor this Raiders season has gone, owners cannot be fired. Brady has avoided a hot seat of his own concoction so far, despite being featured prominently in football operations and playing a large role in the hiring on Pete Carroll (who is likely to be fired after just one season), and the trade for embattled quarterback Geno Smith.
The future Hall-of-Fame quarterback knows he has blood on his hands. Thus, he will retreat to what he knows best. There are rumblings around the NFL that Brady may try to put a Patriot-like coaching staff together this time around. That starts with former Patriots defensive coordinator (and current Vikings DC) Brian Flores, who should receive plenty of interviews in this head coaching cycle. Brian Daboll, who was fired by the Giants midway through this past season, could be a popular offensive coordinator choice for the Raiders as well if they hire a defensive mind in Flores as their head coach.
Plenty has changed in the NFL since Brady last played in New England, but the same core of coaches remain a mainstay elsewhere. Brady believes in the system and culture Bill Belichick built in New England because it worked once for him before. Belichick is not available, nor would we recommend the Raiders hire him even if he were interested in an NFL return, but that won't stop Brady from embracing his Patriots disciples with open arms.
Matt Eberflus will coach his final game with the Cowboys on Sunday
Eberflus was set up for failure by the Cowboys when they traded star pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers prior to the start of the regular season. Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in yards allowed, and midseason trades for Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams haven't done nearly enough for the pass rush. When asked what went wrong for the defense in 2025, Eberflus highlighted what the Cowboys are lacking. It sounds a whole lot like Parsons.
"Obviously you have an All-Pro pass rusher that wins really quick [Parsons], that's certainly going to help any defense if it's Micah or if it's Myles [Garrett] or whoever that might be. But that impact player is always going to help to a certain degree in pass downs and other downs," Eberflus said Thursday. "Again, you can't look back right? It is what it is and then you just focus where you are."
Per Jordan Schultz, Eberflus is unlikely to be retained by the Cowboys after this season. Brian Schottenheimer and Cowboys ownership has their fall guy, fair or not. Eberflus remains a coveted assistant and should land on his feet somewhere, but this isn't the Cowboys gig he signed up for.
Which head coaches will actually be fired on Monday?
Like I mentioned in the intro, most of the head coaches on the hot seat have a good reason to keep their jobs. Unlike last season around this time, ownership is likely to listen to most of their coaches in part because there isn't an obvious shiny new toy to replace them with. That being said, not everyone can keep their job. That'd be silly, as there are far too many teams in need of new direction. So, which head coaches will be handed a pink slip on Monday? So far, two seem the most likely.
Kevin Stefanski
The Browns probably shouldn't fire two-time coach of the year Kevin Stefanski. He's not the one who traded for Deshaun Watson, or forced the coaching staff's hand and drafted Shedeur Sanders. Stefanski will find a new job in this next coaching cycle, even if it's as an offensive coordinator instead of a head coach. However, the Browns are also 7-26 in their past two seasons. Something has to change, and that usually starts with the head coach. Andrew Berry's rookie class saved him this time around, and he should be heavily involved in hiring Stefanski's replacement.
Pete Carroll
Pete Carroll's best days as an NFL head coach are behind him. The Raiders took a flyer on the oldest head coach in the NFL last offseason, hoping that a reunion with Geno Smith would lead to a career revival of sorts. It didn't work, and as a result the Raiders are worse off now than they were a year ago. Expect Vegas to eat the final two years of Carroll's contract, while Brady and the front office lead the Raiders search for a replacement.
Who's on the bubble?
Mike McDaniel, Raheem Morris and Jonathan Gannon could really go either way. The Titans and Giants have already fired their respective coaches and will be looking for a replacement starting Monday.
Latest intel on the coaches who stay and the coaches who go: pic.twitter.com/uG2evNVsBW
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 4, 2026
McDaniel is a respected offensive mind, and as a result the Dolphins are more likely to move on from Tua Tagovailoa and give their head coach his choice of quarterback heading into 2026. Morris, meanwhile, has won three straight games and perhaps saved himself from the fates of Stefanski and Carroll in Atlanta. And Gannon, despite a dreadful 2025 season, still has the support of Cardinals ownership. I don't make the rules, nor do I agree with all of the above decisions.