The New England Patriots are viewed by many as a fun story that won't have the happiest of endings. Sure, they'll make the playoffs and might win the AFC East, but how many people think this team, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, has what it takes to win the Super Bowl? It's easy to overlook them when they play in the same conference as superstar quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Well, if point differential is any indication, the Patriots are as legit as any team in the NFL. Point differential shouldn't be considered the be-all end-all, but winning games by wide margins suggests they aren't just getting lucky in one-score games and that they can compete with anybody in the league. With that, let's take a look at the NFL standings based on point differential and see which other teams are with the Patriots in the Super Bowl bubble.
NFL standings by point differential
AFC East
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | New England Patriots | +92 (4th) | 10-2 |
2 | Buffalo Bills | +59 (10th) | 7-4 |
3 | Miami Dolphins | -43 (23rd) | 4-7 |
4 | New York Jets | -72 (28th) | 2-9 |
The Buffalo Bills have Josh Allen, and that alone makes them formidable, but it's impossible to ignore the difference in point differential. The Patriots have more points for and fewer points against than their division rivals this season, and have even defeated Buffalo head-to-head. I understand those who'd pick the Bills to beat the Patriots in the playoffs because of Allen, but the Patriots sure look like the more complete team in every way right now.
AFC North
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Baltimore Ravens | +14 (14th) | 6-5 |
2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +11 (15th) | 6-5 |
3 | Cleveland Browns | -58 (25th) | 3-8 |
4 | Cincinnati Bengals | -112 (T-30th) | 3-8 |
The AFC North isn't nearly the division it was expected to be, but injuries have played a clear role. Joe Burrow's injury all but ended the Cincinnati Bengals' season as soon as it happened, and Lamar Jackson's injury has played a clear role in the Baltimore Ravens only having a +14 point differential.
That point differential would suggest they don't have what it takes to go on a meaningful playoff run, but the Ravens are on a five-game winning streak with three of those five wins coming by two or more possessions and four of those five wins coming with Jackson under center. The Ravens have held the opposition to under 20 points in six straight games as well. They're much scarier than their record and point differential would indicate.
AFC South
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Indianapolis Colts | +112 (2nd) | 8-3 |
2 | Houston Texans | +61 (T-8th) | 6-5 |
3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +17 (13th) | 7-4 |
4 | Tennessee Titans | -136 (32nd) | 1-10 |
The Indianapolis Colts are another team NFL fans are reluctant to buy into since they have Daniel Jones under center, but can they really be ignored anymore? They lead the NFL in points for and are within the top 10 in points against, allowing them to rank second in the sport in point differential. That's a really good team in every way, whether you want to admit it or not. It should not be surprising if they go on a deep playoff run.
AFC West
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +76 (6th) | 6-5 |
2 | Denver Broncos | +65 (7th) | 9-2 |
3 | Los Angeles Chargers | +8 (16th) | 7-4 |
4 | Las Vegas Raiders | -112 (T-30th) | 2-9 |
The Kansas City Chiefs are only 6-5 on the year, but they have the sixth-highest point differential, suggesting they're better than their record would indicate. The biggest reason why the Chiefs have struggled this season is that they've gone just 1-5 in one-score games. They'll obviously have to find a way to close the deal in close contests more than they have, but the fact that they're in these games suggests they've got a shot in the playoffs, particularly with Patrick Mahomes leading the way.
NFC East
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Philadelphia Eagles | +30 (11th) | 8-3 |
2 | Dallas Cowboys | +6 (17th) | 5-5-1 |
3 | Washington Commanders | -60 (26th) | 3-8 |
4 | New York Giants | -70 (27th) | 2-10 |
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFC North comfortably and are tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL, but their point differential would suggest they aren't quite as good as their record is. It's hard to bet against the reigning champs, especially when they've found ways to win, but unlike the Chiefs, they've thrived in one-score contests, going 7-2. Their inability to blow anybody out, even the bottom-feeders they've played, doesn't exactly suggest that they have what it takes to win in January and February. They just aren't explosive enough offensively.
NFC North
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Detroit Lions | +83 (5th) | 7-4 |
2 | Green Bay Packers | +61 (T-8th) | 7-3-1 |
3 | Chicago Bears | -3 (18th) | 8-3 |
4 | Minnesota Vikings | -31 (21st) | 4-7 |
Speaking of a potentially fraudulent team, it's really hard to take the Chicago Bears seriously as Super Bowl contenders. Ben Johnson is awesome, and his victory speeches have me ready to run through a brick wall every Sunday, but going 8-3 with a -3 point differential feels impossible. Sure, a lot of that has to do with the 52-21 drubbing they took in Week 2, but the Bears have gone 6-1 in one-score games. Johnson and Caleb Williams deserve credit for finding ways to pull out wins in the fourth quarter of close games, but that can't continue to happen weekly, right?
NFC South
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -25 (19th) | 6-5 |
2 | Atlanta Falcons | -30 (20th) | 4-7 |
3 | Carolina Panthers | -53 (24th) | 6-6 |
4 | New Orleans Saints | -109 (29th) | 2-9 |
The NFC South is, pretty clearly, the worst division in football. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were finding ways to win close games early on, but they've dealt with injuries and have lost three of four, two of which have come by 15+ points. The Carolina Panthers have been a fun story, but their point differential and struggles against quality competition make it hard to fully buy in.
NFC West
Rank | Team | Point Differential (NFL Rank) | Current Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Rams | +127 (1st) | 9-2 |
2 | Seattle Seahawks | +107 (3rd) | 8-3 |
3 | San Francisco 49ers | +20 (12th) | 8-4 |
4 | Arizona Cardinals | -35 (22nd) | 3-8 |
The Los Angeles Rams look every bit like Super Bowl contenders, if they aren't the outright favorites. Not only do they have the dominant duo of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay, but they've won six games by double figures and three games by 20+ points. Two of those three wins have come against teams with winning records. The Seattle Seahawks played the Rams tough earlier this season and are a very good team that should not be overlooked, but this feels like the Rams' division and conference to lose right now.