In a given season, only about eight or so teams have a real shot at winning a Super Bowl. On the other side of the coin, three-quarters of the league at least have somewhat of a chance at getting to one, assuming everything goes according to plan. We will have all offseason to pontificate as to who will separate from the rest of the pack into being serious contenders, but what could hold them all back?
That is in line with what I want to do today. With the help of ESPN's Football Power Index, I took the 12 teams with the best percentage chances of making the Super Bowl this year and tried to find their fatal flaw. Right now, the Kansas City Chiefs have the best chance to make the Super Bowl at 18.3 percent. The 12th most likely team to make it there is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at only 6.9 percent.
Yes, there are teams with better odds that the Buccaneers, but worse than the Chiefs that will surely disappoint. Of course, they may be a few teams with worse odds than Tampa Bay who could conceivably crash the party, or be on the brink of doing so. Right now, it is all about looking at the data and trying to figure out when, where and why these contending teams may end up coming short.
We will work our way down alphabetically among the contenders, starting with my preseason favorite.
- Baltimore Ravens (17.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Buffalo Bills (18.2 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7.7 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Detroit Lions (14.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Green Bay Packers (7.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Kansas City Chiefs (18.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Los Angeles Rams (10.2 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Philadelphia Eagles (18.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- San Francisco 49ers (7.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
- Washington Commanders (9.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Baltimore Ravens (17.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Lamar Jackson
In a way, I think it is about time for this longstanding red flag to finally turn green. We know how great of a player Lamar Jackson is, but for whatever reason, he cannot be trusted in the postseason. While I do have my concerns about head coach John Harbaugh to some degree, he did when a Super Bowl that one time with Joe Flacco back when I was in college. Will it be the year of the Baltimore Ravens?
Well, Jackson is still playing at an elite level. For my money, the Ravens might have the best secondary in football. While I do not love their offense, Jackson can always make something happen, as he is the straw that stirs the drink there. All it takes is one postseason run in a semi-navigable bracket to make a Super Bowl dream a reality. I am tired of waiting on him, so I think it has to be time.
I will say this: Baltimore and Buffalo need to make it to a Super Bowl this year, or it is not happening.
Buffalo Bills (18.2 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Sean McDermott
I mentioned this a moment ago. I am of the belief that if it does not happen for the Baltimore Ravens or the Buffalo Bills this year with their respective cores, it is never going to happen. They can get back to the Super Bowl at some point down the line, but not with the way they are constructed. At least one of these teams will be an underachieving failure, possibly both. So why am I more down on Buffalo?
This has nothing to do with Josh Allen, but rather the head coach leading him. At some point, Sean McDermott needs to assert his dominance, or at least try to, in a critical postseason game of note. This team has too much talent to bow out this frequently in the playoffs. A coaching change might occur if this team loses in the AFC Divisional Round. Another early playoff loss is not acceptable.
Allen may be the reigning NFL MVP, but the way he plays does not guarantee him a long shelf life...
Cincinnati Bengals (7.7 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Mike Brown
I view the Cincinnati Bengals very much in the same vein as I do the San Francisco 49ers over in the AFC. These teams offer so much variance. If all goes according to plan, yes, they can get to and win a Super Bowl. However, we have seen it hit the fan for them far too often in recent seasons. For the Bengals, I keep going back to ownership. No matter how good they get, Mike Brown holds them back.
For as long as Joe Burrow is upright, the Bengals will always have a chance. While I loved that they were able to extend Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Trey Hendrickson offseason saga has been as off-putting as the first-round mess Cincinnati has on its hands with Shemar Stewart. The talent and coaching is there to hang with the best of them, but questionable ownership is their kryptonite.
The worst part in all this is I do not think it will get much better once Katie Blackburn takes over...
Detroit Lions (14.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Coaching Attrition
When I say the Detroit Lions may have missed their golden opportunity to win a Super Bowl, I am not joking. The Lions have been a fantastic team the last two years, but do not even have a George Halas Trophy to show for it. Dan Campbell may have gotten in his own head in the 2023 NFC Championship Game. Last year's playoff loss to Washington was unexpected. However, this was not unexpected...
It was only a matter of time before the Lions lost both of their star coordinators to other jobs. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn now runs the New York Jets, while former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is calling the shots for the division rival Chicago Bears. Campbell and most of his players remain, but how a CEO-type head coach reloads with his assistants is always a tricky test.
Detroit is still likely going to be a playoff team, but I am dubious about them making the Super Bowl.
Green Bay Packers (7.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Matt LaFleur
When I talk about teams with a wide degree of variance like the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers, I would argue a team like the Green Bay Packers gives off the vibes of the antithesis. Yes, I would be stunned if this team failed to qualify for the postseason. However, until I see something different out of head coach Matt LaFleur, they have an NFC Championship Game ceiling.
There are far worse places to be. Yes, the Packers have talent, but other, better teams have more. It is a consequence of the Packers being rather insular and not always being an active participant in free agency. The one way to overcome this is to have great head coaching or great quarterback play. I am not sure they have either. That being said, I do think that there is another gear to Jordan Love's game.
How I feel about Sean McDermott over in Buffalo is kind of how I feel about LaFleur with Green Bay.
Kansas City Chiefs (18.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Offensive Line
An easy answer would be the proverbial Super Bowl hangover. However, I think the Kansas City Chiefs are built differently. The AFC Championship Game has largely become the Arrowhead Invitational for a reason. They have Patrick Mahomes, and nobody else does. That being said, Kansas City needs to do a far better job of protecting their greatest asset. He cannot hold up vs. a vaunted pass-rush, y'all.
We have seen it happen twice now. In Super Bowl 55 during COVID, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pass-rush devoured him. This past season, the Chiefs' front-five was no match for what Vic Fangio and the Philadelphia Eagles were dialing up. While I loved the Trey Smith pick back in the day, they must extend him. Trading away Joe Thuney is fine, but the Josh Simmons draft pick scares me so much.
The only thing a makeshift offensive line will bring to Kansas City is more tears and no more titles.
Los Angeles Chargers (8.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Justin Herbert
I know I am in the minority on this, but I do not trust Justin Herbert at all. I understand that he is tasked with quarterbacking the Los Angeles Chargers, but every quarterback in his prototype is the exact same, man. Whether it is Matthew Stafford, Hebert, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles or Garrett Nussmeier coming down the pipeline, we are in awe of their physique, but are left wanting more.
Jim Harbaugh left coaching at Michigan to coach this guy. Yes, scandals were coming, but I get the idea of wanting to rally behind Herbert. In the last several years following his career, college and pro, I never got the sense that he was a true foxhole guy. He may prove me wrong soon, but I do not trust him in a critical spot when the season is on the line. Herbert always needs more talent around him.
We can keep praising him like he is an NFL superstar, but at some point, the guy has to produce!
Los Angeles Rams (10.2 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Les Snead
When teams are trying to tell you something, listen. I understand that the Los Angeles Rams were quite good a year ago. While they might be good again this year, they are either at or about to reach their expiration date when it comes to their overall competitive life cycle. Matthew Stafford is getting old. Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are gone. Sean McVay may get board. What about Les Snead?
Nobody cares less about the NFL Draft than the Rams under Snead's watch. Yes, they have may have found Puka Nacua a few years back, but even he said he does not plan on playing in the NFL for that long. In the end, I question if the Rams have the right people left in the building to operate with the crashing sense of urgency to contend for another championship. Their 2021 title was so long ago.
Their laissez-faire approach to everything is why the Super Bowl run was always going to be singular.
Philadelphia Eagles (18.3 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Complacency
I almost went with coaching attrition here, but I think the Philadelphia Eagles will be just fine with Kellen Moore and Doug Nussmeier going to take over the New Orleans Saints. While I would argue Philadelphia stands a far better chance of pulling off a Super Bowl repeat that the 2018 team, I do wonder how this Eagles' front-running culture of sorts combats the brutal battle with complacency.
Truth be told, I like the chances of getting back to the Super Bowl considerably more than I do the Chiefs. Yes, head coach Nick Sirianni has a tremendous pulse on his team, but this may have more to do with the upper crust of the AFC being tougher. The Eagles have built a reputation for not only drafting well, but being fantastic hunters. Well, they are the hunted now. That changes the paradigm.
I also think the NFC East will provide more than a few speed bumps along the way to slow them down.
San Francisco 49ers (7.5 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Brock Purdy
I hate to say it, but as soon as the San Francisco 49ers decided to pay Brock Purdy big money, their Super Bowl window started to close. Since his mega extension does not kick in fully until 2026, the 49ers just might be able to squeeze one out in the nick of time. Purdy is not their biggest problem, but will be their biggest scapegoat should he come up short. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan know this...
When they can fire on all cylinders, San Francisco can be one of the most impressive teams in football. They can be tough to beat. But when it goes bad, it goes bad fast... Lynch's drafts continue to be all over the place. While Shanahan is a great regular-season coach, he has a nasty habit of choking in the Super Bowl. Purdy did not ask to be here, but by taking all that money, he is left with no choice.
Between them and the Cincinnati Bengals, the 49ers might have the widest variance in all of football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Coaching Attrition
At some point, this is going to sink the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' rocking ship. It may already be taking on water, but they will not be going down without a fight just yet. It has been a revolving door at offensive coordinator in Tampa, but for good reason. Dave Canales enters year two leading the Carolina Panthers. Liam Coen took over the Jacksonville Jaguars last winter in a somewhat of a coup.
Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles remain, but what are the chances Josh Grizzard will be as good as his two offensive coordinator predecessors? He may be a promotion from within. That could be huge, but it might also put more on Mayfield's plate. Anytime Mayfield overstates his athleticism, he lets his team down. With Atlanta and Carolina on the come-up in the NFC South, now is not the time for that.
Jason Licht has long been the franchise's secret sauce, but does he have the right chefs in place?
Washington Commanders (9.9 percentage chance to make the Super Bowl)
Red Flag: Dan Quinn
For as exciting as the Washington Commanders were last season, this has to be in the back of everyone's heads. They are led by the architect of 28-3 in former Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. Kyle Shanahan may have mailed it in in the worst way possible in Super Bowl 51, but Quinn did let it happen. Maybe he learned from his mistakes? All I know is Washington has to be expecting this.
Although Quinn was on a Super Bowl-winning staff in Seattle, that was over a decade ago, and he has been part of two absolutely brutal Super Bowl losses since. For whatever reason, his teams just do not want to run the football when everybody and their brother is telling them to. Again, Washington may be different for him, but it is impossible to eradicate those painful memories from one's mind.
Washington may have just enough talent to get to a Super Bowl, but are they mature enough for it?