At 6-6 in a very competitive AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs look destined to miss the postseason, ending a long run of AFC Championship Game appearances for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are far from a bad team, but bad luck in one-score games has put them on the precipice of missing out on postseason play.
But there are other teams outside of the playoff picture at the moment who have a good shot to get back into it, depending on how the next few weeks go, including two teams in the AFC who are peaking at the right time. Here are the three teams that are currently not in the playoff field, but that will make their way there by the end of the season.
Houston Texans
Houston has seemingly fixed the offensive line woes that have plagued the team all year, going from "absolutely awful" to "serviceable, verging on maybe even being low-key good" thanks to the play of Ed Ingram and Trent Brown on the right side. The team just won three in a row with backup quarterback Davis Mills under center and now gets starter C.J. Stroud back at the perfect moment.
Houston is on the road against the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts this weekend, but Colts quarterback Daniel Jones will be attempting to play with a fractured fibula. Considering Houston has two of the top-five players in sacks, this one could get ugly.
Then look at the schedule beyond this game: The Chiefs don't look nearly as scary as usual, then you get easily winnable home games against Arizona and Vegas before the one really tough one, a road meeting with the Chargers. The team then concludes the year at home against the Colts.
Baltimore Ravens
Does anyone seriously believe that this Pittsburgh Steelers team is capable of fending off the Baltimore Ravens?
Baltimore dug an early hole with Lamar Jackson's injury, but Jackson is back and the Ravens could be tied with Pittsburgh if the Steelers lose at home on Sunday to the Bills.
Yes, the Thanksgiving loss to the Bengals stalled out some important momentum for Baltimore, but it's survivable, especially when the Ravens still have to play the Steelers twice. The AFC North is having a weird year, but someone has to win it. Pittsburgh has the advantage of having games against the Dolphins and Browns still to play, but none of that (probably) matters if the Ravens sweep them.
The bigger question is if a Ravens team that sneaks into the postseason can make a viable title run. The top of the AFC is filled with surprising names this season, and a Jackson-led team will have an experience edge, especially if there's no Kansas City in the way.
Dallas Cowboys
That pesky "6-5-1" record is an issue for the Cowboys, but it shouldn't matter in the end when the team wins out. Dallas has mostly fixed the defensive woes that plagued the team before the trade deadline, allowing the offense to shine in back-to-back wins against the Eagles and Chiefs.
The Dallas schedule is set up very well. Up next is a meeting with the Lions, who've struggled lately, then three of the last four are against teams that are out of playoff contention. The only game to really worry about is the Dec. 21 meeting with the Chargers, but Dallas hosts that one.
So, why this confidence in Dallas? Because trading for Quinnen Williams and getting DeMarvion Overshown back from injury has turned one of the league's worst units into something you can win with, and that means that the league's highest-scoring offense doesn't have the same level of pressure on it. Dak Prescott can just go out there and have fun playing football with arguably the best one-two punch in the league at the moment at wide receiver without the pressure of, like, knowing that a single non-scoring drive could spell the end for the team's chance of winning the game.