To quote a certain superhero: We're in the endgame now. The first playoff spots were clinched in Week 15, and at this point in the year, just about every result has the ability to swing a playoff race. That's especially true this season, when darn near every division (with apologies to the NFC East) could go either way with three games remaining. And that's not even touching on the Wild Card picture in both conferences, which can give you a headache if you look at it too long.
Luckily, we've done that work so you don't have to. Let's gaze into our crystal ball, making predictions for each of the final three weeks in order to determine which teams will come out on top in all of the playoff races still up for grabs.
AFC East: New England Patriots
Despite their gut-punch loss at home to Buffalo in Week 15, the Patriots remain one game up on the Bills in the AFC East — and, even better, they're one game up in the loss column when it comes to divisional record as well, an all-important tiebreaker after splitting the head-to-head series.
I think New England makes it two losses in a row in Baltimore in Week 16, sending an entire region into panic mode as the Bills in Cleveland to pull even at 11-4. But divisional record ultimately proves decisive: Although Buffalo wins its final two games (at home against a Philly team that should have already sewn up the NFC East and the Jets), the Pats do as well, beating the Jets and Dolphins to secure the tiebreaker with a mark of 5-1 in the AFC East. Maybe if Miami had put up a better showing in Pittsburgh on Monday night, I'd have more faith in them as a spoiler, but as it stands the Patriots seem to have the inside track here unless they really screw the pooch.
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
I have the Steelers losing in Detroit this weekend while Baltimore upsets the Patriots, bringing the North race into a temporary tie at 8-7. But the Ravens immediately give that game back with a trip to Green Bay, while the Steelers handle business in Cleveland. All of which sets up one heck of a season finale, with Baltmiore traveling to Pittsburgh in Week 18. Even better? In this scenario, Baltimore would hold the better record in common games (8-4 vs. 7-5), meaning that if they won and evened the season series, they would claim the division with both teams at 9-8.
Unfortunately, I don't trust Lamar Jackson and Co. to get it done. They've just been too inconsistent of late, and I think home-field advantage gives the Steelers the edge in an old-school slugfest.
AFC South: Houston Texans
Another division that could well come down to the common-game tiebreaker. If Jacksonville finally cools off with a difficult trip to Denver next weekend, that could create the opening that the red-hot Texans need: I have Houston winning out (vs. the Raiders, at the Chargers and vs. the Colts) while the Jags go 2-1 in order to finish tied at the top at 12-5.
Because these teams split the season series and would both be 5-1 in the division in this scenario, we go to common games. Except, well, they would still be tied, with 9-3 records against common opponents. The next tiebreaker? Conference record, and here we finally get separation: If Houston wins out, its 10-2 record against AFC teams would be one game better than Jacksonville's 9-3 mark.
AFC West: Denver Broncos
Denver (12-2) is currently two games up on the Chargers (10-4) in the division, meaning all Bo Nix and Co. need is two wins in their final three games to clinch no matter what Los Angeles does. I think they get it done: Their defense should stand tall at home against a Jags team due for a loss, and then they get to go to Arrowhead to face a Chiefs team reeling after the season-ending injury to Patrick Mahomes and without any playoff hopes to play for. The Broncos get to 14-2 and seal the division before the Chargers come to Mile High in Week 18.
Projected AFC playoff bracket
1. Denver Broncos (14-3, AFC West champs)
2. New England Patriots (13-4, AFC East champs)
3. Houston Texans (12-5, AFC South champs)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, AFC North champs)
5. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
6. Jacksonvile Jaguars (12-5)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
It's tough to know whether Philly righted the ship in Week 15 or whether they just got to play the Raiders. Either way, though, the NFC East is all but wrapped up: Because the best the Cowboys can finish is 9-7-1, all the 9-6 Birds need is one more win in their final three games in order to wrap up another division title. With two games remaining against the lowly Commanders, that shouldn't be a problem.
NFC North: Chicago Bears
The Lions all but took themselves out of the NFC North race with a loss in L.A. over the weekend, making this a two-team fight to the finish between the Bears (10-4) and Packers (9-5-1). All of which means that Green Bay's trip to Soldier Field this coming Sunday is a must-see affair, especially considering that the Packers already own one win over Chicago and could make it a sweep with another.
I have a hard time seeing it though, not on the road a week after losing Micah Parsons to a season-ending ACL tear (and potentially No. 1 wideout Christian Watson as well). Chicago's running game does enough to earn the win, and that proves decisive in this divisional race: While the Bears fall at San Francisco in Week 17, they come back home to face the Lions to close out the year, and Jared Goff once again struggles in cold weather.
All of which leaves the Bears at 12-5, and while their poor divisional record could leave them vulnerable in a tiebreaker scenario, the best Green Bay can do is finish at 11-5-1 with two wins over Baltimore and Minnesota.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa's slow-motion collapse has dropped them into a tie with Carolina at 7-7, and I think they lose in Charlotte this weekend to fall a full game back of the Panthers with just two to play. From there, though, the schedule really helps out the Bucs: Carolina gets a very losable game at home against Seattle in Week 17, meaning that we could get Round 2 between these teams in Tampa to end the year with both of them locked at 8-8.
Ultimately, I think this division comes down to Week 18, and Baker Mayfield and this passing game (now finally approaching full health) do just enough to outlast the Panthers. I just can't quite trust Bryce Young yet in a game like this, no matter how much I like Dave Canales and Tetairoa McMillan.
NFC West: Los Angeles Rams
I'm going to swerve a bit here. Yes, the Rams are white-hot right now, but Seattle's defense under Mike Macdonald has always given Sean McVay fits, and I think the Seahawks manage to eke out a home win over L.A. in Week 16. They also beat Carolina in Week 17, meaning we'll go to the season's final weekend with Seattle at 13-3 and both the Rams and Niners at 12-4.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks, they lose in San Francisco to end the year, while L.A. finishes strong at home against Arizona. With a three-way tie at 13-4, Seattle falls to third thanks to an inferior division record, while the Rams nip the Niners for the division title thanks to a better record in common games.
Projected NFC playoff bracket
1. Los Angeles Rams (13-4, NFC West champs)
2. Chicago Bears (12-5, NFC North champs)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6, NFC East champs)
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-8, NFC South champs)
5. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
6. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5-1)