After an 0-3 start to the season, the Houston Texans have rebounded in a big way, winning their past eight games and clinching a playoff berth after Saturday's win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. At the moment, Houston is the No. 5 seed in the playoffs and would face the AFC North champion. That could be good news for Houston, but it could also be a complete disaster. More on why that's the case below, but suffice it to say, one AFC North champion would be an ideal matchup for Houston and the other would be a nightmare.
Let's rank the seven potential AFC playoff teams — the five others who are locked in and both potential AFC North winners — from who Houston would most want to face, to who the Texans would least want to face during the postseason.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Texans are huge, huge Steelers fans right now.
Pittsburgh has had some good moments this season, but the team is 1-5 against current playoff teams, and the lone win was against New England in Week 3, before the Patriots really figured things out.
Aaron Rodgers has largely played well, but the 42-year-old quarterback would be a sitting duck against this Texans pass rush. Rodgers also hasn't won a playoff game since 2020.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Houston beat the Chargers on Saturday, scoring two long touchdowns in the first quarter and then riding its defense to the victory.
Does Houston need to play better offensively in a potential rematch? For sure — you can't rely on big plays like Houston did in Week 17, when the team got a 75-yard Stroud to Jayden Higgins score, followed soon after by a 43-yarder to Jaylin Noel. Still, this defense has pretty clearly figured out how to stop Justin Herbert, beating him twice since DeMeco Ryans took over as the head coach.
5. New England Patriots
Only ranking the current No. 2 seed in fifth? It's not meant as disrespect to New England, which has made massive strides this season. It's just that every other team on the AFC side has a quarterback with playoff experience. Drake Maye might be the MVP based on how he's played, but he's also never faced the pressure of a playoff game.
I also think the Houston defense will have no trouble shutting down Maye's receivers. Stefon Diggs has been inconsistent all season, and no one else is going to strike fear into this secondary. New England's defense could definitely slow down Houston, but Houston's defense can slow down New England even more.
4. Buffalo Bills
Normally, I'd think Houston would be scared of the Bills, but something feels off about this Buffalo team this season. Josh Allen's lack of weapons is going to make it tough to win against a secondary with this much talent.
We saw that play out back in Week 12 as Houston defeated Buffalo 23-19, picking Allen off twice. The team made a few bad moves that let Khalil Shakir have a big game, but the rest of the team's pass-catchers struggled.
Of course, Allen is still (probably) the best quarterback in the entire postseason field, so that's worth remembering. Houston has the advantage, but Allen could easily just explode and pick apart one of the NFL's top defenses.
3. Denver Broncos
Houston's most recent loss? An 18-15 Week 9 loss to the Broncos. The defense showed it could slow down Bo Nix, but the offense just never got any traction.
It's worth noting that that was the game where Stroud went down and Houston was forced to put Davis Mills in the game. Mills played very well in his three starts, but his relief work against Denver was not very good. Luckily for Houston, it won't have to play Mills in this one, but the Broncos defense showed it could get to Stroud, sacking him twice before he exited the game. Houston can beat Denver, but would have to do so in a game that'd likely be very ugly.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston is 1-1 against the Jaguars this season, and it took a furious comeback attempt from Davis Mills to keep that from being 0-2. The 29 points allowed in the Week 10 victory are the most the Texans have given up to any team, and the 10 points Houston scored in the Week 3 loss are the second-fewest Houston has scored.
Facing a divisional rival that showed it might have figured out how to win against this elite defense is just not a team you want to face in the postseason. That's not to say Houston can't beat Jacksonville, but Jags head coach Liam Coen is one of the league's top young offensive minds and is one of the only coaches that this Houston defense should be scared of facing.
1. Baltimore Ravens
The Week 18 AFC North championship game between the Steelers and Ravens has major stakes, obviously, because the winner makes the playoffs and the loser is out, but the Texans might have more interest in that game than anyone else. Houston would love to play the Steelers, but would HATE to play Baltimore.
Yes, Houston has a win over the Ravens this season, but that 44-10 victory came with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback for Baltimore. Houston picked him off three times, while Stroud threw four touchdown passes.
The assumption for the playoffs would be that Lamar Jackson — who missed Week 17 with a back contusion — will be good to go for the postseason, and the Texans in this current era have really struggled against Jackson. The first three meetings between Houston and Baltimore since Ryans took over as the Texans head coach were blowout defeats for Houston: 25-9, 34-10 and 31-2 in last year's AFC Divisional Round.
Maybe these Ravens aren't playing at the same level as those Ravens, but Jackson has been Houston's Achilles heel in recent seasons and could doom the team to a first-round exit.