Every playoff game is "hard." There's no such thing as an easy ride come January; heck, we've seen a team win a playoff game with a record below .500 before. Even the worst division winner could get hot and beat the best Wild Card team.
Still, there are degrees of difficulty. Some matchups are harder than others, whether it be because of the familiarity of two opponents magnifying each other's faults, or because there's a certain quarterback lying in wait who could go on a heater at the right (or wrong) time.
Here's the worst possible first-round matchup for each team currently in the playoff field. If you're interested in the opposite — what the dream matchup is for the current playoff field — then check out this article from Chris Landers, detailing who each contender would love to play in the first round.
AFC
Denver Broncos
Worst matchup: Los Angeles Chargers
The good news for Denver is that I've been playing around with scenarios for a while, and finding one where the team ends up having to face Buffalo just doesn't seem like it will happen. (You know, barring late-season results like "Titans beating the Jaguars" and "Jets beating the Bills". We're trying to be a bit realistic here.) One thing we could get is a third Broncos-Chargers game, and in this scenario, it would come one week after L.A. goes to Denver and beats the Broncos. If momentum exists, Los Angeles would have it for that matchup.
New England Patriots
Worst matchup: Buffalo Bills
Is this Josh Allen's year? We'll have to wait and see on that, but with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow all out of the playoff picture, this is Allen's best shot at a title, and every other AFC team should be terrified of that. New England has already lost at home to the Bills, allowing a season-high 35 points a couple of weeks ago. Drake Maye has had a great season, but I'd trust Allen in a playoff matchup significantly more at this point.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Worst matchup: Los Angeles Chargers
This is revenge time. Yes, Jacksonville dominated the Chargers back in November to the tune of a 35-6 victory. Yes, the Jags held Justin Herbert to just 81 yards. However, the playoffs are a different beast, and the Chargers' defense is significantly better than it showed in that game. Los Angeles will be hungry to prove that loss was a fluke.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Worst matchup: Buffalo Bills
The Steelers are basically locked into the No. 4 seed, so the main thing they want is for the best Wild Card team from a talent perspective (Buffalo) to somehow not end up as the top Wild Card team in the standings. The Bills dominated the regular-season meeting, winning 26-7 despite an off game from Josh Allen, so ... yeah, this one might get ugly. It's hard to trust Aaron Rodgers in the postseason at this point in his career.
Los Angeles Chargers
Worst matchup: Houston Texans
We'll find out Saturday if this is really a bad matchup for Los Angeles, but Houston's defense has the juice to shut down Herbert on paper. Even if that doesn't prove to be true in Week 17, I'd still hate to face DeMeco Ryans' defense in the postseason. And hey — remember what happened last year when these teams met in the playoffs? Houston bowled over the Chargers, winning 32-12 and picking Herbert off four times.
Buffalo Bills
Worst matchup: New England Patriots
As mentioned above, New England won't want to face Buffalo, and likewise, Buffalo's not going to want to face New England. Yes, the Bills won the first matchup between these two teams, but only by three points. If there's a team that can "figure out" the Bills in the playoffs, it's one that's already faced them twice this season.
Houston Texans
Worst matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars
Familiarity breeds contempt, but it also breeds weirdness. If I'm the Texans, I'm not excited about playing the Liam Coen Jaguars a third time. Yes, Houston won the second meeting of these teams, but they did so while allowing 29 points to Jacksonville. Sure, there was a punt return touchdown in there, but that's still the most points Houston has given up to any opponent this season. It took a furious comeback attempt from Davis Mills for the Texans to avoid going 0-2 against their AFC South rivals. Houston would also be going on the road in this scenario, and this offense really struggled to produce on the road against the Jags earlier this season.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks
Worst matchup: Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle is in an interesting spot here where the team's basically either getting the No. 1 seed or dropping all the way down to No. 5. That's assuming they go 2-0 or 1-1 to end the year, but a Week 17 loss on the road to Carolina could drop Seattle all the way to the No. 6 seed. I don't think that disaster scenario happens, but if it does, it would mean that instead of facing the easiest division winner in the Wild Card round — either Carolina or Tampa — the Seahawks would instead likely end up taking on a team like Philadelphia. You probably don't want to go on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions in the first round.
Chicago Bears
Worst matchup: Green Bay Packers
The Bears have been one of the NFL's best stories this year, but they're 1-1 against Green Bay and needed an overtime miracle to get the lone win. The Packers' run defense can force Chicago to rely heavily on its passing game, and Caleb Williams lacks playoff experience, which could lead to a messy game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Worst matchup: Los Angeles Rams
The good news for Philadelphia is that this matchup probably won't happen. I did a lot of messing around on ESPN's Playoff Machine, and the situation here basically requires the Rams to drop to the seventh seed and the Eagles to rise up to the second seed. Still, it's possible, and it probably wouldn't be great for Philly, as Matthew Stafford is really the only quarterback in the NFC who should scare the Eagles.
Carolina Panthers
Worst matchup: Los Angeles Rams
This is basically the exact same situation as the Steelers in the AFC. As the worst division winner, you want to avoid taking on the best Wild Card team. It's not clear if that's Los Angeles or Philly, but the Panthers having to rematch with the Rams seems like a nightmare. Yes, Carolina won the regular-season meeting, but Sean McVay and Co. are going to bring all the knowledge from that loss into this one and put their effort into shutting down Tetairoa McMillan.
San Francisco 49ers
Worst matchup: Philadelphia Eagles
If there's a coach that I trust to game plan well against a division rival in the playoffs, it's Kyle Shanahan. The flipside of that is that the 49ers haven't seen this Eagles team yet this season, and San Francisco is currently 1-2 against non-NFC West playoff teams. That could change this week against the Bears, but ...I don't know, it's something that feels notable.
Los Angeles Rams
Worst matchup: Seattle Seahawks
The Rams defense has struggled against the pass, ranking 20th in yards allowed. Seattle put up 38 points in an overtime win when these teams last met, and that was with Rashid Shaheed having a very, very off game. Seattle's offense could feast against this Rams secondary.
Green Bay Packers
Worst matchup: Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay has scored in single digits just once all year. That came at home against the Eagles. In this scenario, the Packers head out on the road to face a team that held Jordan Love to 183 yards and no touchdowns in their most recent meeting. It just doesn't at all feel like a matchup that's in Green Bay's favor. It also doesn't help that the Packers have lost four in a row to the Eagles, including a 22-10 loss in last year's playoffs.