This is all about the riskiest moves of the offseason, not the biggest moves. Take the 49ers: They gave Mac Jones a two-year contract for $7 million not a big risk at all but a really, really good move nonetheless. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Ravens gave DeAndre Hopkins a one-year contract for $5 million. He’s done next to nothing on that offense, but it was also a very low-risk deal.
These, on the other hand are the moves that teams put some real juice into. The moves that teams made with some real investment … and a payoff that could’ve gone one way or another.
Investing in anyone is a crapshoot
We’re talking about risky business here, and when you’re talking about risky business in the 2025 NFL season, there’s only one broccoli-haired spot to start.
Hindenburg: McCarthy as QB1
The Vikings' 2025 offseason is going to hurt them for a while. They let Sam Darnold sign with the Seahawks after he had a really, really good season in 2024. That marked the beginning of the J.J. McCarthy era in Minnesota.
When they drafted McCarthy in the first round of the 2024 draft, it was a little controversial because he wasn’t in a remotely pass-heavy scheme in college at Michigan; he was wholly untested. Regardless, the Vikings went all in on him for the 2025 season with no real backup option… and now they’re paying for it. He’s missed a decent amount of games, and in most of the games he’s played, he’s been terrible.
This is a team that was ready to make some noise in the postseason, but now they’re at the bottom of the NFC North, and they’re aimless moving forward.
A blimp that’s not filled with hydrogen: Darnold in Seattle
This is the exact opposite of what’s going on in Minnesota, which is just as predictable as it is funny.
Did Darnold kind of drop a mondo in the team's lone playoff game last season? Yes. Has he laid a couple of mondos this season? Yes, but so has everyone. What we’re seeing out of Darnold is a whole lot closer to what he looked like in Minnesota rather than what he looked like in New York, or Carolina, or his little stint in San Francisco.
That’s the gamble that the Seahawks made when they signed him to a $100 million contract. It’s working out really, really well. If/when the Seahawks get to the playoffs, this whole thing is going to be judged on whether or not he chokes away his second-ever postseason game. Which he certainly won’t do again ... right?
Flying high, might be Icarus: Pickens in Dallas
In May, the Cowboys traded a 2026 third-round and 2027 fifth-round pick to the Steelers for George Pickens and a 2027 sixth-round pick. A third-rounder may not seem like much when teams like the Colts are throwing around first-round picks like Monopoly money, but a third is still a big investment — especially for a guy like Pickens, who is just as liable to be a top-15 wide receiver as he is to have 15 personal fouls called on him in one game.
Dallas has gotten the good version of that bargain (for now), and it’s shown up exactly when they needed it. CeeDee Lamb missed five games near the beginning of the season, and Pickens slid right on into that WR1 role. If it weren’t for Pickens, the Cowboys would have been throwing out Ryan Flournoy as that guy.
On top of that, the idea that he would take attention off of Lamb when they’re both on the field has worked out really well. He’s looked bought in on the offense more than he ever did when he was in Pittsburgh ... until Week 14, that is, when he looked like a completely different player. Of all the risks that have paid off so far this season, he’s the one who has the highest chance of looking like a stinker by the time we get to January.
We watched you set yourself on fire: Falcons during the draft
One thing that I’m looking forward to in 15 years' time is the tell-all story about the Falcons front office and the unbelievable amount of dissolution they have. Yes, they just beat the Buccaneers on Thursday night, but they still have a 5-9 record and have already been eliminated from playoff contention. That’s a problem, because they thought they were ready to do some big-time winning this season — and acted like it in the spring.
During this year's draft, they used their first-round pick (No. 15 overall) to grab edge rusher Jalon Walker. Then, they traded back into the first round to draft another edge rusher in James Pearce Jr. at No. 26. It cost them their 2025 third- and fifth-round picks, and also their 2026 first-round pick.
Once this week is over, that first-round pick is going to land somewhere around No. 10 overall. Their last three games are against the Cardinals, the Rams and the Saints. It wouldn’t be crazy if by the end of the season, it’s a top-10 pick. Oh, and the Rams own it, so if you wanted to spin this whole thing and argue that the Rams made a big risk which is paying off big time, that’d also work. Six of one, half dozen of the other.
Tough break on that one: Slater getting PAID
One of the best things about playing Blackjack is that you find out if you won or lost immediately. The Chargers played their own game of Blackjack this offseason, when they signed left tackle Rashawn Slater to a four-year deal worth $115 million. That was on July 27th. On August 7th, he tore his Patellar tendon, which took him out for the entire season. That’s rough.
Since then, everything that could go wrong for the Chargers O-line has gone wrong. Mekhi Becton (who they also paid a decent amount of money in the offseason) hasn’t been the same player that he was in Philadelphia, and Joe Alt got hurt a couple of times and ended up on the IR.
You’re hard-pressed to find a worse offensive line in the NFL. Right now, Herbert is the second-most pressured quarterback this season with a pressure rate of 43.9% (Justin Fields was at 46.5%). It stinks for them because they had the right process with what they did; it’s just that the outcome was just about as awful as possible.
New GM played with matches in a gas factory: The Commanders
Who would’ve thought that trading away your future for old players, and then signing and re-signing more old players, was a bad idea?
The Commanders didn’t make one massive bet on a single player that sunk them; they made 14 medium-to-big bets and lost on at least 12 of them.
Early in the offseason, they traded away their 2025 third- and seventh-round picks, plus their 2026 second- and fourth-round picks, for 31-year-old Laremy Tunsil and a fourth-round pick. Then they traded a fifth-round pick for 29-year-old Deebo Samuel. They also gave 30-year-old Terry McLaurin a three-year extension for $96 million.
Tunsil has been fine, Samuel has been a disappointment and McLaurin has only played in six games because he’s been dealing with injuries. And that’s just three of the 14 old guys. It’s been bad over there, and they have a very deserved 3-10 record while Jayden Daniels looks around wondering what happened.
Confidently swallowed fire without practicing: Pete Carroll and Geno Smith in Las Vegas
Remember in the preseason, when all the talking heads said Pete Carroll was going to turn around the Raiders? Remember how Geno Smith was going to be the dude to bring them to the (relative) promised land? Remember how they drafted Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick despite not having a viable offensive line? Remember when they paid Maxx Crosby to make him the cornerstone of their franchise?
Now they’re 2-10 and battling for the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. Just about nothing has gone right for them. Hell, remember that Monday night game in Week 2 when Tom Brady was in the Raiders coaches box? We don’t care about that anymore; we don’t care about a potential cheating/competitive advantage scandal because the Raiders are such a terrible football team. That is how much the Raiders' offseason moves have flamed out.