The worst NFL Draft busts Mel Kiper Jr. has endorsed in the last decade

The NFL Draft is the most important part of the NFL offseason. And in itself, it’s got some pretty high drama. You’ve got a bunch of 20-ish-year-olds realizing their dreams, getting paid disgusting amounts (or losing disgusting amounts) of money, and the future of NFL teams getting decided. 

It’s a massive industry, as is draft analysis. Mel Kiper Jr. is arguably the most historically prolific draft analyst, and there was a stretch of time where he was good at his job. That pretty much ended in 2010, when he said that he’d retire if Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a successful quarterback in the NFL. Clausen objectively wasn’t, and Kiper welched on his bet.

He jumped the shark with that one, and lately it seems like getting his explicit endorsement means you’re in for a bad time… and this week, he disappointed Raiders fans by throwing his lack-of-weight behind Fernando Mendoza. So let’s do our part in holding people accountable by shaming them for their bad takes; let’s take a gander at some of the recent death knells that Kiper has rung prior to the draft. 

QB Shedeur Sanders (2025)

This isn’t your traditional draft prediction because the Browns just got seven starts out of Shedeur Sanders after drafting him in the fifth round… also, he was a Pro Bowler, and you’ll never be able to take that off of his page on Pro Football Reference. 

But given Kiper’s mental breakdown during the draft last season, you can’t leave Sanders off this list. 

A generational old man rant because he had a bad take. It’s respectable. It’s hateable. It’s Old Man Mel. 

QB Will Levis (2023)

You remember Will Levis, right? Puts mayonnaise in his coffee. Very handsome. Fell to the Titans in the second round of the draft, and then his girlfriend left him and it was really sad. That guy… 

Kiper had him ranked as a top-five pick (second-best quarterback going into the draft), and it was mostly because he didn’t care about Levis’s 43 interceptions from his two years at Kentucky. 

Well, as you would imagine, he came into the NFL, was very bad, and that was highlighted by his Hall-of-Fame caliber interceptions. 

It’s not just that Kiper gave Levis his endorsement, but also that he said he didn’t care about the part of the game that he really, really, really should’ve cared about. It’s special.

OT Evan Neal (2022)

There aren’t any really spicy clips of Kiper talking about Evan Neal, which makes sense because he’s an offensive lineman and those aren’t the guys who get Kiper paid. 

However, for eight months leading up to the 2022 draft, Kiper was very consistent on his grading of Evan Neal:

If you have the first overall pick in multiple fantasy leagues, you’ll pick different guys so you don’t have all of your eggs in one basket… and also because you’re a complete coward. Kiper’s a lot of things, but a coward is not one of them.

This is the kind of consistency that you love to see. You find your guy, you like your guy, you like him even more as time goes on, and then you never hedge your bet by saying there could be another person in your top-five prospects. 

As it would turn out, Kiper’s confidence was hilariously misplaced. The Giants drafted Evan Neal seventh overall. He stunk as a rookie, stunk in his second year, and then stunk in his third year. The plan last season was for him to move from tackle to guard, but he didn’t play any offensive snaps the entire season… So, yeah.

QB Josh Rosen (2018)

That 2018 draft class was loaded. It had Fred Warner, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson, Lamar Jackson, Denzel Ward, Baker Mayfield, Vita Vea, Minkah Fitzpatrick… It was dude after dude after dude.

It’s kind of unfair to compare some of the busts from that draft to those top-tier guys. Unfortunately for them, that’s what happens. And super unfortunately for Josh Rosen, the other first-round quarterbacks all ended up being pretty awesome in their own right. 

Going into the draft, Kiper had Rosen ranked as his third-best quarterback available behind Allen and Darnold, and before Jackson and Mayfield.

The crux of his endorsement was about how Rosen was going to be the most game-ready guy in that class.

So, of course, Sam Bradford started the first three games of the season. When it was Rosen’s time to take over in the fourth quarter of their Week 3 game against the Bears, he came onto the field to a standing ovation.

On his sixth pass attempt, he threw an interception… and then he followed that up by throwing another interception two attempts later. Luckily, that one was nullified because of a penalty, so it didn’t count. He ended up getting sacked to end the game, and the Bears won 16-14.

Maybe you’re thinking, ‘That was his first start, and it was in a tricky situation. You can’t blame a rookie for coming into a game in the fourth quarter and making bad decisions under pressure.’ That's fair, but it never did get any better. 

He ended the season with a 55.2% completion percentage, throwing for 2,278 yards, 11 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and he was sacked 45 times. 

If those numbers aren’t enough to disparage Kiper’s analysis of Rosen, there is one more that should be a nail in the coffin: Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was in the NFL for 17 seasons, and he had over 100 targets in 16 of those seasons. His 2018 season with Rosen was his least productive of those 16 seasons, with only 734 receiving yards.

That was Kiper's ready-to-play guy… The Cardinals drafted Kyler Murray the year after that.