The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to hire Klint Kubiak as their next head coach. The Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator will have to coach his current team in the Super Bowl before such news is made official, but reports indicate Kubiak intends to work out a deal with Vegas after next Sunday's big game. That's not good news for Geno Smith.
Smith was already on the outs with Vegas, as his first season with the Raiders went about as poorly as it could have. And before you ask, Kubiak doesn't have any real connection to Smith, as he was hired prior to last season and hasn't coach him previously. The Raiders have the No. 1 overall pick, which they'll likely use on Fernando Mendoza. For Geno's sake, hopefully Vegas will find him a new home where he'll have a chance to contend for the starting job.
What would it cost to acquire Geno Smith from the Raiders?
It's no secret that the Raiders will want to part ways with Smith. Bringing him in – along with the extension Smith received prior to last season – was Pete Carroll's idea. However, Smith was benched multiple times this season and the Raiders will likely opt to go in a different direction come April's draft in Pittsburgh. Mendoza, the hands-down No. 1 QB prospect in this year's class, has already been connected to Vegas. It'd be a shock if they didn't select him when the time comes.
Smith is set to receive $18.5 million next season, as the Raiders gave him a similar amount in a bonus upon signing. While that money was wasted, it's also good news for general manager John Spytek. Even mediocre starting quarterbacks tend to make upwards of $20 million in free agency. This makes Smith, who has plenty of starting experience and some believers in the NFL even after a dreadful campaign, cheaper than many of the options teams can sign in free agency.
Acquisition type | Dead Money | Cap hit |
|---|---|---|
Cut Pre-June 1 | $18.5 million | $8 million |
Cut Post-June 1 | $18.5 million | $8 million |
Trade Pre-June 1 | $0 | $26.5 million |
Trade Post-June 1 | $0 | $26.5 million |
Essentially, trading Smith is more expensive for the Raiders, but they'd more than make up for that by replacing him with a quarterback on a rookie contract. Assuming Vegas could recoup some draft capital (say a third-round pick) for Smith, that would be worth their while no matter when a trade occurs, though they'd rather rid themselves of Smith's deal sooner as to spend some of that money in free agency.
What a Falcons trade for Geno Smith would look like
Geno is by no means perfect, but with Kirk Cousins likely to leave this offseason, the Falcons will want to bring in a veteran who can compete with Michael Penix Jr. Also, the Falcons just hired Tanner Engstrand, formerly of the New York Jets, as their passing game coordinator. Engstrand doesn't have an extensive history with Smith, but at least the two have worked together before. Engstrand has played a role in developing quarterbacks who have, eventually, produced elsewhere in Smith and Sam Darnold. Perhaps he can help Smith revive his career for the second time in Atlanta.
As for the trade value, quarterbacks with this kind of starting experience don't come cheap. Smith has 98 starts to his name and has appeared in 108 games. Entering his age-36 season, he needs to be less casual with the football and turn the ball over less if he wishes to succeed well into his late-30's. A sixth-round selection in 2026 and a Day 2 pick in 2027 – considered a strong QB class by prognosticators – is a strong trade package the Raiders would gladly take. For the Falcons, adding Smith gives them a better quarterback room in Kevin Stefanski's first season in charge.
Can the Falcons unlock Geno Smith?
The Falcons may be the only team that can help Smith at this juncture. With familiarity in their back pocket and Stefanski calling the shots, Atlanta is desperate for consistent quarterback play. Whether that comes in the form of Penix Jr. – a first-round pick they took just after signing Kirk Cousins – or anoher veteran QB, it does not matter. When healthy, Penix Jr. has shown some flashes, but he's also turnover prone and, frankly, inconsistent.
Stefanski might be the offensive mind to fix that, or he can help Smith find his former self. In Seattle, Geno made the Jets look silly for dumping him in the first place, which is something Engstrand knows a thing or two about.
The Falcons have weapons at Smith's disposal in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, among others. There's little reason their offense should be floating around league average. Dependable QB play would go a long way in turning an 8-9 team into a postseason contender.