Nolan Arenado debacle is the ultimate rebuke of Dana Brown's tenure as Astros GM

When the Houston Astros offseason began following a Wild Card upset to the Detroit Tigers, it seemed like Dana Brown had a pretty straight-forward to-do list: Re-sign third baseman Alex Bregman, tweak the margins around a rock-solid core and once again contend for an AL West and World Series title. Instead, he's plunged what was one of the most consistent winners in baseball into an existential crisis.

Houston and Bregman got off on the wrong foot, the two sides reportedly very, very far apart on a potential contract. Then the Winter Meetings came and went without much of any upgrades to the roster. Suddenly, the focus had shifted from how to add talent to whether the team should cut bait with two of its best players, outfielder Kyle Tucker and pitcher Framber Valdez, rather than lose them for nothing in free agency next winter.

As if that weren't evidence enough that the Astros were losing their grip on contention in the American League, we got an even clearer indication on Wednesday. It turns out that the rest of the league has been paying attention to Brown's failures at the helm, and one player in particular is none too impressed.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work onThe Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Nolan Arenado trade debacle is the nadir of the Dana Brown era in Houston

On Wednesday afternoon, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand and John Denton reported that St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado had declined to waive his no-trade clause that would have sent him to Houston. While we've yet to get confirmation on exactly what went down, the fact that the All-Star's list of approved trade destinations was supposedly based on World Series contenders would seem to speak volumes.

It can't have been geography, considering that Arenado included both East Coast and West Coast teams on his list. It can't have been an AL thing, considering that the Red Sox and Angels made the cut. It sure seems like Arenado looked at the team's roster and Brown's recent moves and decided that the Astros simply weren't in position to compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Mets in 2025 and beyond.

And really, can you blame him? Brown took over a well-oiled machine ahead of the 2023 season, but all he's done since is make things worse, from an ALCS ouster that year to not even making it out of the Wild Card round in 2024. The farm system is in the bottom half of the league, there's a glaring hole at first base that refuses to be filled, and now two of the team's most reliable hitters in Bregman and Tucker are out the door without any significant replacements available.

Houston still has Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, they still have a solid starting rotation, and they got an infusion of young talent from the Tucker deal. More broadly, though, it's clear that they've taken a step back, and how would any player have faith that Brown is the man to reverse that trajectory?