It sure sounds like the odds are in the Mets favor to re-sign key free agent

It might only be early December, but the New York Mets might've already won the offseason. Fresh off an NLCS berth, the team won the Juan Soto sweepstakes, inking the superstar outfielder to a monstrous 15-year deal. Will it age well? Perhaps not, but the Mets signed the superstar before he has even reached his prime.

As enormous as signing Soto is, this can't be all that the Mets do. Their lineup, while very good at the top, still lacks enough length to seriously compete with a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their bullpen, like most teams this time of year, needs some work. Perhaps most importantly, though, their starting rotation is still an arm or two short.

Yes, Kodai Senga is healthy and should be ready to go for the 2025 season. Yes, the Mets signed Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes in free agency. Still, there's work to be done.

Is signing a high-end arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried a possibility? Perhaps, but how likely it is that the Mets will sign another player for nine figures and several years while also coughing up two more draft picks and international bonus money? Is trading for Garrett Crochet an option? Sure, but how likely is it that they'll outbid teams with better farm systems?

There's one free agent who makes too much sense for the Mets not to bring back - and it's a player they're extremely familiar with. Sean Manaea exceeded all expectations in his debut season with the Mets, and looks like a guy who'd fit in perfectly long-term. Fortunately, according to Andy Martino of SNY, bringing Manaea back is far from a long shot.

"I'm picking up on some increasing optimism that there may be a reunion with the Mets. Nothing is done or close that I understand, but, towards the end of the season my read on this was if you're the Mets, the position might be "We love Sean, we appreciate Sean, that market might outpace where we would go on a starting pitcher." The vibe I'm getting now is that they love him so much that they might be willing to stretch a little."

The vibe Martino has gotten suggests that Manaea went from a guy that the Mets would not want to bring back given his price to one that the team might be willing to spend a bit more than they're comfortable with to ensure that he's back.

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Sean Manaea makes too much sense for the Mets not to bring back

Martino did note that if Manaea were to get a five or six-year offer it'd be unlikely that the Mets match, and with how much starting pitchers have been getting paid it isn't impossible that Manaea gets that offer, but barring that, the odds certainly appear to be in New York's favor - which is awesome.

Manaea arrived in Queens with fairly low expectations, coming off a season that saw him post a 4.47 ERA and only make 10 starts in 37 appearances, but he was nothing short of excellent with the Mets. The southpaw posted a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts and 181.2 innings of work during the regular season, and once he switched up his arm angle, he posted a 3.09 ERA in 12 starts down the stretch. He was throwing the ball better than he ever had.

Manaea lacks the track record that free agents like Burnes and Fried have, but he certainly pitched like a frontline arm for New York down the stretch and even in three of his four postseason starts.

Getting Manaea, 32, back for three or four years wouldn't be the flashiest of moves by any means, but with how he pitched with the Mets, he certainly earned a large free agency contract. Given the unlikelihood that the Mets would acquire an established ace, Manaea might be the next-best thing. Even if the Mets do get an ace, Manaea should be back either way.