No one is surprised to see the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025 NBA Finals, who have been historically dominant all season. The same can't be said for the Indiana Pacers, who took the road less traveled to reach this point.
Regardless of how they got here, we got a taste of how the Thunder and Pacers matchup in their two regular-season showdowns. However, much has changed between the first meeting on Dec. 26, the second on Mar. 29 and now, respectively, for both sides. Notable contributors were missing from both lineups, and Indiana wasn't in its current form for one of them, though there are still some takeaways.
Context matters. It's important to keep this in mind as we break down some elements from Indiana and Oklahoma City's previous encounters this year below. But without further ado, let's dive into the meat and potatoes of the mentioned championship previews.
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What we learned from the Thunder and Pacers' regular-season meetings
It became quite clear that Pacers combo guard Andrew Nembhard, albeit a scrappy defender, doesn't bother Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The league MVP shot a combined 11-of-18 when guarded by his Canadian national teammate in Oklahoma City's pair of victories over Indy.
Nembhard's short wingspan and smaller frame are practically non-existent for Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA can use his long arms and strength to finish over and through Indiana's pesky perimeter defender. Nonetheless, the Pacers have multiple bodies they can throw at Oklahoma City's organizational centerpiece, namely 3-and-D wing Aaron Nesmith.
Nesmith wasn't available for the Pacers in their inaugural clash with the Thunder due to a left ankle sprain. But he's been trusted with the assignment of the opposing team's best players throughout Indiana's improbable postseason run and figures to get a crack at SGA. Yet, oddly enough, they barely put him up against the latter when given the chance.
42 seconds of Nesmith's 22-plus minutes of action in Oklahoma City's 132-111 drubbing of the Pacers in March were spent guarding SGA. In the small sample size, he limited the Thunder's offensive engine to 0-of-3 shooting. His point-of-attack intensity and length present more problems than Nembhard's traits. Given the results, expect to see more of this matchup.
Oklahoma City is 5-0 in the playoffs when shooting above 35 percent from downtown and 7-4 when they fail to reach that clip. As The Athletic's Esfandiar Baraheni points out, three of those losses came in the second round against the Denver Nuggets; why?
The Thunder won the turnover and long-distance efficiency battles over the Pacers in both games, but guess what they shot from three? 35.1 and 47.2 percent, respectively. There seems to be a theme developing here.
Denver made life difficult from 3-point land by deploying a zone defense and daring non-SGA Thunder players to make shots. The strategy proved to muck things up for Oklahoma City. But they cracked the code by the end of the series, as demonstrated by an emphatic 125-93 Game 7 rout. Perhaps the genie is out of the bottle, though the Nuggets showed the Pacers can and should at least consider a similar approach.
Moreover, Indiana is dead on arrival if OKC disrupts their flow and hot shooting on offense. Franchise floor general Tyrese Haliburton and Co. must continue scoring at a high level and taking care of the basketball while controlling the three-point line. The Thunder thrive on chaos, and the Pacers' system is predicated on "organized chaos," setting up a clash of conflicting styles.
While Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin were each sidelined for the Pacers in one of the two bouts, Oklahoma City was also shorthanded. Thunder ascending big man Chet Holmgren didn't appear in either game, and veteran stopper Alex Caruso sat out once.
Holmgren and Caruso are two integral pieces of the Thunder's rotation. Not only are they two of the team's premier defenders, but they're two of OKC's best shooters. Their spacing and two-way impact will be swing factors in pursuit of the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
Conversely, while the Pacers might not have an answer for Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have multiple for Haliburton, namely All-Defensive First Team swingman Luguentz Dort. Indiana's standout point guard struggled mightily versus Oklahoma City, and more specifically, the Quebec native.
Former San Antonio Spurs front office employee Kirk Goldsberry pointed out that two of Haliburton's bottom-10 performances in touches this season came against OKC. Dort was instrumental to that, holding him to his lowest usage rate among 19 defenders who guarded him at least 50 times in the halfcourt.
Haliburton's aggression declines significantly when Dort is lined up opposite him, and the numbers bear that out. The latter's physicality and sheer relentlessness are reasonably uninviting. Nevertheless, the former must power through if the Pacers want any shot at pulling off one of the most shocking upsets in NBA history.
Indiana was below .500 through the late part of December when Oklahoma City came to town. Haliburton and the Pacers didn't truly find their foot until the ball dropped and the calendar flipped to the new year. From Jan. 1 on, they were fourth in the Association in wins and sixth in net rating (seventh in offense and ninth in defense).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has been atop the Western Conference since Nov. 25 and hasn't looked back. They're a juggernaut, a Death Star, an unstoppable force, or whatever else you want to call them. This Thunder squad has been historically efficient on both ends of the floor, but truly boasts an all-time great stop unit.
The late-March Pacers-Thunder joust is probably more indicative of what's to come, but even that shouldn't be taken at face value. Be that as it may, an exciting best-of-seven round awaits.
Stats Courtesy of The Zach Lowe Show, The Athletic NBA Daily and NBA.com.