2024 EuroLeague Final Four Preview and Predictions

What a playoffs that was. Baskonia’s unsurprising sweep at the hands of Real Madrid aside, all three series went the full five games and two road teams finally won a Game 5 on the road, likely opening the door for more upsets of that nature in the future. 

With the 2024 EuroLeague Final Four set, here’s our review of the teams who are going home after the playoffs and a preview and prediction for the 2024 EuroLeague Final Four.  

What to make of Baskonia’s season?

We gave Baskonia a game in our prediction of their series versus Real Madrid and they ultimately came up short, blowing a fourth-quarter lead in Game 3. They responded to the sweep by missing out on the Liga ACB playoffs entirely, for the first time since 1995 (the person writing this was not alive then). 

Is making the EuroLeague playoffs impressive for a team that didn’t make the ACB playoffs? Or is missing the ACB playoffs a massive failure for a EuroLeague playoff team? It’s a little bit of both, more the latter, and representative of a season where a new coach came in, with a roster he didn’t build, and leaned into his team's dependence on their star: Markus Howard. Also, how does Howard not make an All-EuroLeague team? 

Expectations were low for this Baskonia side heading into the season, but Dusko Ivanovic has a summer to rebuild and Howard recently signed a contract extension and Tadas Sedekerskis did a few weeks back as well. Those are two solid building blocks. Chima Moneke seems like he might be on the way out, and the rest of the roster has varying degrees of uncertainty with rumors that a Nikos Rogkavopoulos and Ignas Brazdeikis swap with Olympiacos could be on the books. 

Baskonia should try to bring Codi Miller-McIntyre back, he’s a great backcourt partner for Howard. But clearing out the rest of the roster for a rebuild under Dusko would make sense. Baskonia should be open to bringing back some positive pieces like Matt Costello, Dani Diez, and others but finding pieces that elevate and support Howard should be the goal. A real rim-protecting big, a stretch big, and secondary off-the-dribble creators — Brazdeikis might be able to take that on — are key. And oh yeah, shooting, is always a necessity when Miller-McIntyre is your point guard. 

Missing the ACB playoffs is a failure, one that outweighs making the EuroLeague playoffs only to be swept by Real Madrid. But you have the best movement shooter and arguably the best scorer in EuroLeague coming back as well as a great young core piece in Sedekerskis. Get this summer right, and you could turn heads next season. 

Maccabi Tel Aviv put up a great fight. It’s hard to know what their future holds.  

This Maccabi Tel Aviv squad will go down as an all-time what-if team and season. What if their trajectory was not entirely altered by a global geopolitical conflict? 

With no home court, notable injuries to start their season, and the mental drain of playing home games in a country that isn’t your own Maccabi qualified for the playoffs and pushed Panathinaikos to the absolute limit. Chus Mateo was deserving of Coach of the Year, but so was Oded Kattash. 

This Maccabi team was good enough to be champions when healthy, that much is clear. And if they had their home court they may have finished as the two seed and avoided a matchup like Panathinaikos altogether. But that wasn’t the reality of this season. The reality of this season was far worse, and next season doesn’t project to be any better. 

Can Maccabi afford to keep this roster together with another season of no home games? Do the players want to stay even if they can? Maccabi’s fate does not rest on their shoulders. Their future is entirely out of their control. 

AS Monaco will not return to the EuroLeague Final Four

Monaco vs. Fenerbahce was a fantastic series. Two evenly matched teams with entirely different rosters. Fenerbahce fires away from three and often shoots their way to victory as a collective unit to cover up for their lack of perimeter creators. Monaco has a squad vaguely reminiscent of the 2001 Allen Iverson Sixers. Led by an unstoppable small guard, surrounded by a tough and physical crew that wears opponents down to let their star shine. But that crew couldn’t give James enough support on the offensive end and came up short. 

Monaco is rumored to be trying to get James to sign an extension. For as long as James is there, Monaco will be contenders. He was just named the 2023-24 EuroLeague MVP — well deserved — and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. James is still getting better in his early 30s and is capable of lifting almost any roster to contender status. 

But is that what he wants? Does Monaco have a plan to surround him with more support? They need real shooters alongside him and at least one true knockdown threat. Donatas Motiejunas had an awesome season for Monaco but with all due respect, that was more a troubling sign than anything else. It meant Kemba Walker, Jordan Loyd, Jaron Blossomgame, and Alpha Diallo were not contributing enough. 

Toughness is one attribute you need around James, but you need shooting too. Monaco needs to straighten that out this summer and extend James if they want to feel secure in their standing in this league. 

This was a good season for Barcelona and Roger Grimau

Losing in the playoffs sucks, doing it by becoming one of the first teams ever to lose a Game 5 at home sucks even more. That’s basketball though, and that sour ending shouldn’t cloud what was a solid season for Barcelona and particularly their rookie head coach, Roger Grimau. 

Barcelona returned to a limited budget - by their standards - this season after cutting ties with Sarunas Jasikevicius, Nikola Mirotic, and others. Their limited-budget pre-Jasikevicius era squads failed to make the playoffs and were generally, an embarrassment. They finished in the top-four this season and were one win away from the EuroLeague Final Four with a roster that didn’t make a ton of sense. 

They need to break up the Ricky Rubio, Tomas Satoransky, and Rokas Jokubaitis non-shooting point guard logjam and find a center that can solidify their back-line defense. Lean on Nicolas Laprovittola and Jabari Parker as a dynamic scoring duo and hopefully, moving on from one of the aforementioned point guards opens space for a two-way forward. It’s hard to say if that will be enough for the Final Four, but those were real gaps in that squad this season. Fill them in, and run the rest of it back. 

Predicting Real Madrid vs. Olympiacos

A rematch of last season's Final which Real Madrid stole at the death with some zone defense and a Sergio Llull game-winner, this could be an all-time great Final Four game. 

Real Madrid are one of the greatest EuroLeague teams we’ve ever seen. They're loaded with talent and capable of running up the score early and running away with the game itself, against anyone. But Olympiacos is healthy, giving basketball mastermind Georgios Bartzokas nearly unlimited options and tactics to throw at Los Blancos and match anything they bring to the table. Real should win this one, but it likely won’t be easy. 

The first focus for Olympiacos needs to be shutting down transition opportunities. Offensive rebounding should be abandoned almost entirely. Transition attacks are Real Madrid’s favorite way to ramp up their points and possessions. It helps them build early leads that they are more than capable of protecting as the game clock winds down. The next decision point is if Olympiacos sticks with their switching, and to what degree. Will they switch everything? Especially with Edy Tavares? 

Switching everything might be worth trying early on, particularly if you’ve shut down the transition game. Real Madrid is great in the halfcourt, but they occasionally get caught up in hero ball which switching can entice. Kostas Papanikolaou should start on Facundo Campazzo, and switch onto Tavares. Let Moustapha Fall show his adequate perimeter defending skills against the faster but also much smaller Campazzo, and see if Papanikolaou can contain Tavares just enough that it’s a notch below Real’s standard offensive output. That’s the goal here. You do not stop a team like Real Madrid, you simply try to drag them down to your level and see if you can make more shots at the end. 

Real Madrid needs to pursue transition opportunities, avoid hero ball, and primarily: shorten their rotation. Campazzo, Alberto Abalde, Mario Hezonja, Guerschon Yabusele, and Edy Tavares should be the starters with Dzanan Musa, Sergio Llull, and Vincent Poirier off the bench. If you need to try something different, go to Fabian Causeur. Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez — all due respect to their legacies and careers — should be afterthoughts. And if they come into the game, Olympiacos should attack them viciously. 

Real will win this game with their defense. You have more firepower than Olympiacos. When the Reds make the game ugly, embrace it. Go under on Thomas Walkup and do not help off of Isaiah Canaan and Alec Peters, especially early in the game. Olympiacos needs one of those guys to get going to put up the points they need. Cutting them off is a major key to success. Generally, run everyone off of the three, with the exception of Papanikolaou and Shaquille McKissic. Those two establishing offensive profiles against Barcelona in Games 4 and 5 were deciding factors. Make them the shooters and their teammates the slashers. Get them all out of their comfort zone and no matter how ugly it gets, you should come out on top. 

One last thing, for Olympiacos, can we please see Thomas Walkup try to go into a dribble handoff with someone when Real goes under and dares him to shoot? Sure, see if he has the shot first, that’s a fine phase one. But after that, a mix of handoffs and drives should be the move. Make Real’s defense work particularly on the perimeter. This is a point we’ve hit on them all season because it’s one of their only apparent weaknesses. Letting them hide it through one key player like Walkup is inexcusable. 

Predicting Panathinaikos vs. Fenerbahce

After two hard-fought five-game series, Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce will meet in the semifinal. This is Panathinaikos' first Final Four since 2012, and Fenerbahce’s first since 2019. Zeljko Obradovic led both these teams to their last Final Four appearance and now they are finally back under new leadership. 

This has the makings of a truly special semifinal. Panathinaikos is now the second team Ergin Ataman has resurrected in less than five years. He promised after a loss to Maccabi in the playoffs that if his team did not make the Final Four he would resign. Now, they are both still standing, and his longtime nemesis — having beaten and lost to Fenerbahce multiple times with the likes of Galatasaray, Besiktas, and Anadolu Efes — Fenerbahce is what stands in his way. 

Fenerbahce was resurrected this season as well, by Sarunas Jasikievicius who has now brought his third team to the Final Four as a coach and did it by taking over mid-season. He also played for both Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce as a player. These are two great teams, with two great coaches, duking it out on the biggest stage. 

The first test in this one will be how Fenerbahce guard Kendrick Nunn. The former Miami Heat point guard has blossomed from a solid EuroLeague starter into arguably the competition's best offensive player throughout the season. Calling him unguardable would not be an exaggeration, but Fenerbahce will have to find a way to slow him down. 

They will likely throw multiple coverages at him — hedging, drop, and even the occasional blitz. If you give Nunn the same coverage too many times he will eventually punish it. Blitzing gives up the short roll, where Fenerbahce struggles due to their personnel, but it could be something to lean on later in the game particularly if Nunn is having a strong performance. Get the ball out of his hands at least, see if you can figure out the rest afterward. 

Fenerbahce has size at almost every position, with the exception of Scottie Wilbekin. They need to use it to their advantage. The Turkish club has shied away from physicality too often this season. They cannot afford that here. Panathinaikos will hit them and they must hit back. They must also throw multiple big bodies at Nunn. Nick Calathes, Nigel Hayes-Davis, Dyshawn Pierre, and others. Dare the refs to give him a lot of calls, because they certainly can’t call everything. 

Regardless of the coverages he is facing, Nunn — as well as Kostas Sloukas and Jerian Grant — should look to reject screens as often as possible. This individual tactic was successful for Panathinaikos and Nunn in particular the last time these two teams met. Nunn is too quick. When he rejects the screen it makes the defense take a second to figure out how to adjust. By then, he’s getting to his spot and maybe even rising to score. 

That’s why blitzing could be serviceable for Fenerbahce. It could take away the rejection option entirely and force the Greens' role players to hit their shots. Ataman will probably start his standard Nunn, Grant, Marius Grigonis, Dinos Mitoglou, and Mathias Lessort lineup but don’t be surprised if Mitoglou gets yanked early and has his minutes slashed. Ataman has pursued small ball lineups more regularly throughout the season. Nunn, Sloukas, and Grant will form three guard lineups with Lessort playing center. The four spots will be taken by Grigonis, Juancho Hernangomez, or Panagiotis Kalaitzakis. Kalaitzakis proved himself capable in the Maccabi series. He reached another level as a role player, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ataman test that again. No matter how good the Greens stars are, others will have to contribute on offense to get them over the top. 

Fenerbahce’s offense will live and die with the three as it often does, but they can increase their chances of survival by generating better looks. With Fenerbahce’s lack of dynamic off-the-dribble scorers, Panathinaikos will play a lot of drop and stay-home on shooters. Just like Monaco did in the playoffs, they will dare Calathes to shoot and be a scorer. 

For the Calathes issue, they should look to have him generate dribble handoffs with Marko Guduric, Wilbekin, or Hayes-Davis. If Panathinaikos sinks multiple defenders into the paint you have to find ways to exploit the space they’ve left open with that. Dribble handoffs are one option. They could also set multiple screens for Calathes, making it harder to stay under and forcing some switches. Panathinaikos isn’t opposed to switches but the last time these teams met Hayes-Davis was able to bully Panathinaikos guards who got switched onto him and Jonathan Motley could do so as well. Pick and pops are an option too. Sertac Sanli and Georgios Papagiannis can stretch the floor from the center position. That shouldn’t be option one, but it should be an option. 

This game will likely be close, and Panathinaikos has better options in crunch time. But Monaco seemed poised for a similar path to triumph and came up short. Fenerbahce cannot be counted out, especially with their strength from beyond the arc. 

What is our EuroLeague Final Four prediction?

Predictions are tough, for one-off do-or-die games they are even tougher. Both these games should be close, but our picks are Real Madrid and Panathinaikos for the final with Real Madrid coming out on top. They’ll have an interesting summer afterward, with Hezonja and Tavares heading into free agency. And should they choose to leave, they’ll potentially be departing after one of the greatest EuroLeague seasons of all time.