2024 Paris Olympics Men's Basketball Preview and Predictions
Warm-up games have come to a close, and the 2024 Paris Olympics are nearly here. Men’s basketball will tip off this weekend. The tournament will open with a marquee matchup from Group A’s Group of Death between Australia and Spain. The day will close with a Group A matchup as well, between Canada and Greece. Those two games will sandwich Group B matchups between world champions Germany and Japan and hosts France taking on Brazil. Team USA will play their first game on Sunday at 8:15 am ET against Serbia.
The first games are the opening phase of group play. The 12 teams in the tournament are split into 3 four-team groups. Teams will play the others in their group once from July 27 - August 3.
The top two teams from each group - 6 total - as well as the two best-placed third-placed teams, will then advance to the quarterfinals draw. Teams cannot face a team from their original group, and the two most dominant group winners cannot face each other until the medal games. The quarterfinals will be played on August 6, the semifinals will be played on August 8, and the medal games will be played on August 10.
We are going to break down all these groups for you: the countries in them, their NBA and notable players, and the head coach. We will quickly summarize whether or not we think they’ll advance in the tournament.
We’ll make picks and predictions for each phase of play in the tournament and eventually predict the medalists. The United States is still the favorite to win this summer, but the field is wide open. Let’s get started.
Will Giannis Antetoukounmpo and Greece be able to advance from Group A, the group of death, at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Australia
Head Coach: Brian Goorjian
NBA Players: Dyson Daniels, Dante Exum, Josh Giddey, Josh Green, Joe Ingles, Jock Landale, Patty Mills, Duop Reath, and Houston Rockets offseason addition Jack McVeigh
Remaining Roster: Matthew Dellavedova, Nick Kay, and Will Magnay
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 2nd
Why or why not: With one of the most NBA-laden rosters at the Olympics, led by legendary Australian coach Brian Goorjian, and as a country that’s known for shining at the Olympics we expect Australia to be one of the two teams that prevail out of the group of death.
They’ve got talent and their biggest issue at last summer’s FIBA World Cup was lack of size, but the additions of Landale and Magnay - who is receiving interest from NBA teams - address that issue. Their biggest problem is half-court offense. This Boomers squad lacks a truly dynamic half-court creator that the likes of Team USA, Canada, and Serbia have at their disposal but this has been a problem for them at tournaments prior and somehow, Mills is always the solution.
His movement shooting and overall gravity opens up the floor just enough for the likes of Giddey, Exum, Daniels, and yes, even Dellavedova to be able to apply rim pressure and get defenses moving. A cold shooting day, which this squad is capable of with a primarily streaky group of shooters, will likely keep them from gold this summer but a hot shooting day could also give them enough to beat anyone.
On the defensive end, this group has plenty, so much so that Portland Trailblazers wing Mattise Thybulle didn’t make the roster. Exum, Daniels, and Green provide solid perimeter coverage, and they’ve got the rebounding to close out possessions. The Boomers will be a tough opponent for, well, everyone this summer. As long as they don’t have a cold shooting game early on they should prevail from this group and be a handful for whoever they draw in the quarterfinals.
Canada
Head Coach: Jordi Fernandez
NBA Players: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett, Khem Birch, Dillon Brooks, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trey Lyles, Jamal Murray, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Olynk, and Dwight Powell
Remaining Roster: Melvin Ejim
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 1st
Why or why not: This summer will be Canadian men’s basketball's first Olympics appearance since 2000, and they showed us at last summer’s FIBA World Cup that they mean business. They have the talent, and they are playing for gold. Led by All-NBA first teamer Gilgeous-Alexander, NBA champion Murray, the NBA’s supervillain Brooks, and new Brooklyn Nets head coach Jordi Fernandez this squad should be feared by everyone and easily poses the biggest threat to Team USA.
Now, what they have in talent they do lack in overall FIBA and international experience. That stuff is far from a huge concern but it does matter. At the 2023 FIBA World Cup Canada came up short against Serbia, who did not have Nikola Jokic or Vasilije Micic. We’re not saying we expect a similar outcome this summer but it is possible.
Canada will have to make a collective team effort on the backboards, expect that to be their biggest potential weakness. Powell and Olynyk will need to cover for a team that is essentially absent of true size and rebounding prowess elsewhere. Others on the squad rebound well for their position, but the FIBA game can be more physical and this squad could succumb to a bruising defeat where they get overmatched physically, like they surprisingly did against Brazil last summer. Canada is very good, they should be a real threat for the gold medal, but they’re not infallible and will need to be on their A-game all tournament long if they want to play for gold.
Greece
Head Coach: Vassilis Spanoulis
NBA Players: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Remaining Roster: Thomas Walkup, Nick Calathes, Georgios Papagiannis, Kostas Papanikolaou, Dinos Mitoglou, and Kostas Antetokounmpo
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 3rd
Why or why not? Greek basketball has largely been underwhelming during the Giannis Antetokounmpo era. This summer will be their first Olympics appearance since 2008. Head coach Vassilis Spanoulis was a player on that squad.
This team will go as far as Giannis can take them. The Greek freak is capable of lifting this group to victory against almost anyone, but he’ll still need help from their supporting cast. Greece qualified via the Olympic Qualifying tournaments played in early July and Spanoulis went with a starting unit of Walkup, Calathes, Papanikolaou, Giannis, and Papagiannis.
That five formed an impressive defensive base for them to build on. Calathes and Walkup are two guards who are elite defenders for their position, and capable of switching onto bigger opponents. Papanikolaou offers more of the same, Giannis is, well, Giannis, and Papagiannis helps provide size on the backboards. In their game against Luka Doncic’s Slovenia, there was not one player in this five-man group that Doncic could target. It completely shut down Slovenia’s offense and was truly the strongest a Giannis team has ever looked in international play.
The offense is another question. For the defensive fortitude created by Spanoulis’ optimal starting five, the offense is far from convincing. Calathes and Walkup are not shooting threats. They can make open threes, but not nearly enough to warrant a defenders full attention. Papanikolaou is slightly better and Papagiannis and backup big Mitoglou honestly have a claim for best shooters on the squad. The paint will be clogged for Giannis, he will see multiple defenders constantly, and be very dependent on his teammates providing some outlier shooting.
Greece’s path to maybe reaching the semifinals and thus, a medal game - which would be their ceiling this summer - will be to keep games as lowscoring as possible. Shut down the opponent's transition opportunities, with fouls, if you have to, and hope for some above-average spot-up shooting on the other end. If they can make that happen, maybe they play for bronze. But a quarterfinal exit seems most likely. That’s nothing to be ashamed of and would serve as a good foundation for the Spanoulis era.
Spain
Head Coach: Sergio Scariolo
NBA Players: Santi Aldama and Usman Garuba
Remaining Roster: Lorenzo Brown, Willy and Juancho Hernangomez, Sergio Llull, Dario Brizuela, Rudy Fernandez, Jaime Pradilla, and Alex Abrines
Do we expect them to advance? No - It’s complicated.
Why or why not? It’s hard to accurately assess this Spanish roster. It is far from the golden generation that featured the Gasol brothers in their prime, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio, prime Fernandez, La Bomba, and Sergio Rodriguez, and consistently posed the greatest challenge to Team USA.
They are now down to one NBA-rotation level player, naturalized EuroLeague star Brown, and a mix of overseas veterans and young talent. This squad is capable of playing at a higher level than what their overall talent sums up to. Their collective experience and veteran savviness can keep them competitive and with enough timely shotmaking they can go on a run. But having to qualify via the Qualifying tournament after an underwhelming showing at the 2023 FIBA World Cup was a clear sign that Spain is currently not among the elite. Being drawn into the group of death puts them on the outside looking in.
Don’t expect Spain to be like this for long. Aldama and Garuba are still young, Juan Nunez was a highly sought-after second-round prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft, and Real Madrid youngster Hugo Gonazlez is a projected top-5 pick in the loaded 2025 class. This Olympics will be a swan song for Fernandez, who is appearing in his record-setting sixth Olympics, and four years from now this squad will look very different, and likely much better.
How will Victor Wembanyama and hosts France fare in Group B at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Brazil
Head Coach: Aleksandar “Aco” Petrovic
NBA Players: Gui Santos
Remaining Roster: Marcelinho Huertas, Yago Dos Santos, Bruno Caboclo, Didi Louzada, Cristiano Felicio, Georginho De Paula, Lucas Dias, Vitor Benite, Alexey Borges, Elinho Corazza, and Leo Meindl
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 3rd
Why or why not? Aco Petrovic, the older brother of the late Drazen Petrovic, is back in charge of the Brazil men’s national team and while they don’t boast NBA rotation players such as Leandro Barbosa and Tiago Splitter like they used to, this squad can still be a thorn in everyone’s side.
With three elite pick-and-roll point guards in Dos Santos, Neto, and the 41-year-old former Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcelinho Huertas to pair with quality roll-men Caboclo or Felicio this Brazil squad can regularly generate decent looks in the half-court. De Paula, Benite, Louzada, and Dias provide solid spacing to make sure the court is open for those pick-and-roll sets. The players on this team are not among the world's elite but they are all skilled and do fit well together.
Defensively, they can struggle. Their point-of-attack defense is somewhere between abysmal and plain bad. The rim protection is what you would expect from offense-oriented bigs who ply their trade overseas. They’ll need to figure out how to get stops consistently if they want to make a run at punching above their weight, but competitive showings against France and Germany with a confident victory over Japan could be enough to get third place and the final quarterfinal spot. Their run ends there, but not before causing trouble for a few of the giants of the tournament as they always do.
France
Head Coach: Vincent Collet
NBA Players: Victor Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, Bilal Coulibaly, Nicolas Batum, and Evan Fournier.
Remaining Roster: Guerschon Yabusele, Nando De Colo. Mathias Lessort, Frank Ntilikina, Isaia Cordinier, Andrew Albicy, and Matthew Strazel
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 2nd
Why or why not? They’re the hosts, Wembanyama is making his Olympics debut, and he’s playing alongside Gobert to form the greatest interior defensive duo the Olympics have ever seen. France will be looking to compete for gold, but a disappointing summer may await them and Wembanyama.
France is stuck in a weird phase. Legends Tony Parker and Boris Diaw are long gone, De Colo and Fournier are aging and yet, they still need to carry the bulk of offensive creation. They’re not up to that against the world’s best anymore. On the defensive end, they’re turnstiles. Wemby may one day lead this squad to a gold medal - alongside Coulibaly, recent number one overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, and projected top pick in next year’s class Nolan Traore - but that’s down the road and right now, France’s roster just doesn’t fit that well.
It’s worth noting France’s performance at the 2023 FIBA World Cup was an embarrassment. They finished in the bottom half after only picking up a win against Lebanon in the group stage, falling short against Canada and Latvia. Wembanyama did not play, and he’s certainly a player who could completely change a team's fortunes, especially for a tournament like the Olympics but that feels unlikely this summer. A bad showing as the hosts this summer could serve as Les Bleus nadir, but also the springboard to make them Team USA’s biggest threat for the next decade.
Germany
Head Coach: Gordon Herbert
NBA Players: Franz and Mo Wagner, Dennis Schroder, and Daniel Theis
Remaining Roster: Maodo Lo, Andreas Obst, Isaac Bonga, Johannes Thiemann, Johannes Voigtmann, Niels Giffey, Oscar Da Silva, and Nick Weiler-Babb
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 1st
Why or why not? Germany has been rolling, and this group has great chemistry. Their combination of talent and togetherness led them to the gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. They are the reigning world champions and we expect them to bring that strong play to Paris this summer.
Schroder and Franz are a great offensive duo who play off each other well with different perimeter skills. Obst is an elite floor-spacer and their big rotation of Theis, Mo, Thiemann, and Voigtmann has the perfect blend of skill and dog to provide supplementary scoring and take over the bulk of the dirty work: screen-setting, rebounding, and other things that guys who regularly put the ball in the bucket aren’t always fond of. Bonga and Da Silva provide good length for perimeter defenders, and Lo and Weiler-Babb are quality guards off the bench even though more is expected from the former than the latter there.
Germany doesn’t have a headline star who jumps off the page like Canada, France, or Serbia but they should be feared equally or even more so than those groups. This squad plays for each other and their synergy is what gives them an edge. That means a lot in high-stakes international basketball.
Japan
Head Coach: Tom Hovasse
NBA Players: Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe
Remaining Roster: Keisei Tominaga, Josh Hawkinson, Yuki Togashi, Akira Jacobs, Yuki Kawamura, Makoto Hiejima, Kai Toews, Yudai Baba, Hugh Watanabe, Yoshii Hirotaka
Do we expect them to advance? No
Why or why not? There’s simply not enough talent here. Hachimura and Watanabe will be fun to watch as the leaders for this roster, and Tominaga who’s coming off an impressive senior season with Nebraska could have a big game but it’s hard to see a world where they have enough firepower to beat anyone in their group. Basketball is on the rise in Japan, and their domestic league’s recruitment of Yuta and German big-man Thiemann this summer is a sign of how much it’s growing, but it’s not translating to a competitive Olympic roster quite yet.
Will Team USA and Serbia dominate Group C at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Puerto Rico
Head Coach: Nelson Colon
NBA Players: Jose Alvarado
Remaining Roster: Arnaldo Toro, Ismael Romero, Chris Ortiz, Stevie Thompson, Tremont Waters, George Conditt IV, Isaiah Pineiro, Jordan Howard, Gian Clavell, Aleem Ford, Davon Reed
Do we expect them to advance? No - 4th
Why or why not? Puerto Rico can be scrappy and they’ve got a good dose of G League-level talent around Alvarado, but the logjam of significantly undersized guards that they’re dependent on for offense and creation simply doesn’t set them up to be a team that can compete at the level necessary at both ends of the floor.
They could beat South Sudan and steal third in this group, but their point differential against Serbia and Team USA will likely rule them out of one of the final quarterfinal places. We will get to enjoy watching Alvarado cook, which is a fun story for this summer of basketball.
Serbia
Head Coach: Svetislav Pesic
NBA Players: Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Vasilije Micic, and Aleksej Pokusevski
Remaining Roster: Marko Guduric, Ognjen Dobric, Aleksa Avramovic, Dejan Davidovac, Ognjen Jaramaz, Vladimir Lucic, Vanja Marinkovic, Nikola Milutinov, Filip Petrusev, Uros Plavsic, Dusan Ristic
Do we expect them to advance? Yes - 2nd
Why or why not? One of the biggest threats to Team USA, Serbia has enough to take down the United States in a one-off matchup but it would take an A-level game from them and a C-level game from Team USA. Serbia has a great mix of size and skill, but their perimeter defense is a true weakness. Micic and Bogdanovic are high-level guards but both can be targeted at the other end. The same can be said for Guduric.
That’s why an upset victory over Team USA will need a small dose of America beating themselves. Serbia can hang offensively with their starting group but can’t compete with Team USA’s bench, they’ll need that group to go cold to have a real chance.
With the best player in the world in Jokic and a microwave scorer like Bogdanovic, anything is possible, but this squad has a notable weakness that they won’t be able to overcome without some luck. Our final prediction is that Serbia won’t be playing in a medal game. We’ll explain that later.
South Sudan
Head Coach: Royal Ivey
NBA Players: JT Thor, maybe Bol Bol
Remaining Roster: Deng Acuoth, Deng Adel, Emmanuel Akot, Koch Bar, Sunday Dech, Majok Deng, Wenyen Gabriel, Mareng Gatkuoth, Peter Jok, Carlik Jones, Kuany Kuany, Bul Kuol, Junior Madut, Thon Maker, Makur Maker, Jackson Makoi, Khaman Maluach, Mangok Mathiang, Lat Mayen, Kouat Noi, Nuni Omot, Marial Shayok, and Aher Uguak.
Do we expect them to advance? No - 3rd
Why or why not? It’s hard to truly assess this South Sudan team. They are very much a case of building the plane while it’s flying, a task former Chicago Bull Luol Deng has undertaken with great pride and quite successfully as they’ve qualified for the Olympics for the first time in their country's short-lived history.
There are no real expectations for South Sudan this summer, being there is an achievement in itself. Anything else is a luxury. But their narrow one-point loss in a warm-up match against Team USA, which called on the Los Angeles Lakers forward to completely take the game over, was a flex and lesson for the world that this group does have elite talent and two-way athleticism.
Jones and Shayok bring the half-court creation necessary, and the addition of NBL wings like Majok Deng and Bul Kuol provides that two-way play alongside Hornets wing JT Thor. Gabriel provides interior presence. They don’t have a true superstar which is what will hold them back and likely eliminate them at the group stage, but there is enough here for them to sneak into third and maybe with that, into the quarterfinals. Regardless of how this summer ends, Luol Deng and Royal Ivey deserve a ton of credit for what they’ve accomplished here.
Team USA
Head Coach: Steve Kerr
NBA Players: LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Devin Booker, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis, Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White
Remaining Roster: None
Do we expect them to advance? Of course we do - 1st
Why or why not? Yes, this is arguably the greatest roster to ever grace the Olympics and Team USA should still be confidently favored to capture the gold medal this summer. Particularly with the addition of Joel Embiid, Team USA finally has an answer for anything and everything that may be thrown at them this summer. The days of needing someone like Javale McGee are long gone and now - they can win playing any style necessary.
Team USA’s biggest concern will be if their bench goes cold in a key game. As other countries have improved at basketball over the past few decades, many are capable of putting together starting fives that can hang with Team USA: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and Serbia can all stay competitive through a quarter and even a half of high-level hoops. But in the second half, where these teams need to lean on their bench of overseas pros against Team USA’s bench of All-Stars and All-NBA talent, that’s the difference maker. That’s where they can pull away and put a game to bed.
Should this group go cold, suffer injuries, or simply run into a shortened rotation that can come close to gutting out a full game against them then that is where we will see this group truly get tested. This Team USA squad does not have a weakness, but they could suffer from misfortune and spiral into their demise. That’s the doomsday scenario but as long as they avoid that, they should leave France with gold medals around their neck.
Who will be the winners and losers of the quarterfinals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
There will be a seeded draw for the quarterfinals, with the eight teams placed into four, two-team pots. Pot D will have the two best group winners. Pot E will have the worst group winner and highest-ranking second-place team. Pot F will have the other two second-placed teams, and Pot G will have the two third-placed group play teams who qualified. Based on our predictions, the pots would be assigned as follows:
Pot D: Team USA and Germany
Pot E: Canada and Serbia
Pot F: France and Australia
Pot G: Greece and Brazil
Our predicted matchups would then be Team USA vs. Brazil, Germany vs. Greece, Canada vs. France, and Serbia vs. Australia. Team USA is an easy pick over Brazil, and the best thing to watch for in that game is to see if LeBron and Huertas discuss their respective ages at all. Germany should prevail over Greece with relative comfort. Relative means that beating Giannis is never comfortable, but the Germans have a better squad and have proven themselves to be a top FIBA team and should be respected as such.
The hosts likely fall here, at the hands of Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada. Canada rocked France at last summer’s FIBA World Cup and sure, Wemby wasn’t there, but that was the key game that showed just how much of a liability France’s guard play can be for them. They can’t hang with the world's best in their backcourt, and Canada’s duo of Gilgeous-Alexander and Murray should bring them to the semifinals.
Serbia and Australia should be a great match and a rematch of the 2016 semifinal where Jokic and Serbia prevailed by a final score of 87-61. The Boomers had their worst game of the tournament at the worst time but will get a chance at revenge that we expect them to take. This one is a true toss-up though. Both teams have NBA talent, and well-rounded rosters, and have been successful in FIBA competitions as of late.
We give the edge to Australia because they’ve looked great in their warm-up games, and have a great amount of roster versatility that could prove crucial in a close game like this one. They have the bigs to rotate on Jokic too. They won’t bet on slowing him down, but wearing him down throughout the game. Landale, Reath, and Magnay have 15 fouls between them. They’ll put them to good use.
The concern for Australia, and hope for Serbia, is that they’re capable of dud games offensively. That’s what happened in the second round against Slovenia at the FIBA World Cup. Their offense dried up, and Luka Doncic had a standout game to carry his team to a comfortable victory. Serbia will try to replicate that formula.
Who will make it to the gold medal game at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
The semifinal matchups would be Team USA vs. Australia and Germany vs. Canada. It’s almost impossible to pick a winner in these two games. Outlier shooting, the rebounding and possessions battle, as well as interior defense will be the three key factors in who comes out on top. The Olympics themselves carry the weight and intensity of the NBA playoffs, and the semifinals and beyond are like the NBA Finals. That will be on full display this summer, and especially in matchups like these. Our guess is as good as anyone’s here, but we’re going to give the edge to talent and pick Team USA and Canada to advance to the gold medal game.
Will Team USA capture the gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Team USA taking on Canada for the gold medal will likely go down in Olympic history for decades to come. Canada got the better of Team USA at last summer’s FIBA World Cup for the bronze medal, and it took overtime. This game may require extra basketball too, but Team USA likely gets revenge and goes home with gold, reasserting themselves as the world’s best.
Australia came up short of medaling in 2016, losing to Spain 89-88 in the 2016 bronze medal game. They would grab their medal in Tokyo six years later but under COVID it didn’t feel the same. We expect them to grab bronze again this summer, and likely in a more memorable fashion than last time.
Those are our final picks, Team USA for gold, Canada for silver, and Australia for bronze.
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