3 contenders with major holes to fill after NBA free agency and the draft

After a dominating season and bringing back their entire regular rotation, the Boston Celtics come into the 2024-25 NBA season as favorites to defend their title. They have one of the deepest and most well-rounded rosters seen in recent vintage, so the other title hopefuls vying for their crown will have a slim margin for error if they want to be the ones raising a banner next June.

With a busy offseason of teams jockeying for an edge and retooling their rosters largely in the books, everyone comes into the new season with a renewed sense of optimism. But for teams that fancy themselves title contenders, the difference between earning a ring and going home empty-handed can be a fine line if they’re missing even a single critical piece.

With this in mind, here are three teams that will have eyes on the Larry O’Brien trophy who still have holes to fill on their rosters that could come back to bite them.

3. Denver Nuggets – Shooting Guard

The Nuggets are a team that has always kept a close eye on their finances and this summer, with the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement in full effect, was no exception. They were trying to carefully navigate the first and second aprons of the league’s salary cap and ended up losing their starting shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to a big payday with the Orlando Magic.

Already being over the first apron without KCP on the books, they did not have many tools available to replace him. Even before free agency began, Nuggets GM Calvin Booth was seemingly at peace with his potential departure, showing extreme confidence in their young wing from Kansas University, Christian Braun. They brought in Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric during free agency, but nobody who would credibly man the wing rotation, leaving Braun the likely replacement in the starting lineup.

KCP was a dogged perimeter defender and useful outside shooter playing off three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. His 3-point shooting is of particular use on a team that finished dead last in the league last season in 3-point attempt frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. He was also the team's most efficient transition scorer in the rotation, another area where the Nuggets were already behind the curve, ranking last in the league in points per transition play as well.

Braun has shown himself to be a capable defender, but this has been on a smaller sample size (17.9 minutes per game for his career) and largely against bench units. KCP is a two-time champion as a team’s primary perimeter defender, showing a much more consistent track record. Braun has shown promise, ranking in the 83rd percentile in points per possession (PPP) defending pick-and-rolls and 60th percentile defending isolations, according to Synergy Sports. But it remains to be seen whether he can replicate these numbers in a featured role.

There are some other concerns that come on the offensive end of the floor. Braun has shown excellent IQ on cuts and can crash the offensive boards, but tended to struggle in many other areas compared to KCP last season. Synergy tracked the following comparisons of their most common off ball play types:

With Jokic and Jamal Murray doing the bulk of the ball handling, efficiency in these types of plays is paramount. Braun will have to prove that he can be more efficient in these areas, which will hopefully be helped by playing more minutes with the stars.

The most obvious area of concern is floor spacing. The Nuggets already play a limited shooter big minutes in Aaron Gordon, and as mentioned, put up fewer 3s in relation to overall shot attempts than any team in the league. Replacing Caldwell-Pope with Braun is only going to exacerbate this issue, as while he shot a respectable percentage on 3s (38.4 percent), he took only 31% of his shots from behind the arc (less than four per 36 minutes). KCP, on the other hand, took more than half his shots from that range and importantly receives much more attention from the defense out there.

Christian Braun is young enough to keep improving and prove the skeptics wrong, but as of now the shooting guard spot for the Nuggets remains a question mark heading into the season.

2. Milwaukee Bucks – Perimeter Defense

The Bucks made a drastic change to their identity last season with their swap of Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen for Damian Lillard. Holiday, in particular, is an absolute menace on the defensive end, hounding ball handlers of all shapes and sizes like few others in the league can do. The team went from top five in the league in defensive points per possession allowed in 2022-23 to 19th in 2023-24, per Cleaning the Glass.

One could blame the erratic coaching situation or the lack of chemistry after making such a significant change to the team, but one thing is for sure: There remains a lot to be desired when it comes to the defensive personnel on this roster. The Bucks were relying heavily on Lillard, Malik Beasley, Pat Connaughton, and Khris Middleton to buoy their perimeter defense last season, and that group simply has pronounced limitations.

Head coach Doc Rivers has the opportunity to clean this up with a full training camp, but the personnel is rough. The team did sign a defensive specialist in Delon Wright, but it seems like it may be an uphill battle for him to be on the floor in crucial moments with his offensive limitations. Newly signed guard Gary Trent Jr. has shown the ability to be disruptive in passing lanes but has never been known as a stopper.

Many of the plays that rely heavily on perimeter defense, on a team where the big man drops like Brook Lopez tends to do, did not go well for the team last season. Here are the results on some of those plays for the season according to Synergy Sports:

Yikes ... going through the Eastern Conference, they will be forced to deal with the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Donovan Mitchell, to name just a few of the elite ball handlers in the conference. These types of results are just not going to cut it if they want to make any noise in the playoffs. Trent Jr. showed little resistance against pick-and-roll ball handlers and spot-up shooters last season as well, adding to the concern.

Wright, on the other hand, figures to be a critical piece of the puzzle. If he can find a way to ensure he is not hurting the team's offense by making enough catch-and-shoot jumpers to keep defenses honest, he could be an invaluable asset to the team. If he continues to be a reluctant outside shooter, he may find himself on the bench and leave the important lineups bereft of defensive acumen, limiting the team's ceiling.

1. New York Knicks – Center

The Knicks made a huge splash this offseason, finally cashing in a boatload of draft capital for another Villanova Wildcat and do-it-all wing Mikal Bridges. Though they paid a hefty price, adding Bridges to pair with OG Anunoby on the wing is terrifying for opposing ball handlers.

The other significant change in the Knicks' roster this summer, however, was the loss of big man Isaiah Hartenstein, who signed a lucrative contract with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Hartenstein was absolutely critical to the Knicks' success last season in helping them to not miss a beat after starting center Mitchell Robinson went down with a long-term injury.

Without fully qualifying Bird Rights on Hartenstein, the Knicks were limited in how much salary they could offer him by the league's salary cap rules. This ultimately led to his departure and the team has been unable to replace what he brought to the table.

First and foremost, while Robinson is a quality starting center with his rim protection and manic activity on the boards, he has had a real problem staying on the court. He has missed an average of 24 games per season throughout his career and has never topped 28 minutes per game in a season. This raises the criticality of having a capable backup in place.

Currently, the Knicks project to be playing an undersized Precious Achiuwa, a historically ineffective Jericho Sims, and perhaps an ill-fitting Julius Randle at center when Robinson is off the floor. The team will likely outwork opponents and overwhelm them with talent to rack up wins in the regular season, minimizing this issue, but the playoffs become a different animal.

In addition to overall size and talent, Hartenstein also provided a unique skillset on the offensive end that can't really be replicated by Robinson, even when healthy. The Knicks were a whopping 7.0 PPP better on offense with Hartenstein on the floor vs off, according to Cleaning the Glass. One of the primary reasons for this was his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, while not taking things off the table on the defensive end like more traditional (smaller) ball handlers might do.

Hartenstein's ability in pick-and-rolls, especially when the ball handler is being trapped, to make a smart play on the short roll with his passing vision made the Knicks much harder to guard. Not having this option available in the playoffs is something that can be exploited by the league's best defenses. Trying to replicate it with someone like Randle, likely brings with it a slew of defensive problems on the other end, making it a difficult balance to strike.

New York has a few assets to try and swing a deal for another big man prior to or during the season, but it is difficult to imagine them landing someone who gave them what Hartenstein did. It remains to be seen whether the team can compensate for this loss through alternative means.