Best and worst moves of the 2024 NBA offseason: Central Division

The NBA offseason is always full of both exciting and head-scratching transactions, and 2024 was no exception. There were many important decisions to be made in the Central Division this summer. As the Milwaukee Bucks aim to sustain their championship window, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers work to climb the standings, while the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls look to solidify their young cores. Here’s a breakdown of the best and worst moves each team made this offseason and how those decisions could shape their seasons ahead.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls might finally be starting the transition most fans and observers have been clamoring for them to start for a while now. DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Andre Drummond have all departed, and the futures of Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine are huge question marks. Even before the departures, the team won just 39 games in 2023-24. Now, they may begin plummeting down the standings even faster, whether they like it or not.

Best Move: Draft Matas Buzelis at No. 11

Unfortunately, there isn’t a ton to be too excited about with the Bulls’ dealings this summer, but they took a worthwhile swing with the No. 11 pick in the draft on Chicago Native Matas Buzelis. He is certainly a project, as he is mostly a raw box of tantalizing tools at the moment, but thinking long-term should be the main focus for the Bulls anyway. His size, athleticism, and base skill set are an enticing starting point for a modern NBA forward. His ability to make shots is going to be the biggest swing skill, making this a high-risk selection, but the team has time to let him grow.

Buzelis plays hard and excels in transition, where the Bulls ranked last in the league in frequency of possessions last season, according to Synergy. Bulls’ newcomer Josh Giddey also likes to push the ball in transition, so while they both need work on their outside shooting, they could be a solid match together out on the break. He has also shown great ability to be a defensive playmaker, having racked up 3.0 stocks (steals plus blocks) per game in the G-League last season and flashed it again in Summer League with 4.0 stocks per game. The Ringer’s NBA draft guide had Buzelis ranked No. 4 on their big board, so if you agree with their analysis, the Bulls got a steal at No. 11.

Worst Move: Sign Patrick Williams for 5 years, $90 million

Most would probably list trading Alex Caruso for Josh Giddey here, and they’d have a decent argument in doing so. The general narrative around both players is about as far apart as you can imagine, with Caruso having about as many detractors as Giddey does fans, which is not many. We’re going to go off the beaten path with the five-year, eight-figure commitment to Patrick Williams, though.

The 2020 draft’s No. 4 pick has just been very underwhelming in his career thus far. He was a project coming in and he is still young, but after four seasons he is still having a hard time putting his stamp on the game when he’s on the floor. Williams shot a career-low effective field goal percentage in his fourth season (52.7 percent), while continuing to be a very low-usage offensive player in general (15.9 percent usage), per Cleaning the Glass. He also does not provide any rim pressure on offense and was a poor defensive rebounder, rebounding just 9.6 percent of opponents’ misses while on the floor.

Williams has shown promise defending pick-and-roll ball handlers, ranking 84th percentile in points per possession (PPP) on these plays per Synergy. Additionally, when he does get them up, he has made 41 percent of his 3s throughout his career. By signing him to this contract, though, the team is still banking quite heavily on his upside without the track record to warrant the investment. The team is very expensive already, and this contract (along with many other questionable deals already on the books) also contributed to their inability to take back Harrison Barnes’s contract in the DeRozan trade to receive draft capital from the Kings. To top it all off, he has a Player Option in the last year of the deal, taking even more leverage and flexibility away from the team.

Cleveland Cavaliers

In the second year of the Donovan Mitchell experience, the Cavaliers were hit hard by injuries and, while winning a playoff round, went out rather meekly in the second round of the playoffs. The Isaac Okoro restricted free agency saga continues to drag on, but overall, the team has not added or lost any significant pieces from last season’s team. They did, however, make sizeable monetary commitments to multiple players this offseason, having extended the contracts of Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley.

Best Move: Extend Donovan Mitchell for 3 years, $150 million

Having just a short time left on his contract and not having publicly “chosen” to head to Cleveland when he was traded there in 2022, Mitchell has been the subject of trade rumors since almost immediately upon arrival. Many had him circled early on as a flight risk if things did not work out well for the team with him in tow. Though the results have been somewhat choppy and there have been questions about his fit with Darius Garland, the team still managed to rack up 99 regular-season wins in two seasons. Mitchell has also been the most consistent offensive engine on the team in that span and earned himself a max extension this July.

This contract extension provides a level of stability to his contract situation so there does not need to be constant speculation about him being traded or leaving in free agency. They are going to run things back with additional continuity, improved health (hopefully), and new coach Kenny Atkinson at the helm to see if they can break into the circle of true Eastern Conference contenders. Having Mitchell locked in as one of the league's most dynamic off-the-dribble weapons will go a long way in helping them reach their ceiling.

Worst Move: Extend Jarrett Allen for 3 years, $91 million

It’s tough to be too critical of any moves made by a team that has made no actual roster changes, but the veteran contract extension for Jarrett Allen stands out as a move that carries some risk. For starters, the deal does not kick in until the 2026-27 season, meaning Allen will play two more seasons before it even starts. There isn’t really any reason to think that his productivity would decline during that time, but it puts more risk on the team, nonetheless.

Additionally, much has been made of his on-court fit with Evan Mobley, who also received a large contract extension this summer. Neither player is currently able to reliably stretch the defense out to the 3-point line, creating some cramped spacing and clunky possessions at times. And while Mobley is an above-average perimeter defender for his size, both excel most in defending the rim. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with both Mobley and Allen on the floor operated at just a plus-1.0 differential last season, while Allen-only lineups were plus-5.6.

For the Cavs’ sake, this contract will hopefully not hurt Allen’s trade value, as should the team continue to fall short of expectations, moving on from him seems like it is a likely outcome.

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons had a season from hell in 2023-24. They were embarrassingly bad on both ends of the floor, finished with the worst record in the league, and tied the record for most consecutive losses ever by an NBA team. After trying and failing last offseason, the team came into the 2024 summer with the intent of increasing the respectability of their performance, having made a multitude of changes on and off the court.

Best Move: Hire J.B. Bickerstaff as Head Coach

The Pistons hired Monty Williams to be their head coach last summer, inking him to the largest coaching contract in NBA history at the time. Fast forward a year, and the Pistons were the laughingstock of the league and Williams was let go with five years left on his contract. This hire was seemingly doomed from the start, as Williams may not have even wanted to coach the team at all, save for the monster offer.

Enter J.B. Bickerstaff, coming over from Cleveland after some disappointing playoff finishes. His experience in Cleveland included recent seasons with talented rosters and high hopes, as well as rougher years with young, less talented teams prior to that. He already has big plans for their talented guards, a dynamic he also has some familiarity with while trying to optimize the combination of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.

The Pistons also made adding veterans and most importantly, shooting to the roster, which will help Bickerstaff find improved on-court combinations to attempt to bring the team out of the cellar. It’s a tall order, but Bickerstaff is one of the most well-respected young coaches in the league and looks to be up to the challenge.

Worst Move: Tim Hardaway Jr. trade

Early on in free agency, the Pistons traded Quentin Grimes to the Dallas Mavericks for Tim Hardaway Jr. and three second-round picks. Using cap space to extract value in the form of draft capital is a worthwhile endeavor for a team far from contention like Detroit; however, they seemed to have missed out on even more value by acting early and by assigning unwarranted on-court value to Hardaway Jr.

Hardaway is undoubtedly a gunner but has had a really hard time actually putting the ball in the basket the last few seasons. He has ranked 28th, 46th, and 37th percentile in effective field goal percentage in his last three seasons in Dallas, per Cleaning the Glass. He also finished just 40th percentile in points per shot on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season, according to Synergy. Since he doesn’t bring much else to the table, it is tough to imagine him bringing a ton of value on the court without making shots, short of a contract-year renaissance.

Gaining three second-round picks sounds nice on paper, but when you consider Hardaway’s $16 million salary they took on, it seems they didn’t receive the value they could have. Reggie Jackson’s $5 million salary was taken on by Charlotte this summer as well, receiving the same quantity of three second-round picks from Denver for doing so. Additionally, holding onto this cap space longer may have kept them in the running for taking on Harrison Barnes from the Kings in the DeMar DeRozan trade, where San Antonio was able to acquire Barnes (a superior player) and a first-round pick swap as well.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made a surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, where they ultimately fell to the eventual champion Boston Celtics. They blitzed the league all season with their breakneck pace, running in transition at every opportunity and finishing with the league’s No. 2 offense. This is a young, up-and-coming team that added a veteran All-Star midseason in Pascal Siakam, so they are looking to build on their success to keep up with the best in the Eastern Conference

Best Move: Extend Andrew Nembhard for 3 years, $58 million

Though his raw stats might not show it at first glance, Andrew Nembhard took a big step in development last year. With injuries to Ben Mathurin and Tyrese Haliburton at different points in the regular season, he was able to capitalize on extra opportunities, proving himself to be a reliable two-way player in the backcourt.

Then the playoffs came around and he upped his game to another level. This culminated in filling in for Tyrese Haliburton during the Celtics series, where he exploded for 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game on 54 percent shooting. Obviously, this is a small sample size, and the team ultimately ended up getting swept, but this was a meaningful coming-out party that could be a sign of things to come.

If you believe this production is real, then this extension at an average of $19.5 million per year will end up a steal. There is real risk that it was not sustainable, which is why the number isn’t even higher. Even if he isn’t truly a star, a versatile, starting guard who can be a plus on both ends and at both guard positions is well worth this contract.

Worst Move: Sign Obi Toppin for 4 years, $58 million

This new contract for Obi Toppin is less appetizing. As a restricted free agent, it would seem that he didn’t have much leverage to be getting a big offer from other teams. Only one team in the league used the entirety of their Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, which is still a lower salary than what Toppin received, and that was on a much more proven player in De’Anthony Melton.

Toppin is a useful depth piece in a rotation, his speed in the open floor is a nice fit with the Pacers’ up-tempo system, and he has been a very efficient finisher alongside Haliburton; however, he leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. He is not making plays off the ball with steals or blocks, he is a poor rebounder on both ends and does not contain dribble penetration on the perimeter well either, leaving him without a real role. The Pacers will score points, but really need to lock in on defense to take the next step.

They are not a team with an appetite for big spending, so there is a risk that this contract ends up being a hindrance to their dealings in the future.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks went out with a whimper against Indiana in the first round of last season’s playoffs. By the end, they were ravaged by injuries and just didn’t have the bodies to compete with the upstart Pacers. They came into the offseason as a second-apron team, so they did not have much to work with in the way of resources to acquire talent. With their top four players (Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton, Lopez) all returning, three of whom are getting a bit long in the tooth, they are looking to make a run at the Eastern Conference Finals right now.

Best Move: Sign Gary Trent Jr for 1 year, Minimum

Every year, there seems to be one or two surprising players that fall through the cracks in free agency and end up signing somewhere close to or at a minimum salary. Last year, it was Kelly Oubre Jr. with Philly and Malik Beasley with these same Bucks. This year, Tyus Jones ended up on a discount deal in Phoenix and the Bucks seem to have gotten huge value out of a minimum deal again with Gary Trent Jr.

Trent Jr. is a career 38 percent 3-point shooter and from a pure talent perspective, much better than can usually be signed for a minimum salary contract. With Giannis and Lillard constantly drawing multiple defenders, open looks are likely to figure prominently in his shot diet. He ranked 79th percentile in points per shot on catch-and-shoot jumpers last season (93rd percentile when unguarded) per Synergy, which bodes well for that expectation.

He does not look to be a huge boon to their perimeter defense, which is one of their more glaring weaknesses, but for a minimum-salary signing, you can’t expect to do much better.

Worst Move: Draft A.J. Johnson at No. 23

This pick was widely panned as a reach in the first round of the draft. The Bucks have very little means of adding young talent with draft picks and went with a project guard who really struggled in Australia’s NBL last season. He uses shifty speed and ball handling to get anywhere he wants to go on the floor, but still needs significant development in most other areas of the game, including physically. He struggled to get on the floor for the Illawarra Hawks and shot just 35 percent from the field when he did appear. He followed that up with 32 percent shooting in Summer League, confirming he has a long way to go.

Obviously, nobody truly knows how this pick will turn out. His tools are intriguing, and if he ends up working out, it wouldn’t be the first time the Bucks drafted a raw, unproven project who turned into an impact player. For now, though, fans are seeing him ranked at No. 54 on The Ringer’s big board and being graded a "D" in our own Christopher Kline’s live draft grades, so it’s looking dicey.