A Braves-Cardinals trade to fill the hole in Atlanta’s rotation

With the way that we've been talking about the Atlanta Braves of late, you would think they would be the St. Louis Cardinals, a team with improved expectations that has absolutely fallen flat on their face. But entering Saturday, the struggles for the Braves have amounted to being firmly still in playoff contention and sitting 11 games over .500 for the year.

That, however, doesn't mean the Braves can be complacent moving forward. The biggest help for the Braves would be for slumping stars like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson to snap out of it and get back to their MVP-caliber form. However, with Spencer Strider out for the rest of the season, Atlanta's rotation has been four strong starts and then a question mark.

Max Fried has returned to dominant form, Charlie Morton is as solid as ever, Reynaldo Lopez has been a stud as he stretches out into a starter, and Chris Sale has turned back the clock. The fifth role without Strider, however, has been a question mark. Bryce Elder has been nothing close to his 2023 All-Star form while guys like Darius Vines and Allan Winans have been inconsistent at best.

That's where the aforementioned Cardinals could come into play. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak made an aggressive push to upgrade St. Louis' pitching this offseason, most notably signing right-handed ace Sonny Gray in free agency. That hasn't yielded a turnaround from their dismal 71-91 campaign a year ago, though, entering Saturday at 15-23 on the year.

So what if the Braves were to go after Sonny Gray in a trade? For the right deal, which we will try to propose right here, the Cardinals might have to bite down and take the trade.

Braves-Cardinals trade that sends Sonny Gray to Atlanta

We have a bit of a framework from the Mets last year in dealing Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer ahead of the trade deadline wherein they took on some of the salary in order to get a better return from the Astros and Rangers, respectively. So in this hypothetical trade package, I'd expect the same from the Cardinals.

To get this deal done, the Cardinals take on $10 million of Gray's 2025 and 2026 salary while leaving the Braves on the hook for the rest of his 2024 salary, which is discounted in relation to the final two years of the deal. Gray's 2027 club option remains fully on the Braves.

As we know, the Braves are nowhere near the top of MLB's top farm systems, so they're going to have to fork over AJ Smith-Shawver if they would want to entice the Cardinals to move Gray. And really, this trade could work out perfectly for St. Louis given their needs.

Mozeliak, as mentioned, made pitching a priority in free agency this past offseason, which is why they went out to grab Gray. But the truth of the matter is that the future of the rotation for the Cardinals remains in flux. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson aren't spring chickens, Miles Mikolas has a bit more gray than you might think, and Steven Matz almost surely isn't part of the future. There are definitely questions, and questions that could rear their heads sooner than later.

Smith-Shawver and Vines could potentially be answers for that at 21 and 26 years old, respectively, having already garnered some major-league experience. Smith-Shawver rapidly rose through the Braves system last year and made six appearances in Atlanta last season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at then-20 years old. Vines, meanwhile, has a 4.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over seven MLB appearances across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

At this point, though, investing in the future should be the Cardinals goal as their current construction simply isn't producing winning baseball. Meanwhile, the Braves are in contrast to that, a win-now team that could extend some of this current window before Max Fried potentially leaves in 2025 free agency and before Charlie Morton likely retires this upcoming offseason. And, of course, it helps replace the injured Strider in the immediate future.

Giving up a top prospect and a viable arm isn't something that the Braves should take lightly, but for a dominant righty like Gray who would still be in the organization for two more years -- and who could come at a discounted rate for the 2024 season -- it should indeed be worth it.