Cleveland Guardians clinching scenarios: Playoff spot aside, there's plenty to play for

Expectations weren't super high for the 2024 Cleveland Guardians. They went 76-86 in 2023, lost Terry Francona, and lost more than they gained on paper over the offseason as well.

Despite those lower expectations, rookie manager Steven Vogt has had this team in first place in the AL Central and among those with the best records in the majors all season long. It was only a matter of when, not if, Cleveland was going to punch its ticket to the postseason, and sure enough, they managed to do so in thrilling fashion on Thursday.

Andres Gimenez drilled a walk-off single to score what would be the winning run. The Guardians deserve to celebrate having clinched a postseason berth, but there's still so much more for them to play for even before the postseason begins.

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How the Cleveland Guardians can clinch the AL Central: What needs to happen

Clinching a playoff spot is nice, but the real prize teams aim for in the regular season is a division title. Fortunately, the Guardians have as good of a chance as just about any team, armed with 99.9 percent odds to win the AL Central according to FanGraphs. In other words, it's more of a matter of when, not if, this happens.

Every Guardians win and loss from their closest competitor will get them closer to winning the division, and based on where their magic number is, it could happen in the next couple of days.

Magic number for the Cleveland Guardians to clinch the AL Central

To the surprise of just about everyone, the AL Central (outside of the White Sox) has been one of the most competitive divisions in the majors this season. Being able to play the 36-117 White Sox more than teams in other divisions certainly helps, but four teams being seven or more games over .500 with only a couple more weeks of the regular season doesn't happen by accident.

The Guardians have been leading the division virtually all year long, and thanks to their five wins in their last six games, they've built a 6.5-game lead in the division. As of now, their magic number to win the division is three. To calculate this, you'd need to subtract Cleveland's wins from the total games played in a season, and then subtract the losses from their closest competitor by the result of the first calculation. Every Guardians win and/or loss from their closest competitor lowers the magic number, so every Guardians win and loss from the second place team gets them closer to winning the division. They're a combined three Cleveland wins and losses from the second-place team away from winning the division.

Key matchups impacting the Guardians chances at clinching the AL Central

Fortunately for Cleveland, they no longer have to play any games against their AL Central rivals, so all they really need to do is focus on themselves. With three wins they clinch the division, and any losses from their closest competitor can help too.

The Guardians are about to head to St. Louis to begin a three-game series against a St. Louis Cardinals team that is all but out of postseason contention, while the second-place Kansas City Royals will be facing a San Francisco Giants team that was just eliminated from contention. Those two series will be most important for Guardians fans to watch right now.

What playoff seeding could look like for the Guardians if they clinch the AL Central

The Guardians have had such a good year to the point where they not only have the inside track to win the AL Central, but they've got a really good chance at securing one of the top two seeds in the AL, guaranteeing them a bye. They'd avoid the Wild Card series entirely and begin their run in the ALDS, earning much-needed rest in the process. It's a massive advantage.

The Guardians currently hold a 6.0-game lead over the Houston Astros for the No. 2 seed in the AL, so barring an epic collapse on their end and a massive hot streak from the 'Stros, the bye will be theirs. The No. 1 seed is important to look at too, as that would guarantee them home-field advantage throughout the entire AL postseason. As of now, the Guardians are 1.0 game behind the New York Yankees for the No. 1 seed in the AL.

Potential playoff opponents for the Cleveland Guardians after clinching the AL Central

Assuming the Guardians get one of the top two seeds in the AL and avoid the Wild Card Series, they'll be facing one of the two winning teams from that first round. They'll have home field advantage for the ALDS regardless of if they're the No. 1 or No. 2 seed, the only difference will be the team that they face.

It's hard to predict exactly who Cleveland will face since they'll almost certainly have a bye, but they'll be facing either the Astros or one of the three Wild Card teams. As of this writing, the Wild Card teams are the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Minnesota Twins, but the Detroit Tigers are lurking, and with how they've been playing, they could easily sneak in.