College football rankings 2024, projected preseason AP Top 25: Georgia, Ohio State, then everyone else

More so than ever before, the college football rankings can be changed by what happens in the offseason. Yes, things like coaching changes and recruiting from the high school level have always had an impact on the forthcoming Top 25 for the next season. However, the institution of the transfer portal has amplified that notion tenfold. 

The 2024 offseason has been a prime example of that precisely. And it’s only been further exacerbated by the number and level of coaching changes that we’ve seen in the offseason. Nick Saban’s retirement, Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL, Chip Kelly joining Ohio State as a coordinator and many more will have palpable effects on the 2024 college football season. 

Nonetheless, it’s a massive year for college football with the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and so many surefire contenders in the mix. We’re also tantalizingly close to it all starting with the AP Top 25 college football rankings likely to drop in less than a week. But what will the preseason rankings look like? Based on what we know, here are our projections for the forthcoming AP Top 25. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 25-21

25. Iowa Hawkeyes

Nepotism no longer reigns supreme at Kinnick Stadium and the hope is that the oft-putrid Iowa offense will tick up by replacing Brian Ferentz with Tim Lester. Then again, the quarterback position remains a question with Cade McNamara at the helm. What can’t be questioned is Phil Parker’s defense, though, which figures to again be one of the best in the country. A big worry for the Hawkeyes though: How will losing the Big Ten West cushion hurt them in year one of the realignment shuffle?

24. Virginia Tech Hokies

Perhaps a bit quietly, the Virginia Tech Hokies trended in the right direction throughout most of last season, which now makes them an undeniable ACC sleeper in the 2024 season. Kyron Drones is a dynamic force at quarterback but, more importantly, the Hokies only lose one starter from last year’s squad coming into the year. Brent Pry could be a chaos agent in a wide-open conference. 

23. Arizona Wildcats

When Jedd Fisch went to the PNW for at least this season (shouts to Gainesville and a wandering eye), the worry was that the Arizona Wildcats were primed to lose some of their best players. The transfer portal did cause some losses but that knocks Brett Brennan’s team down to the back of the Top 25 rather than inside the Top 15 in my book. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan returning should elevate the floor and the ceiling of the offense start to finish.

22. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Not only has Mike Gundy – his offseason comments not included – earned our respect for what he gets done in Stillwater, but there’s reason to believe in the Pokes beyond just the head coach. Doak Walker favorite Ollie Gordon II returns in the backfield and Alan Bowman is back for his 32nd (unofficial) season in college football. With a defense that is still playing up, Oklahoma State will have a say in the Big 12. 

21. Texas A&M Aggies

What does the post-Jimbo Fisher era look like for Texas A&M? The return of Mike Elko should produce plenty of optimism, even with a multitude of high-profile transfer losses. Conner Weigman was not among them and his talent remains exceptionally enticing. Having said that, he needs to stay healthy while Purdue transfer Nic Scourton will need to have a monster effort to buoy Elko’s defense in College Station given the big losses they’ve seen, specifically on that side of the ball. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 20-16

20. USC Trojans

An early season tilt against LSU in Sin City will tell us quite a bit about who the Trojans are but I’m, admittedly, drinking the Kool-Aid a bit with this team. I don’t expect the AP Top 25 voters to fully buy that. However, the defense should improve quite starkly under D’Anton Lynn while Miller Moss is a system quarterback who may absolutely thrive in the Lincoln Riley offense and deliver a fight for a CFP spot to the USC program.

19. NC State Wolfpack

Back-to-back teams I’m much higher on than I expect the AP Top 25 preseason rankings to be. NC State is my current pick to win the ACC. Dave Doeren has been a consistent overachiever with the Wolfpack and now returns a talented roster that’s added former Coastal Carolina star Grayson McCall to the mix. Their defense shouldn’t miss too much of a beat from being elite last year and I trust this team’s floor more than others in the conference.

18. Kansas State Wildcats

This might be the perfect storm for Chris Klieman to make the College Football Playoff as a Big 12 champion. Not only does Kansas State return a ton of experience on defense, which is where they will need to improve, but moving on from Will Howard to Avery Johnson could be a huge offensive upgrade in the long run. With the dynamic signal-caller and a host of weapons, the Wildcats will be dangerous all season long. 

17. Miami Hurricanes

On talent alone, one could make the argument that Miami deserves to be knocking on the door of the Top 10 in these rankings. Cam Ward and Damien Martinez enter the fray and should provide an electric pairing offensively and the defense has playmakers abound as well. However, Mario Cristobal has been a chronic underachiever and he’ll have to flip that narrative before I or many AP voters believe he can deliver the goods. 

16. Oklahoma Sooners

After a dismal start to his return to Norman, Brent Venables got Oklahoma to a double-digit win season last year, which drastically improved the vibes in Norman as it becomes part of SEC country. Jackson Arnold is the goods as a young talent but there could be some growing pains, which we saw in his bowl game start. A tough schedule, even by SEC standards, won’t help the Sooners but this team is ultimately trending in the right direction. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 15-11

15. Tennessee Volunteers

There was an expected letdown for Tennessee after the departure of Hendon Hooker but Josh Heupel kept the wheels on in the end to salvage another quality year. But Nico Iamaleava now taking the reins of the offense has everyone believing in the Vols as a potential CFP team. I’m high on the quarterback and even more so on a defense that’s been on the upswing. However, I’m not sure voters will entirely be bought in entering the season. 

14. Clemson Tigers

Another offseason of Dabo Swinney coming under fire and Clemson will still be ranked as a Top 15 team in the country. The Tigers defense should truly be one of the best in the country and certainly in the ACC this season. Having said that, little Cade Klubnik showed in his first full season as the starter inspires confidence despite his recruiting pedigree and I remain dubious that Dabo’s approach to roster building can totally work in this era of the sport – at least at the level it did previously. 

13. LSU Tigers

With how dominant Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense were last year, even an average defense could’ve had Brian Kelly in the College Football Playoff hunt. Unfortunately, it was one of the worst in the country. Daniels is gone but Garrett Nussmeier has a litany of fans who believe that the offense may change but won’t stop being elite. The defense should improve with the arrival of Blake Baker from Mizzou and LSU might be in the Playoff mix after all in the 12-team format. 

12. Florida State Seminoles

Last season’s town-crier (and I say this knowing they got hosed in the final Playoff rankings egregiously), Florida State suffered a huge number of losses from the roster that went undefeated in the regular season. Mike Norvell continues to be a transfer portal warrior, though, and if D.J. Uiagalelei can continue to build off of solid foundation formed at Oregon State, the newcomer could carry FSU to another stellar campaign. 

11. Utah Utes

New conference, same Utah. The Utes are the preseason pick for many to win the Big 12 in their first season since realignment and it’s hard to argue with it. While I maintain the defense, though experienced, has been slightly lesser than in previous years, Cam Rising returns and is finally healthy after Kyle Whittingham played QB musical chairs in 2023. Ultimately, though, we truly have no reason not to trust Whittingham at this point in his career. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 10-9

10. Michigan Wolverines

Let me get out ahead of this. Because they are the defending national champions and because they’re Michigan, I absolutely expect the Wolverines to be ranked as a Top 10 team in the country in the preseason AP Top 25. By my estimation, though, they just simply aren’t on that level. The argument against that would be the defense, which should undeniably be elite again with Mason Graham, Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant and many more. But especially in the new Big Ten and with a tough schedule, they’ll need more than that. 

And frankly, I’m not sure they have it. Alex Orji is the projected quarterback and we’ve nary seen him throw a pass. Blake Corum is gone, even if Donovan Edwards returns, and the O-line could take a slight step back. Beyond that, losing Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter could be devastating blows to the coaching staff, especially with largely unproven Sherrone Moore taking the helm. 

The team is still talented but we should definitely be tempering expectations more than we are.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions

Speaking of tempering expectations, I’d imagine few teams give AP Top 25 voters or any college football prognosticators more trouble than the Penn State Nittany Lions. James Franklin has been dubbed a driving school instructor by myself and my False Start co-host John Buhler because you know he’s going to keep you at 10-2. But 10-2 in the new Big Ten might be easily good enough to earn a spot in the 12-team Playoff. 

The defense in Happy Valley truly has few questions. Abdul Carter headlines that side of the ball and for good reason but that’s rarely been a question for the Nittany Lions. PSU’s ceiling really comes down to Drew Allar. After the hype train rolled into 2023, he didn’t nearly live up to it. The talent is still there, though, and an improved receiving corps could allow him to elevate. If that happens, Penn State is almost a CFP lock. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 8-7

8. Missouri Tigers

One of the biggest feathers in the cap of Missouri in the 2024 season is that they have one of the most manageable schedules in the SEC. However, when you look at the roster that Eli Drinkwitz has put together in CoMo, they might not even need it. Brady Cook returns under center after taking a big leap forward last season and could do so again with assists from the elite duo of Luther Burden III and Williams Nwaneri. 

What will define the ceiling of the Tigers and perhaps their Playoff viability will be the defense. There is plenty of returning production to hang your hat on but the loss of Blake Baker to LSU is something to watch. Even still, Drinkwitz has proven he’s more than just a flash in the pan with how he’s gotten things rolling at Mizzou, which to me will earn him plenty of benefit of the doubt. 

7. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin long ago dubbed himself the Portal King. This offseason, he did just about everything he could to make sure he earned that moniker. Eyeing down another comparably manageable SEC schedule with a roster already returning the likes of Jaxson Dart and more, the Rebels went on a shopping spree in the portal that landed them the likes of Walter Nolen, Juice Wells and plenty more that make Ole Miss quite formidable. 

Two big questions loom over Ole Miss, and they’re why I believe the voters will have them outside of the Top 6 in the preseason poll. Foremost, can Kiffin get over the hump? We know he’s a phenomenal offensive mind and a top-tier coach but taking the next step has eluded him to this point. Then we have the loss of Quinshon Judkins, arguably the best back in college football. Still, the Rebs brought in enough talent that they could still withstand that loss. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 6-5

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Whether deserved or not, simply being Notre Dame often gives the Fighting Irish a substantial bump when it comes to preseason voting for the AP Top 25. This year, however, I’m of the belief that it’s entirely deserved. Marcus Freeman did a phenomenal job of leveling up the Irish last season after a rollercoaster 2022 campaign and now he’s done so again, specifically at the quarterback position. 

Riley Leonard transferring in from Duke is a massive upgrade for the offense. He needs to stay healthy, to be sure, but the talent is that of a potential first-round pick in the NFL Draft, something Notre Dame simply hasn’t had in quite a long time. The Irish will need the receiving corps to continue its ascension but the total sum of this team’s parts with Leonard in the fold truly make them a Top 5 team in the country, even if the voters will have them just outside. 

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Speaking of teams that will be at least slightly miscast in the preseason AP Top 25, the first Alabama ranking in the post-Nick Saban world for the Crimson Tide will be indicative of that. Make no mistake, the more that the offseason has worn on, the more invested I’ve become in Kalen DeBoer being the right man for the job. And I never doubted that he would have a tremendously positive effect on the growth and development of Jalen Milroe running the offense after what we’ve seen him do for the likes of Michael Penix Jr. 

My major concern with Alabama is actually on the defensive side of the ball, as wild as that feels to put on the page. After big losses in the draft and with Caleb Downs leaving in the transfer portal, DeBoer and his staff were able to make some nice adds. However, the experience isn’t there and it’s hard not to think that Saban’s side of the ball won’t see some sort of downturn, even if only a slight one. The SEC in its current state is a league of slight margins, though, which could possibly limit the Tide’s ceiling. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 4-3

4. Oregon Ducks

We honestly might not talk enough about the job Dan Lanning has done in relatively short order with the Oregon Ducks. Though they failed to get Bo Nix and an electric group across the CFP and Pac-12 finish line last year, the program has leveled up once again and is now considered one of the top four contenders for a national championship this year, for good reason to. 

Dillon Gabriel coming to Eugene to wrap up his illustrious college career is going to be huge, especially with former UCLA 5-star Dante Moore backing him up. But Lanning didn’t stop there, also adding the likes of Evan Stewart and even more on defense. This team is stout in the trenches, perhaps one of the best in the nation, and the Ducks could challenge to win a loaded Big Ten in their first season in the conference. It’d also be a stunner if they weren’t in the Playoff when the season’s said and done. 

3. Texas Longhorns

The recent loss of C.J. Baxter for the season is a tough blow for the Texas Longhorns but, at the same time, it speaks to the depth and talent of the roster in Austin that Steve Sarkisian has constructed. Quinn Ewers returns and, though he needs to finally take a full leap forward, he remains one of the most talented quarterbacks in the sport. Beyond that, the Longhorns have one of the best offensive lines as well and used the portal wisely to keep adding to the roster. 

The likes of Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden should be huge for the offense while Trey Moore is primed for stardom coming over from UTSA. This team is stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and Texas’ foray in the SEC should immediately see them as one of the best in the conference and, in turn, the country. 

College football rankings 2024, Projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 2-1

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Lane Kiffin may call himself the Portal King but Ryan Day might be the Portal Usurper after this past offseason. After another year of falling short against Michigan and, thus, in the College Football Playoff race, Ohio State wasn’t about to stand pat and let it happen again. Kyle McCord got the boot in favor of Will Howard and former 5-star Julian Sayin, which should be an upgrade no matter who takes the reins, especially with Chip Kelly taking over the offense as he comes from UCLA. 

The defense has been humming and returned a lot of possible NFL Draft departures while adding Caleb Downs. Then, if that weren’t enough, the Buckeyes also added Quinshon Judkins to pair with TreVeyon Henderson in the backfield. Oh, and No. 1 recruit Jeremiah Smith somehow could be an immediate replacement for Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State checks every box and most people would say it’s between them and the projected No. 1 team as to who wins a natty this season. 

1. Georgia Bulldogs

After being the preseason No. 1 team in college football a year ago, the Georgia Bulldogs almost entirely lived up to that, completing a flawless regular season but then seeing their then-29-game winning streak get snapped in the SEC Championship Game with another Kirby Smart loss to Nick Saban. That’s obviously something the Dawgs won’t have to worry about moving forward and that could be bad news for the rest of the country in the 2024 campaign. 

Carson Beck returns to Athens to helm the offense after a phenomenal first season as the starter behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, one of the better wide receiver corps in the country and with a defense littered with likely Top 100 picks. They are the rightful favorites to win a national championship this season, even in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, which makes sense for a team you might be able to count their weaknesses on one finger – and even that might be difficult.