5 college football teams most likely to fall outside AP Top 25 from preseason poll

With the AP Top 25 Poll being released on Monday afternoon, college football fans like myself have so many interesting things to talk about. Whether it be who is overrated or underrated, who should have gotten a nod but didn't, how many teams should have been ranked ahead of Alabama, or who is the biggest pretender currently inside the top 10, your boy has you scattered, smothered and covered!

Until the College Football Playoff Selection Committee meets in November in the Greater DFW area, the AP Top 25 Poll will be our guiding light for covering the sport. One of the best parts about this season is even with all the conference realignment upon us, we seem to have a pretty good feel as to who will be good, who will be bad, and who will be downright ugly. Some will hate to admit the latter...

So what I am going to do today is outline five teams that I think are currently ranked inside the top 25 that I think have a fairly good chance of not being part of it at season's end. Again, I could be totally wrong in this. All five of these teams could make the expanded playoff for all I know. What is important to understand is we have games to play, and that is what will ultimately decide what teams are top 25.

Let's start with a team I like a lot, but question if last year was a fluke based on several major factors.

5. No. 21 Arizona Wildcats

It pains me to put the Arizona Wildcats here, but I feel that I kind of have to. Yes, they are, right now, one of seven or so teams in the new Big 12 I think could get to Arlington and make the expanded College Football Playoff as a Power Four champion and an automatic qualifier. I love their quarterback/wide receiver tandem of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, who both decided to stay.

And for as much as I believe in their new head coach Brent Brennan as well, there is no denying what Jedd Fisch did last year in Tuscon. Had he stayed at U of A, I would have the Wildcats as a very strong contender to win the new Big 12, as opposed to being in the same group of teams as Kansas and Oklahoma State, who I think could win the Big 12, but I am not going to put any of my money on them.

There's a chance Arizona is the seventh-best team in the league behind Iowa State and West Virginia.

4. No. 9 Michigan Wolverines

It almost feels mean at this point, but there is no greater regression candidate in the Power Two this year than Michigan. The Wolverines lost so much talent, particularly on the offensive of the ball, as well as one departure after another to their coaching staff. I may like Sherrone Moore's upside as a head coach to some degree, but I am skeptical of if we have seen the best out of Wink Martindale.

Oh, no doubt, the Michigan defense is going to be absolutely stellar with guys like Mason Graham and Will Johnson at the forefront of it. My biggest concern with this team, besides being the hunted across college football, is the fact that Alex Orji is the starting quarterback replacing J.J. McCarthy. This was the fourth-best team in the Big Ten, according to the AP. It may be closer to sixth or seventh.

Michigan could stay in the top 25 throughout the season, but I cannot see them back in the playoff.

3. No. 19 Miami Hurricanes

There may not be a team currently inside the top 25 that offers greater variance than the Miami Hurricanes. On paper, they should be one of the four best teams in the new ACC, along with Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina State. Gaining the former Pacific Northwest Step Brothers in Cam Ward and Damien Martinez in the portal should have all of Coral Gables buzzing about the Hurricanes.

Unfortunately, Mario Cristobal is still their head coach. He can recruit and develop offensive linemen, but I am not sure he could spell his given name if you gave him all five letters. He faces so much pressure this season to get it done at his alma mater. More importantly, Miami has been a sit-down football program ever since leaving the old Big East for the ACC. They cannot be trusted whatsoever.

Miami has made a killing of entering the season ranked and exiting it with nothing but headaches.

2. No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies

There is a lot to like about this year's Texas A&M team, but there are also some real concerns. They have the schedule to potentially go 10-2 and crash the playoff party, but they could also continue being the 7-5 version of themselves. To me, this feels like an 8-4 team with a chance to go 9-3 or better if they defeat Notre Dame at home in Week 1. I love the Mike Elko hire, but I know this team...

The Aggies are far enough down inside the AP Top 25 where if they start off slow and lose a few games before November, there is next to no shot that they can get back inside of it. Oh no doubt, they will upset someone of significance. Then again, they also have it in them to lose to somebody they have no business losing to. At the end of the day, I don't trust Texas A&M and neither should you.

I could be proven wrong here, but I need to see more out of Conner Weigman before I ever go all-in.

1. No. 16 Oklahoma Sooners

Much has been made about how brutal the Florida Gators' season schedule is entering the season. I want you to take a look at what Oklahoma has to navigate during its first season in the SEC. I ended up settling on them being an 8-4 team, but there is a real chance this team can go 6-6. They don't catch very many breaks with their schedule, and I wonder how smooth of an SEC transition it will be.

The upside with Jackson Arnold at quarterback is very real and very palpable. However, I now fully understand why longtime Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione gave head coach Brent Venables that mega extension long before he needed to. This year might be rough for the Sooners. This is all about trying to build on the successes of last season, but that was over in the old Big 12.

Oklahoma was not a reluctant partner in switching leagues, but they are behind Texas in doing so.