College football rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after Arch Manning arrives, Georgia survives in Week 3

Many fans looked at the lack of great college football matchups within the AP Top 25 rankings and probably thought that this was going to be a dull week. And while we may not have gotten any shocking upsets this time around, we certainly had plenty of action to keep an eye on, including the true debut of Arch Manning with the Texas Longhorns.

Beyond the wunderkind in Austin getting his first real taste of game action, though, we also saw the Georgia Bulldogs get tested meaningfully by a Kentucky Wildcats team they were projected to blow out, we saw the Missouri Tigers get into a fistfight in one of the few ranked-on-ranked matchups of the day against the Boston College Eagles, and we also saw teams like Oklahoma, Utah and LSU, among others, have more trouble than anyone expected.

The dust has settled now, though, and we can move forward to what appears to be a loaded Week 4. But before we do that, the AP Top 25 college football rankings have to come out. What will the latest NCAAF rankings look like, though? We have our projections after the week that was.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 25-21

25. Memphis Tigers

Let me be clear — I'm not overly rewarding the Memphis Tigers for beating a Florida State team that might just be flat-out bad this season, though it doesn't hurt their case either with a Power 4 victory under their belts. Having said that, Memphis was already on the cusp of the AP Top 25 last week and now moved to 3-0 on the year in pretty hearty fashion. The Tigers look like the class of the American right now and a leading contender to make earn that College Football Playoff berth.

24. Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois might not be the flashiest team that we've ever seen in college football but they are clearly a group that knows how to go out there and get the job done. After knocking off Kansas last week but failing to crack the AP Top 25, they followed it up with a decisive win over Central Michigan. They'll get in this week, setting up a fascinating matchup next week as the Illini go on the road to Lincoln for a date with Nebraska.

23. Northern Illinois Huskies

It's probably a good thing for Northern Illinois that, after upsetting Notre Dame last week, they had a bye because head coach Thomas Hammock was all over the media landscape this week and seemingly not spending nearly as much time with his team. The Huskies will open their MAC schedule next week as they host Buffalo but NIU is clearly much more of threat in the always-entertaining conference than we expected coming into the season.

22. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Last week's emotional win over longtime rival Colorado surely set Nebraska up for a potential letdown spot this week but the good news for Dylan Raiola and the Cornhuskers was that it was Northern Iowa on the schedule this week. The true freshman signal-caller again looked the part, throwing for 247 yards and two scores, though with a pick, but it's the Huskers defense that still looks like it might be this team's calling card as they continue to ascend in the college football world once again.

21. Clemson Tigers

You'd be hard-pressed to find more incongruence than the Clemson Tigers have shown through their first two games. To open the season, they got their heads kicked in by Georgia in Atlanta. Dabo Swinney's team then followed that up by hanging 66 on Appalachian State last week before having Week 3 off. The matchup next week against NC State looks far more feasible than it might've coming into the year but it feels safe to say we still have little idea exactly what Clemson is in 2024.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 20-16

20. Iowa State Cyclones

With the Cy-Hawk Trophy in tow, the Iowa State Cyclones got a well-deserved week off. After what we saw form Iowa's offense on Saturday against Troy, however, there is some reason to doubt just what the ceiling of Matt Campbell's team might be. But at the end of the day, they picked up a massive win that they direly needed and should have a runway to an extremely hot stat with a more than manageable schedule lying ahead.

19. Louisville Cardinals

One of many teams in the Top 25 who had Week 3 off, I’m still not entirely sure how much we know about Louisville. What we can say is that Jeff Brohm looks like he has revived Tyler Shough’s career, at least against the likes of Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. But we’ll get a better picture of just how good the Cardinals are and how much their success from last year will continue as they face Georgia Tech and Notre Dame in the next two weeks.

18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Do you think that Notre Dame was possibly trying to send a message after last week’s upset loss to Northern Illinois? Purdue probably thinks so after the Irish came to West Lafayette and dropped 66 on the Boilermakers. It was the game the Fighting Irish absolutely needed from Riley Leonard and Co. while the defense more than did their job once again as well. But with how things have gone for Marcus Freeman, it’s now about doing this consistently.

17. Michigan Wolverines

One week after getting the doors of the Big House blown off by Texas, the best thing I can say is that Michigan won on Saturday and they ran the ball well. However, the Wolverines also only beat a pretty abysmal Arkansas State team 28-18 and the quarterback issues were as bad as ever. With USC coming to town next week, I do wonder if this will be the last week we see Sherrone Moore’s team in the Top 25.

16. LSU Tigers

Playing in Columbia against a South Carolina team with a defense that looks legit, LSU ultimately avoided the upset. And to be sure, the Tigers deserve credit for climbing back from a 17-0 early deficit to get the 36-33 win. However, Blake Baker’s defense hasn’t fixed last year’s issues, clearly, and this team might be in for a rude awakening as they get into the true heart of SEC play this year.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 15-11

15. Oklahoma Sooners

Two things can be true. On one hand, Oklahoma did its job and picked up a 34-19 win against Tulane on Saturday afternoon, which is what they needed to do. On the other hand, however, the Sooners continue to look perhaps a bit fraudulent and have simply faced teams unable to fully take advantage of that. Jackson Arnold continues to struggle under pressure, the defense has shown lapses, and the O-line is an issue. Facing Tennessee next week, my radar is up for OU to potentially get exposed.

14. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Given how an Arkansas team who found themselves being pushed by UAB this week pushed Oklahoma State in double overtime last week, who knew what was going to happen with the Pokes visiting Tulsa on Saturday. What happened was a dominant five-touchdown effort from Alan Bowman in a 45-10 blowout for the Cowboys. However, in the long-term outlook, one has to wonder what happened to the dominant Ollie Gordon II of last season.

13. Utah Utes

One thing that Utah made very clear on Saturday in their eventual 38-21 win over Utah State is that Kyle Whittingham’s team direly needs Cam Rising on the field. As the starter sat out with a hand laceration, this game was much closer than the final score indicated, including falling behind 14-3 early. Rising should be back next week to face Oklahoma State but the fragility of the Utes was certainly on display this week.

12. Kansas State Wildcats

Through the first two weeks, there were all kinds of questions about the Kansas State Wildcats, especially coming into a Friday night showdown with Arizona. As it turns out, Chris Klieman might’ve just been holding some of his punches. Avery Johnson had a breakout game, particularly as a runner with over 100 yards on the ground, as the Wildcats rolled over, well, the other Wildcats. But you have to feel a lot better about K-State’s Big 12 title hopes after seeing that type of effort.

11. USC Trojans

On the heels of knocking off LSU in primetime to start their season, USC more than passed the test a week ago by blanking Utah State in a 48-0 rout, which led into their bye this week. For as good as Miller Moss has looked as the new starting quarterback, though, the defense has shown dramatic improvement. But even then, there’s another big test looming with a trip to the Big House to face Michigan next week. 

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 10-9

10. Miami Hurricanes

Who could possibly say if the Miami Hurricanes were dead-set on avoiding a scare from a MAC team like last week or if Mario Cristobal’s team is just that damn good but, after a lengthy weather delay pushed this game into the night on the east coast, the Canes completely dismantled Ball State. Sure, the Cardinals might be a lower-tier team in the MAC but that doesn’t take away from how damn good The U looked. 

When the final tally was taken, Miami notched a dominant 62-0 win as Cam Ward continued his electric start to his time in Coral Gables. The Wazzu transfer, before taking a rest late, came up with 346 yards passing with five touchdowns and didn’t even have to use his legs in this dominant effort. The Hurricanes continue to look like the unquestionable class of the ACC right now and they might run away and hide with the automatic bid to the Playoff. 

9. Oregon Ducks

By all accounts, it looked like a trouble spot for the Oregon Ducks. The first two weeks of the season for Dan Lanning’s team included a 10-point win over Idaho and needing a walk-off field goal to beat Bosie State in Eugene, so heading to Corvallis to play rival Oregon State appeared like it could be a make-or-break spot for the Ducks. And now that the game has been played, it was make for Oregon. 

Dillon Gabriel looked by far the most comfortable he has in Will Stein’s offense to date, tearing up the Beavers defense any way he saw fit as he ended the 49-14 win 294 passing yards, 64 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. But perhaps the best thing to witness for the Ducks was the defense stepping up, albeit against a potentially low-upside group, after Oregon State was moving the ball early to hold firm throughout the rest of the game and leave no doubt. It was exactly what Oregon needed to do in this matchup. 

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 8-7

8. Penn State Nittany Lions

Given the scare that Bowling Green gave the Penn State Nittany Lions a week ago, perhaps an off week was exactly what the doctor ordered for James Franklin’s team. Perhaps the most surprising part of that shockingly close contest was the fact that Drew Allar and the offense, overall, continued to look much-improved under new OC Andy Kotelnicki but the vaunted and uber-talented defense showed some warts that were, frankly, unforeseen. 

The good news for the Nittany Lions is that, out of the bye, they’ll have another surefire tuneup game against a Kent State team that figures to be one of the worst in the country for the second consecutive season before diving into Big Ten play. One thing that’s for sure, though, is that they need the offense to continue to cook but the defense to be steadier if Penn State wants to reach its goals for the season, namely the College Football Playoff. 

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Even in a number of FBS vs. FCS where the outcome is decided early, there might still be some doubt after the first quarter. That was not the case on Saturday evening, however, with the Tennessee Volunteers hosting Kent State. The Golden Flashes looked more like a dud firework as Nico Iamaleava, Dylan Sampson and this high-powered Josh Heupel offense put the work on them to where they were already beat into submission after 15 minutes of play. 

It was 37-0 after the first quarter in favor of the Vols and it only got worse from there. In that type of game, are we really going to learn all that much about Tennessee that we didn’t already learn after they blasted NC State last week? Probably not. But this team continues to look like a juggernaut with all of the offensive firepower now being combined with what appears to be one of the better defenses in the country. 

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 6-5

6. Missouri Tigers

After skunking both Murray State and Buffalo by a combined score of 89-0, the level of competition ramped up quickly for Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri Tigers on Saturday with an upstart Boston College team landing in Columbia and ready for a fight. And it seemed early on like Mizzou didn’t know how to react to getting hit in the mouth as the team fell behind 14-3 early in the second quarter. From there, however, the Tigers found what they needed. 

Luther Burden III had a monster day, hauling in six Brady Cook passes for 117 yards and Cook’s lone touchdown pass of the day. Perhaps more importantly, the Missouri defense clamped down after a slow start against a tough matchup in the mobile Thomas Castellanos. Vanderbilt next week might also be a more difficult test than previously imagined but perhaps it will better prepare Mizzou for the likes of Texas A&M, Auburn and Alabama that all loom in October. 

5. Ole Miss Rebels

The first two weeks of the college football season saw Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss Rebels just completely eviscerate teams who simply didn't belong on the field with them. Furman received a 76-point loss while MTSU wasn't much better last week, falling 52-3 to the Rebs. But on Saturday, Ole Miss had to go on the road to Winston Salem for their first Power 4 opponent of the year, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

While Jaxson Dart and the offense weren't quite as prolific as we'd seen him in the previous matchups on the schedule, the Rebels still made light work of Wake. Miami transfer Henry Parrish Jr. continued to look like a monster with 148 yards and two touchdowns and the defense was shutdown against the Deacs as well. It'll be a minute before Ole Miss faces a real test but they look up for the challenge to this point.

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 4-3

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

We’ll start with a caveat that it’s hard to say what Saturday’s game with the Alabama Crimson Tide visiting Wisconsin at Camp Randall would’ve looked like if the Badgers’ starting quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, had not left the game early in the first quarter with a knee injury. But this is football and that happens. So for the part of Kalen DeBoer’s team, they more than passed the test in one of the tougher road environments outside of the SEC. 

Bama handed Wisconsin its worst road loss in nearly two decades on Saturday, 42-10, as the defense took advantage of a backup quarterback consistently while Jalen Milroe torched the Badgers. The Heisman candidate was the team’s leading passer and rusher, accounting for five total touchdowns before making way for Ty Simpson. Now heading into the bye week, though, do we really know if the Tide are ready for Georgia to come to Tuscaloosa? We’ll find out definitively in two weeks. 

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

We didn’t get to see the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 3 as Ryan Day’s team had a bye on Saturday before they welcome Marshall to The Shoe in one week. But it’s hard to look at what OSU has done in its first two games and not think that this team is already ready to face some of the steeper competition on their schedule. Sure, it was Akron and Western Michigan, but a combined score of 108-6 is what it is. 

It’s going to be interesting to watch the ebbs and flows of the Buckeyes season, particularly right now. The level of competition ramps up quickly for them after the first five games of the season. They have the aforementioned Marshall contest before going on the road to face an erratic Michigan State and then hosting a lifeless Iowa offense (what a refrain). But immediately after, they face Oregon on the road, Nebraska at home, and Penn State on the road in three consecutive games. That’s when we’ll really see what Ohio State is made of. 

Projected AP Top 25 rankings after Week 3: No. 2-1

2. Texas Longhorns

Losing Quinn Ewers to an abdominal injury in a blowout win over UTSA was certainly not what the doctor ordered for the Texas Longhorns. For as good as Arch Manning looked right away against the Roadrunners, he doesn’t have the seasoned experience of Ewers that this team was banking on to make a deep run in the College Football Playoff. As such, the veteran quarterback’s health, unfortunately for the third straight year, is going to be a huge storyline to monitor. 

As mentioned, though, UTSA was little match for the Longhorns in this game, even with a shorthanded roster beyond just Ewers. They jumped out to a big lead and, while there were some speedbumps after Arch’s hot start given his lack of reps in live-game action, this roster is so talented that they can easily handle the likes of UTSA. However, the updates on Ewers will be crucial for Texas’ overall outlook for the rest of the year. 

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Suffice it to say that Saturday's trip to Lexington wasn't the game that many were expecting from the Georgia Bulldogs. After all, Kentucky got rocked by South Carolina last week, so what was to stop the Dawgs from coming into their house and doing the same? But perhaps we should've expected it given the troubles and sleepy evenings aplenty that Kirby Smart has had going to Mark Stoops' house in recent years.

The main thing is that Georgia survived and, frankly, moving them down from the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25 would be a massive overreaction. Is it more likely that Georgia is actually in danger of being beat by teams like Kentucky regularly or that they didn't want to show all that much in this game before a bye week and then traveling to Tuscaloosa? The latter seems far more reasonable and that's what I'm rolling with.