Red Flags: 5 college football teams to put on upset alert in Week 1

We didn't even make it to Week 1 and a full slate of games before the first major college football upset of the 2024 season came to us. The luck of the Irish clearly didn't apply to the No. 10-ranked Florida State Seminoles as Mike Norvell's team was upended by Georgia Tech in Dublin. One ranked team has played and one ranked team has gone down. The upset alert sirens are already blaring throughout the country.

So what does that mean for the potential upsets we'll see in Week 1 of the 2024 college football season?

It's a big slate of games on deck for Week 1 and it should breed a ton of excitement. However, sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you came here looking for me to say that No. 1 Georgia is on upset alert in Atlanta as they face off with No. 14 Clemson. Could an upset happen? Sure. But my money is on the Dawgs just being that much better. And as for another marquee game, No. 7 Notre Dame is already an underdog against No. 20 Texas A&M, so we're taking that out of the equation.

But have no fear, the red flags are still flying in Week 1 of the season. So let's highlight them and dive into our college football upset picks for the week with five ranked teams who have a real chance of falling.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 Upset Picks Record: 0-0

5. Penn State Nittany Lions

Opponent: at West Virginia | Time: Saturday, Aug. 31, Noon ET (FOX) | Spread: PSU -8.5

We saw this matchup a year ago in Happy Valley with Penn State submitting one of its most impressive performances of the season, especially so given how formidable West Virginia ultimately proved to be. However, it was also misleading in regards to some of what we saw from the Nittany Lions as well, which is why an upset feels in pay for the No. 8-ranked team in the country in Week 1.

Drew Allar threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns against the Mountaineers last year. Throughout the rest of the season, though, the former 5-star recruit showed far more warts than many expected. The hope is that new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will spark Allar and the rest of the offense but, as is the case with any coaching change, that's not a guarantee -- especially when West Virginia's defense should be improved as well.

West Virginia is a quality team, one that should finish in the top-third of the Big 12 if things go right. Penn State is markedly better still. And yet, with this game in the never-friendly confines of Morgantown and with the questions about the Nittany Lions, we can't remotely rule out the possibility of an upset.

4. Miami Hurricanes

Opponent: at Florida | Time: Saturday, Aug. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: MIA -2.5

So much oxygen has been spent on the Florida Gators being doomed this season. But so much of that oxygen has been burned because of what Billy Napier's team faces in terms of their schedule, specifically a stretch at the end of the season that would make Sisyphus say "that's a tough job". All of that is warranted, as is Napier's inclusion as a hot seat candidate. What it shouldn't overshadow, however, is that this isn't a bad Florida roster.

For as bad as the Gators roster isn't, though, Miami's probably should be considered the strongest in the ACC with the way Mario Cristobal has recruited and after transfer portal additions like Cam Ward and Damien Martinez. This team should be the favorite to win its conference and should, on paper, be able to roll through Florida. But again, Mario Cristobal is the head coach.

Routinely, we've seen Cristobal's teams at Oregon previously and now Miami underperform relative to talent and expectations. So why would anyone be sure that this is the year we see that trend change?

It would be so perfectly Cristobal-ian for The U to go on the road to Gainesville in Week 1 -- which is no easy environment to play in for a visiting team -- and get clipped by an in-state rival that isn't as talented and that has far worse vibes entering the season. Florida is talented enough, particularly early in the year when their depth is less likely to be tested, to pull that off, and the line for this game only furthers the belief of how possible an upset truly is in this spot.

3. Florida State Seminoles

Opponent: Boston College | Time: Monday, Sept. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Spread: FSU -16.5

I promise I'm not trying to pick on Florida State here (or really the ACC in the state of Florida given Miami coming immediately before this), but we've already seen the Seminoles go down against an unranked conference opponent. Who's to say that lightning couldn't strike twice in a painful way for Norvell's team?

When you look at what went wrong for FSU in the loss to Georgia Tech over in Dublin, the two things that stood out were an offense led by D.J. Uiagalelei that was incapable of being anything more than vanilla because of the quarterback play and a defense filled with numerous transfer portal additions that got pushed around in the trenches and was susceptible to the run.

Now look at Boston College, a team that has arguably the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in the ACC, Thomas Castellanos, working behind a solid O-line and under the direction of new head coach Bill O'Brien, one of the more respected offensive minds in college football.

This line might be more than two touchdowns coming into Week 1 but perhaps it shouldn't be. Given what we saw in Florida State's first upset loss, there are some indicators that Boston College might be able to at least somewhat replicate that formula and, at minimum, put another scare into the Noles.

2. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Opponent: South Dakota State | Time: Saturday, Aug. 31, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN+) | Spread: OSU -9.5

On the back of Ollie Gordon II returning for another season in Stillwater, Oklahoma State could very well be live to win the new-look Big 12. They were in that fight just a year ago and now return their star running back, Alan Bowman at quarterback, a strong receiving corps, and four of the five starters on the offensive line to go with a solid defense.

But South Dakota State isn't a cakewalk FCS opponent for anyone. The Jackrabbits have won 29 straight games that led them to back-to-back FCS national championships. What's more, they return Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronwoski at quarterback, who could cause the Cowboys defense a ton of problems with his dual-threat ability against a defensive front that struggled to consistently force the issue for opponents last season.

Perhaps more crucially, we've seen Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy deliver some head-scratchers over the years, especially in non-conference play. After all, this team lost by 26 points to South Alabama last year and was blown out by UCF by 42 points in conference play. So in Week 1 against an FCS opponent they could, at least in theory, underestimate, there are some warning signs.

Gundy has yet to lose a game to an FCS opponent in 15 tries since taking over in Stillwater. But hey, there's a first time for everything, right?

1. LSU Tigers

Opponent: 23 USC | Time: Sunday, Sept. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) | Spread: LSU -4.5

For my money, both the LSU Tigers and USC Trojans are potential College Football Playoff contenders this season, so it's definitely a treat for fans of the sport that we get a standalone matchup on Sunday night between these two. But as Brian Kelly's squad comes into the game as the higher-ranked team and the favorite, that naturally means they're in danger of getting upset.

Despite LSU bringing in new defensive coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri and USC filling the same role on its staff with D'Anton Lynn, I don't expect the improvements those hires should breed to be all the way realized in Week 1 of the season -- especially against two offenses that, even after losing the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, should be able to keep cooking.

Frankly, I forecast this as a shootout, one where stops are at a premium and both teams just light up the scoreboard with free-flowing offense and plethora of explosive plays. That type of contest inherently lends itself to chaos in itself, which could lead to an upset. But more importantly, I have more faith in Lincoln Riley's offense with Miller Moss at the helm to gameplan this up enough to push ahead and pull off the upset, even if narrowly.