Cubs must decide between contending and the future with ideal Cody Bellinger replacement

The Chicago Cubs are stuck between a rock and a hard place. This season has been undeniably disappointing. At 45-49, Chicago is dead last in the NL Central. Craig Counsell's first season as manager has been rife with poor judgement and underperformance. And now, Cody Bellinger has been placed on the 10-day IL with a fractured finger.

Bellinger suffered the injury in the Cubs' victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday. A high, inside fastball raked his knuckles and sent the centerfielder walking toward the dugout in pain. Never a great sign.

What makes this situation particularly tricky, however, is that Chicago has not picked a direction ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. If the Cubs decide to sell and smash the reset button, Bellinger would be a trade chip — at least in theory. He needs to be on the active roster for that. If Chicago decides to buy, well, they're in last place. Within reach of the Wild Card in a weak National League, sure, but four teams sit ahead of Cubs... in their own division.

The Cubs just swept the O's. Jed Hoyer could take Chicago's perked up numbers over the last week as a sign of sustainable growth. Or, he could view it as too little too late. The Cubs' trade deadline strategy could be made clear by how the front office handles fielding Bellinger's replacement, especially if he's forced to miss more than his initial 10-day window.

Cubs' Cody Bellinger replacement could hint at trade deadline direction

Chicago has a few viable options here. There are the in-house backups — 24-year-old Alexander Canario and 22-year-old Pete Crow-Armstrong — and there is the newly minted waiver-wire option. The Toronto Blue Jays left 34-year-old Kevin Kiermaier on the cutting room floor Thursday afternoon, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. If the Cubs claim the $4.5 million left on his one-year contract, Kiermaier could immediately step into the Cubs' ailing lineup.

There's a right option, of course. Or perhaps more accurately, there's a wrong option. Kiermaier is an accomplished player. He's a perfect Cub on paper, the owner of four Gold Glove awards in centerfield. Chicago has built its reputation on elite defense. But, Kiermaier has been the worst of the aforementioned trio by a considerable margin this season. He has a compelling resumé and there's always a chance he benefits from a change of scenery, but the numbers paint a grim portrait.

Kiermaier is slashing .183/.232/.290 with three home runs and 13 RBI across 169 ABs. Those are straight-up worse numbers than Chicago's young guns at the MLB level this season, so there's hardly any justification for taking the "experienced" route — even if the Cubs decide to stand pat and compete for the playoffs.

The true battle is between Canario and PCA. Both are talented prospects with real stakes in Chicago's future. PCA is the Cubs' No. 1 prospect, but he's also less polished offensively. He has struggled at this plate this season (.200/.247/.293) compared to Canario (.273/.360/.455), although Crow-Armstrong has seen almost seven times as many MLB plate appearances.

Canario is probably the "safe" bet. He is going to swing the bat more effectively and give Chicago a bit of slugging in Bellinger's absence. PCA is far less disciplined or powerful at the plate. If the Cubs opt to prioritize development, however — if the goal posts shift to the future — then it could be wise to recall PCA and increase his experience level against MLB pitching. The more reps under his belt, the sooner Crow-Armstrong can deliver as advertised offensively. That's the dream, at least, for Cubs fans.

In the end, Chicago probably rolls with Canario. He received the initial call-up corresponding with Bellinger's IL designation, and PCA has been relegated to the periphery after an ice-cold few months. It's all very unfortunate. Hopefully Bellinger can recover quickly, whether it's to keep the Cubs' postseason hopes alive or to help a different team finish the campaign strong.