First Pitch: Mets should take inspiration from other surprise contenders in 2024 pennant run

When the New York Mets began the 2024 campaign by losing each of their first five games, many ruled them out already. When they fell to a season-worst 11 games under .500 on June 2, even more MLB fans counted them out. Even FanGraphs essentially ruled them out, giving the Mets slim 7.9 percent odds to make the postseason after that. It's safe to say that they have rebounded quite nicely since then.

Whether it's due to a team meeting, OMG or Grimace, this Mets team has pulled itself essentially from the dead to prime position to make the postseason. Their 79.9 percent odds of making the postseason are a season-high, and if they can win two of three in their upcoming series against the Atlanta Braves, they'll get in without even needing to play any of their final three games.

It's been a great run seeing this Mets team compete and give themselves the best possible chance to make the postseason, but the goal shouldn't be just to get in. This Mets team has the ingredients to make a deep run and be the 2024 version of what teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers were able to do in the past two years.

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Starting pitching has proven to be a major Mets strength even without Kodai Senga

This Mets team was built around the expectation that Kodai Senga would have a repeat of his outstanding rookie season. They took one-year flyers on guys like Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, but the rotation was really built around Senga as the team's ace and go-to arm. Unfortunately, Senga has barely been involved.

A shoulder injury knocked Senga out of action before the regular season began and kept him out until right before the trade deadline. The right-hander would return for a crucial game against the Braves, allow two runs in 5.1 dominant innings, and then strain his calf running after a pop-up. The Mets hoped he'd be able to return before the regular season ended, but a setback following his latest rehab start negated that. Now, they have to hope he'll be able to pitch sometime in the postseason if they can get there.

Somehow, even with just one Senga start, this Mets rotation has been stellar, and has gotten progressively better as the season has gone on. They enter Tuesday's action ranked 12th in the majors with a 3.89 SP ERA, but they've really pitched even better than that, particularly lately.

Since June 1, the Mets rank third in the majors with a 3.63 SP ERA. Since July 1, they have led the majors with a 3.36 SP ERA. In the month of September, they also lead the majors with a sparkling 2.28 SP ERA.

Sean Manaea has pitched like an ace, pitching to a 2.63 ERA since July 30, going at least 6.2 innings in 10 of his 11 starts in that span. Luis Severino is as healthy as he's been in a half-decade, making 30 starts for New York thus far and posting a 2.64 ERA in his last seven. David Peterson has been a welcome surprise, posting a 3.08 ERA in his 20 starts this season.

Jose Quintana, a pitcher who looked lost for much of the year, has thrown the ball as well as he has in a while, allowing one earned run in his last five starts spanning 32.2 innings pitched. That's a 0.28 ERA for those keeping score. Even Tylor Megill, a pitcher banished to the minor leagues, has a 1.78 ERA in five starts since replacing the injured Paul Blackburn in their rotation.

A Mets postseason rotation consisting of Manaea, Severino, Peterson and Quintana with Senga looming might not be sexy on paper, but with how they've pitched, they're as good as any staff in the majors. The postseason is all about who is hot at the right time, and this rotation is hot right now.

The Mets bullpen has come together at the perfect time

For much of the 2024 campaign, the Mets bullpen was their No. 1 Achilles heel. Part of the reason was overuse, thanks to starting pitchers being unable to go deep into games in the first half of the season. Part of the reason was also season-ending injuries to key relievers such as Drew Smith and Brooks Raley. Now, the bullpen appears better than ever even with guys like Dedniel Nunez and Sean Reid-Foley on the shelf.

As we saw in their series against the Phillies, Edwin Diaz might just be back to his 2022 self. He has allowed just one earned run in 11.1 September innings with 21 strikeouts. He has thrown his fastball more, and he appears to be as confident with that pitch as he has since 2022.

Reed Garrett has hit his stride in the second half of the season and has not allowed an earned run in his last 11.2 innings of work. Jose Butto has been a force out of the bullpen, posting a 2.08 ERA in 22 innings of relief with the capability of covering more than one inning. Danny Young has struggled of late, but has still held left-handed hitters to a .505 OPS this season. Phil Maton has an ERA barely over 2.00 since being acquired at the trade deadline.

The bullpen is still far from perfect, but it appears to be in better shape now than it has for much of the season. Bullpens are crucial in October, and the Mets might just have enough there to finish games.

Struggling hitters are starting to come around for the Mets

For much of this season, the Mets have been carried almost completely by Francisco Lindor. There's a reason he was considered a legitimate NL MVP candidate by some before suffering his back injury.

The Mets finding a way to win games without Lindor has a lot to do with their pitching, obviously, but other hitters who have struggled have really stepped up lately.

Brandon Nimmo, a player who was one of the biggest snubs from the NL All-Star team, was going through one of the worst slumps of his career before picking it up lately. The hits haven't come in bunches yet, but Nimmo has hit four home runs and driven in 12 in his last nine games, proving to be an integral part of the middle of the Mets order.

Francisco Alvarez had struggled so mightily in July and August to the point where starting him was not wise. He has rebounded completely in September, though, as evidenced by his 167 WRC+. He leads the Mets with five home runs this month and trails only Nimmo with 14 RBI compared to Nimmo's 15.

Even Pete Alonso, a player Mets fans have bashed routinely in what could be his final season in Queens, has stepped it up in September, posting a 135 WRC+ in September and a 139 WRC+ in the second half. He has been arguably the Mets' most consistent player in the second half other than Lindor and the now-injured Jeff McNeil.

Having guys like Nimmo, Alvarez and Alonso step up, particularly with Lindor out has been huge for the Mets, and it lengthens their lineup a ton. Once Lindor is healthy enough to return, this lineup that already ranks second in the majors in WRC+ since June 1 and third in runs scored gets that much better, and it's thanks to other struggling hitters finally stepping up.

Mets have been among the best team in baseball for a prolonged stretch

The Mets ended the month of May with a 24-33 record, sitting in fourth place in the NL East and with virtually no momentum. Since June 1, they've gone 63-36, the best mark in baseball. Since July 1, the Mets are 47-28, the third-best mark in baseball. Since August 1, they've gone 30-18, the fourth-best team in the majors. Since September 1, they've gone 15-5, the best mark in the league. They've gone 6-1 in their last seven games without Francisco Lindor including taking three of four against the first-place Phillies.

At this point, this Mets team shouldn't be viewed as a surprise. They've been among the best teams in baseball in each of the last four months. They hold the best record in baseball since June 1. They haven't just come out of nowhere, they've been among the league's elite for months.

The postseason is often dictated by whoever is playing the best. Were the 84-win Diamondbacks really the best all-around team in the National League in 2023? Were the 90-win Texas Rangers who had to settle for a Wild Card spot really the best team in the majors in 2023? They won the World Series, after all.

The answer to both, very clearly, was no. It's all about the teams that play well at the right time. This Mets team is not the best in the majors on paper, but they've been the best team in baseball for months now, and have also been the best team in baseball this month. They have the long-term and short-term success to give fans reason to believe that if they can get in, they're more than capable of making a deep run.