First Pitch: Why Astros should remove most accomplished pitcher from playoff rotation

The Houston Astros entered Monday's series opener against the Cincinnati Reds riding high, victors of five straight games including a four-game sweep over the Kansas City Royals, to increase their lead in the AL West.

They appeared poised to push that winning streak to six facing a Reds team out of postseason contention and with Justin Verlander on the mound, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Verlander struggled for a second straight start, allowing five runs on eight hits and four walks in just 4.2 innings pitched against a Reds team that entered the game eight games under .500.

This poor outing emphasized what many Astros fans already know. Verlander is the weakest link in a very formidable Astros rotation, and should be treated that way.

By the time the postseason rolls around, he should not be starting games for them. That's not a decision that the Astros will make considering Verlander's resume, but it's one that they should at the very least strongly consider.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work onThe Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Justin Verlander is rapidly regressing when he's able to take the mound

Let me start out by saying that what Justin Verlander is doing is incredible. At 40 years old he looked like an ace for the New York Mets and the Astros, and even pitched well last postseason. However, 41-year-old Verlander has not looked nearly the same — and that's when he's been fortunate to take the mound.

Shoulder and neck injuries have cost Verlander all but 13 starts this season. In those 13 starts, the right-hander has a 4.52 ERA in 71.2 innings of work — not what we're accustomed to seeing at all from Verlander. No, he hasn't been healthy for the full season, but he's only had two full seasons with higher ERAs with the most recent coming in 2014 — a decade ago.

Verlander's FIP is 4.73, the highest mark in a full season of his illustrious career. He's already allowed 12 home runs, the exact amount he gave up in his Cy Young season of 2022, and only six fewer than last season's total in over 90 fewer innings of work. His 7.5 percent walk rate is as high as it's been since 2017, the year Verlander was traded to Houston.

His velocity has seen a massive drop, as his 94.9 mph average fastball velocity in 2022 is down to 93.5 mph now. The result of that dip in velocity has been a very hittable pitcher.

As mentioned above, Verlander is allowing home runs at a higher rate than he has in recent memory. He also ranks in the 28th percentile in whiff rate and the 24th percentile in chase rate according to Baseball Savant. Hitters are making more contact, are hitting the ball harder, and are hitting the ball in the air more against Verlander.

What's scary about these struggles is that things could easily be worse for Verlander. Opponents have a .288 BAbip against him, and he's in the first percentile in ground ball rate. His stuff presumably will only continue to decline with age, and again, that's only if he can stay healthy.

The Astros have too many other more deserving starting pitchers

The Astros might have an excuse to brush aside Verlander's rough season if the rest of their rotation was subpar, but that's not the case. In fact, since the start of the second half, the Astros have led the majors with a 3.02 rotation ERA by a wide margin. All but three second-half starts have been made by pitchers not named Verlander.

Framber Valdez got off to a rocky start to his season but now has a 3.11 ERA in 24 starts and is fourth in the majors with a 2.08 ERA in the second half. His last time out saw him no-hit the Kansas City Royals, a team Houston might face in the postseason, through seven spotless innings. This start came four appearances after falling one out shy of a no-hitter against the Texas Rangers. He should be leading this rotation in October.

After Valdez, it wouldn't be surprising to see Hunter Brown's name mentioned. Brown, like Valdez, got off to a miserable start to his season, but is second in the majors with a 1.85 ERA in the second half and has a 2.42 ERA in 20 starts since May 1. The fact that Houston has won 11 of his last 15 starts doesn't hurt either.

Yusei Kikuchi was not having a good year in Toronto but after the Astros got him, he's been dominant, as evidenced by his 2.57 ERA in six starts with 47 strikeouts in 35 innings compared to 10 walks. The Astros are 6-0 in his starts, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all six appearances, and pitched well against teams like the Royals and Orioles who Houston might play in October.

Let's not forget Spencer Arrighetti, a pitcher who, like so many other Astros, got off to a poor start, but has a 2.77 ERA in his last nine starts. He flirted with a no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out, striking out 11 batters in 7.2 innings of work.

The Astros are already planning on moving Ronel Blanco to the bullpen to accommodate Verlander returning to a five-man rotation. That same Ronel Blanco who has a 3.03 ERA in 26 starts this season, has thrown a no-hitter, came close to another one, and just shut out the Royals for five innings his last time out.

Let's answer this one question honestly. Who, in 2024, would you pick Verlander over out of the five starters listed above if you need one playoff win. The answer should be nobody. Again, Verlander will be in their rotation, but he shouldn't be.

The Astros have already made this mistake before

The worst part about this whole Verlander conundrum is we've seen the Astros make this mistake before of relying on veterans when they have better options on their roster.

This season alone, we saw the Astros play Jose Abreu for a full month and proceed to bring him back after a failed minor league stint hoping to get something out of him when he was actively costing them games. For the last two seasons, we've seen the Astros use Rafael Montero often despite his struggles. Thankfully, both of those veterans have been DFA'd.

The worst case of this came last season when Martin Maldonado, a catcher who had poor defensive metrics and couldn't hit one bit was starting regularly in the postseason over Yainer Diaz, a catcher who had a breakout rookie season and has followed that up with another impressive year in 2024.

The Astros scored just six runs in their last two games of the 2023 ALCS - both losses. Perhaps starting one of their best hitters over the veteran Maldonado who was DFA'd by the worst team in MLB history this season would've helped.

To put it simply, the Astros have better options. No, they're not as decorated accolades-wise as Verlander is, but they're better in 2024 than Verlander is. The Astros cannot make the mistake of prioritizing veterans and their past production this time around. If they do, it might cost them come October.