Grading a proposed Blue Jays-Astros trade for Vlad Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been considered a dark horse World Series contender and up-and-coming club in recent seasons because of their abundance of young All-Star talent like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, and Alek Manoah. However, they have been eliminated and swept in the AL Wild Card series in three of the past four seasons and are at risk of falling out of the postseason race entirely in 2024 after a slow start to the MLB campaign (16-19).

Now, the Blue Jays must ask themselves if this current iteration of the roster has run its course and if it is worth pouring more money into the already franchise-record-setting payroll (approximately $231 million) they boast to ensure their core stays together, starting with Guerrero -- who will be a free agent after the 2025 season.

Guerrero is a three-time All-Star and has already established himself as one of the premier sluggers in baseball at only 25 years old. So, why would the Blue Jays not extend him? Jim Bowden of The Athletic suggested that Toronto will need to "seriously" consider dealing him ahead of the trade deadline on July 30 if they don't turn things around soon, labeling him as a player he'd like to see shipped ($) to the Houston Astros and crafting a hypothetical package that could make both sides happy.

Grading a proposed Blue Jays-Astros trade for Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Here, Bowden has the Astros sending two of their top-ranked prospects, first baseman/outfielder Joey Loperfido (No. 6 overall prospect) and outfielder Kenedy Corona (No. 12 overall prospect) to Toronto in exchange for Guerrero.

Only 24 years old, Loperfido was leading the minors in home runs (13) this season before recently being called up to the major league roster by the Astros, showcasing his potential to be a long-term first baseman for Houston if they decide to move on from Guerrero. He is batting .267/.313./.267 with two RBIs across 16 plate appearances thus far since his promotion.

Corona, who is also 24, possesses the tools to develop into a reliable and versatile everyday option who can play all three outfield positions and has the speed to run the bases well. He has produced a .185/.340/.309 slash line, adding one homer, nine RBIs, and 10 stolen bases through 100 plate appearances in the Double-A this season.

Meanwhile, Houston would finally find a way to get production from the first base position by landing Guerrero, something they've desperately been searching for -- given the lack of contribution they got from former MVP Jose Abreu before dropping the hammer on him and demoting him to the minors. Not only would this be a short-term fix, but it would potentially land them their cornerman of the future. However, the Astros would be paying a steep price to right their initial wrong of signing the 37-year-old to a lucrative three-year contract in 2022 by doing this.

Guerrero has struggled by his standards to start the 2024 season, batting .239/.338/.373 with four homers and 15 RBIs in 154 plate appearances. A change of scenery could do wonders for him and the Blue Jays, the latter of which could begin to turn the page after multiple years of disappointing results and replenish their 20th-ranked farm system (according to Keith Law of The Athletic).

This deal makes sense for both sides if Toronto continues to pile up losses and tumble down the standings to a point where they feel comfortable moving on from Guerrero. However, parting ways with a 25-year-old multi-time All-Star can be a daunting task that comes back to haunt the Jays, making this a potential buyer's beware moment. 

Toronto Blue Jays trade grade: B+ | Houston Astros trade grade: A-