Projected Houston Astros rotation after Yusei Kikuchi overpay

Overpays happen all the time around deadline time. Buyers are so desperate to fortify their rosters to the point where they're willing to surrender very good prospects in exchange for a player who can help them for just a couple of months in some situations. If it results in a World Series win nobody cares, but that's obviously a big if.

While overpays do happen, it's hard to get over what we saw on Monday involving the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays sent Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros in exchange for three prospects, two of which were among the best in Houston's system. For a rental with an ERA approaching 5.00, that feels like a major overpay.

Again, if the Astros win the World Series it doesn't matter, but that, of course, is a big if. Kikuchi helps them, but it's hard to peg them as the favorites even with the southpaw joining the fold.

As bad as this trade looks on paper, the Astros did get better, and Kikuchi joins what could be a really good rotation at full strength.

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Projecting Astros rotation after acquiring Yusei Kikuchi

While Kikuchi's 4.75 ERA in 22 starts and 115.2 innings of work leaves a lot to be desired, he's a better pitcher than his ERA shows. The 33-year-old has a 3.65 FIP and a 4.00 xERA, so they're expecting a bit of a regression to the mean from him. When right, he's a solid mid-rotation arm who will fit well on this team if he does bounce back down the stretch.

* It's important to note that Justin Verlander is currently on the IL with neck discomfort

With Verlander out, his spot in the rotation is taken by Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie who has had his ups and downs but thanks to all of the injuries Houston has dealt with on the pitching side, has made 19 starts at the MLB level this season.

The rest of the rotation looks quite formidable, especially if Kikuchi can have a strong finish to his season.

Framber Valdez got off to a bit of an uneven start to his season, but has pitched like the All-Star he has been in year's past recently, posting a 2.73 ERA in his last ten starts. Hunter Brown also got off to a slow start, but he has a 2.47 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) since the beginning of May. Having both of them in elite form has helped the Astros get back into the AL West race.

Ronel Blanco has trended in the wrong direction lately, but his season ERA is still below 3.00, showing how well he has pitched for most of the year.

When Verlander returns, the Astros will have one of, if not the best rotation in the AL, especially if Kikuchi pitches the way he is capable of. The package Houston gave up to get Kikuchi will never make sense, but if they win the World Series, that doesn't matter. Kikuchi at the bottom of the rotation could easily help them accomplish that lofty goal.