In the Market: Looking at the Top QB Prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft Class, Bowl Game edition
By Scott Rogust
That is a wrap on the 2023 college football season, as all bowl games have been completed and champions have been crowned. In terms of which team is the champions of all college football, they are the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines, who completed their undefeated season by beating the No. 2 Washington Huskies 34-13.
Not even a week after the conclusion of the season, there was a massive coaching carousel, with Alabama head coach Nick Saban retiring and Washington's Kalen DeBoer replacing him. Besides programs getting their rosters in order via the transfer portal and recruiting, it is officially NFL Draft season.
By Jan. 15, all football players need to declare for the NFL Draft. With that we will see where all the top quarterback prospects land in the pros. As for how the top prospects played during pro season, we must warn you, it wasn't many. Whether that's due to players sitting out to preserve themselves for the draft, or because they transferred to a new school. Let's look at the top prospects who did play in bowl games.
Previous editions of In the Market can be found below:
Taking Stock: How top 2024 NFL Draft QBs fared in Bowl Season
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Michael Penix Jr. played in two championship games in a week as Washington made it into the College Football Playoff. The Huskies played in the Sugar Bowl and the CFP National Championship Game. Now, we look at how he performed in each game.
Sugar Bowl
Facing off against the Texas Longhorns, the Huskies' offense was as electric as it had been all season. Texas' defense had no real answers for Washington, and Penix picked them apart.
The tone was set early when Penix connected on a deep pass to wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk on the opening drive, which resulted in a 77-yard gain. One play later, Dillon Johnson would run in from two yards outside of the end zone to put the Huskies up early 7-0.
In terms of Penix's most impressive throws, look no further than his touchdown pass to Jalen McMillan to put Washington up 28-21. Just look at this throw as it snuck through a closing window in the middle of the field. This should open up some eyes.
Penix finished the game completing 29-of-38 pass attempts for 430 yards and two touchdowns. Even when under pressure, Penix completed 9-of-15 throws for 151 yards and a touchdown on 16 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
This game had some throwing Penix up ahead of LSU's Jayden Daniels as the QB3 in the NFL Draft. One week later, his stock would take a massive hit.
CFP National Championship Game
Given how well Washington had played, there was a belief that Washington would be able to outscore Michigan in the CFP National Championship Game. After all, the majority of Michigan's offense comes from the running game. Well, college football fans learned that it's difficult to do anything against Michigan's defense. Penix saw that first-hand.
This was an uncharacteristic performance from Penix, who was under duress for the majority of the game. From getting hit hard, rushing his throws, and even overthrowing wide-open receivers downfield, this was a concerning showing from the Heisman finalist.
While Michigan's offense did sputter after taking an early 14-0 lead and allowing Washington to come back, the Huskies' chances ended in the fourth quarter. Penix would overthrow another pass and would get picked off by defensive back Mike Sainristil and returned for 81 yards. That set up a one-yard rushing touchdown from Blake Corum to put Michigan up 34-13 with under four minutes remaining.
Penix threw for 255 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while completing 27-of-51 passes. In terms of pressures, Penix was under duress on 20-of-53 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. When under pressure, Penix threw for 58 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while completing just 4-of-18 throws. Penix struggled, badly, in those situations.
It was a game to forget for Penix, and it stings even more that this will be his last game in college. While he does have tremendous throw power and accuracy, that Michigan game will stand out and have some teams and analysts questioning how highly he should be drafted in April.
Bo Nix, Oregon
Bo Nix had a heck of a final season with the Oregon Ducks, earning a trip to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Even though it was well known that Nix was entering the NFL Draft, Nix decided to play in the Fiesta Bowl for Oregon. Let's just say that Nix ended his collegiate career on a high note.
Nix lit it up against the Liberty Flame defense in Glendale, Ariz. After trailing 6-3, Nix led the Ducks to four consecutive touchdown drives before the end of the first half. Each of those drives ended with Nix throwing a touchdown pass, and it resulted in the team taking a 31-6 lead into halftime.
One touchdown pass that stands out was his throw to tight end Terrance Ferguson, which he recovered after slipping to put Oregon up 17-6.
The Ducks would score touchdowns on their first two drives of the second half. By early on in the fourth quarter, Nix received his curtain call from head coach Dan Lanning, allowing Oregon fans to give the quarterback one last round of applause as his college career wound down.
Nix completed 28-of-35 pass attempts for 363 yards and five touchdowns. The quarterback thrived on medium passes (10-19 yards), as he completed 7-of-9 throws for 141 yards and two touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus.
With the NFL Draft on the horizon, Nix has a chance to be a first-round quarterback, depending on which team is infatuated with him.
Quinn Ewers, Texas
Quinn Ewers was expected to be one of the top quarterback prospects in 2024. The thing is, Ewers is deciding to stay one more year at Texas, hoping to lead the Longhorns to a national title. It is a wise move, as he could very well be the QB1 in 2025 now that he won't have to contend with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.
Ewers played in the Sugar Bowl, hoping to lead Texas past Washington to make it to the CFP National Championship Game. There was hope for Texas, as Washington bungled the end-of-game scenario, allowing Ewers to lead the Longhorns into the red zone with a chance to win the game. However Ewers would complete a pass to Jaydon Blue for a one-yard loss while throwing three straight incompletions to secure the 37-31 win for Washington.
In the game, Ewers completed 24-of-43 pass attempts for 318 yards and one touchdown while running for 54 yards on eight carries.
Ewers will be back for the Longhorns for one more year, and we will see if he can propel himself into an early first-round prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft.
One 2024 NFL Draft QB who needs to show teams more after Bowl Season
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan and Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Yes, J.J. McCarthy is on this list once again. It's not really his fault though. He didn't have to lead the Michigan offense with his arm. Michigan's offense was run-heavy. When he does throw the football, you get mixed results.
In the Rose Bowl, McCarthy did throw for three touchdowns, but he was bailed out on some bad throws. A prime example, is Roman Wilson tracking down and leaping forward on a pass tipped at the line of scrimmage. In the CFP National Championship Game, McCarthy really didn't do too much with his arm, but made up for it with his ability to run.
Given the small sample size throughout his collegiate career, McCarthy is a gamble of a prospect. He does have the build NFL teams like in a quarterback and does have the throw power. But how will he be when the game rests on his shoulders and not on his star running back? He could stand for more playing time at Michigan or sit and learn on an NFL team.
Then there's Penix. The Sugar Bowl showed what he can do when having the necessary blocking. He can be one of the better passers in the NFL. But what if he gets drafted by a team without a quality offensive line? Well, we got a glimpse of that, when the Huskies o-line struggled to hold back Michigan's defenders. That should be concerning. Not only that, but Penix does have an injury history, with two ACL tears. Will a team take that gamble? Will they provide him with a great offensive lineman to help him thrive?
Updated NFL Draft order: Who's buying in the NFL?
- Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers (2-15))
- Washington Commanders (4-13)
- New England Patriots (4-13)
- Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
- Los Angeles Chargers (5-12)
- New York Giants (6-11)
- Tennessee Titans (6-11)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
- Chicago Bears (7-10)
- New York Jets (7-10)
- Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
- Denver Broncos (8-9)
- Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
- New Orlean Saints (9-8)
- Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
- Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
- Green Bay Packers (9-8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
- Arizona Cardinals (via Houston Texans (9-8))
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Miami Dolphins (11-6)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
- Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns (11-6))
- Detroit Lions (12-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
The NFL Draft order for non-playoff teams is set in stone. Now, we get a better idea of where prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake May could go.
No team has a more difficult offseason ahead of them than the Chicago Bears. They hold the No. 1 overall pick, and should have an easy decision in front of them. But Justin Fields made things much harder for the Bears organization, as he played well late in the season, showing he can be the quarteback to lead a franchise. Even Bears fans at Soldier Field were clamoring for the Bears to keep Fields.
The Bears are at risk of either passing on a legitimate quarterback prospect in Williams or Maye or watching Fields become a top quarterback in the NFL on another team. We do not envy them whatsoever. But drafting a new signal caller would strengthen general manager Ryan Poles' job security.
Congratulations to the Washington Commanders for "winning" the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft. After losing to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18, they secured the right to select either Williams or Maye.
Those teams outside of the top two, such as the New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, and Minnesota Vikings were without a doubt hoping the Arizona Cardinals would secure the No. 2 pick ahead of the Commanders and New England Patriots. The Giants, Falcons, and Vikings all desperately need to find a long-term answer at quarterback. Now, they have to hope the Bears decide to move forward with Fields and shop the No. 1 pick. If not, then cross their fingers that the Patriots don't take Jayden Daniels, because then they would really be in trouble.
Besides the Giants, Falcons, and Vikings, keep an eye on teams like the Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, and Denver Broncos. The Raiders are not moving forward with Jimmy Garoppolo and need a long-term answer under center. The Saints need to have a contingency plan in place at the quarterback position. They haven't had one since Drew Brees retired. Now's the time to get on it. As for the Broncos, they benched Russell Wilson late in the season despite still being in playoff contention. They are likely moving on from Wilson after the season, and head coach Sean Payton will have the chance to have his hand-picked quarterback.