March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on March 5
Time is running out for teams on the bubble to make a good impression with the NCAA Tournament's Selection Committee. The regular season is set to conclude on Sunday and some small conferences have already begun their conference tournaments, leaving few opportunities for teams on the fringe of the field to make one last positive impression on the committee.
The last week of results did lead to some significant movement on the Bubble Watch front as some new teams find themselves in the field while others have work to do to avoid a disappointing Selection Sunday. Let's take a look at where things stand as of March 5, beginning with the last four teams to avoid playing in the First Four.
Note: Records and NET Rankings are current as of March 5. Teams currently leading their conferences are not eligible for Bubble Watch since they are projected to receive their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Strength of schedule metrics are from KenPom.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Oklahoma | Florida Atlantic | TCU | Villanova |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big 12 | American | Big 12 | Big East |
Record | 19-10 (7-9) | 22-7 (12-4) | 19-10 (8-8) | 17-12 (10-8) |
NET | 41 | 35 | 39 | 26 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-9 | 1-2 | 3-10 | 4-8 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-1 | 6-3 | 4-0 | 6-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 15-2 | 12-0 | 7-3 |
Strength of Schedule | 69 | 90 | 55 | 11 |
Non-Conference Strength of Schedule | 324 | 41 | 354 | 48 |
Last Game | L 87-85 At No. 1 Houston | W 79-73 Vs. Tulane | L 87-75 At BYU | W 71-60 At Providence |
Next Game | Vs. Cincinnati 3/5 | At North Texas 3/6 | At West Virginia 3/6 | At Seton Hall 3/6 |
Oklahoma's resume has taken a hit with four losses in its past five games but all have come against ranked teams, which comes with the territory in the Big 12. Avoiding bad losses has been the name of the game for Oklahoma and if they can at least split the Cincinnati/At Texas games this week they should be fine ahead of the conference tournament.
Last year's Cinderella darling may be in some hot water for the dance as Florida Atlantic has just one Quad 1 win entering the last week of the regular season to go along with a pair of Quad 4 losses. This week's trip to North Texas and home date against Memphis isn't easy but the Owls need to sweep the pair to avoid sweating in the conference tournament.
Much like Oklahoma, TCU has taken advantage of its conference schedule, racking up three Quad 1 wins and all 10 of its losses have been to teams in that Quadrant. There is some danger here for the Horned Frogs, who played one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country, of being left out if they fall flat over the next two weeks.
Villanova's win at Providence over the weekend helped continued their ascent into the field on the strength of an elite schedule and some excellent Quad 1 wins. The week ahead offers the Wildcats a big opportunity to solidify their positioning ahead of the Big East Tournament.